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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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TokyoSushi · 28/08/2019 11:31

I can't link the Jon Worth diagram for some reason, but I have just printed it out in A3 to study carefully as we do every time there's a new one in our office.

TokyoSushi · 28/08/2019 11:31

Where's @BigChocFrenzy ?

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 11:32

Petition on gov website

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 11:32

Thanks Red....the point about civil unrest is sobering.

I can easily imagine it though - particularly attacks on MPs forming a Parliament elsewhere during prorogation.

...While I'm working my way through the memoir written in 1930s Germany I have been very, very glad of our gun control. In 1930s Germany small outbreaks of street shootings and killing of opponents became reasonably common. I do wonder if we would be in an even worse situation if people had easy access to weapons.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 11:33

Whose assassination would tip us into civil war I wonder?

Camomila · 28/08/2019 11:34

PMK

Does anyone else feel Brexit has made their lives a bit disjointed? Sort of like they have two completly different sets of worries...

Like on one hand I'm a normal mum living in a Western Liberal democracy thinking things like "I hope DS likes his new swimming lessons" or "I need to rearrange my room so there's room for the crib, oh no I'll need to go to ikea..."

and on the other hand I'm like "will my settled status get rejected?" "I hope there aren't staff or medicine shortages when I have my baby" "Why does this news story sound like it's from the novel 1984"

and then "oh look, they are suspending parliament" and in the next bit of news here are some people enjoying the bank holiday, with the uv warnings and pollen levels.

(Sorry that was a bit of a rant. I'm hoping you got what I meant though)

surabayajenny · 28/08/2019 11:36

Could we have a link to the petition please?

Hazardtired · 28/08/2019 11:40

camomila yes with you. I was stood reading about the striving for gender equality in Riverford veg company this morning. Now I've just made my DP panic by explaining how we're entering a dictatorship and I'm not sure if it can be stopped.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 28/08/2019 11:40

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157

Link to petition

surabayajenny · 28/08/2019 11:41

Thanks lonelyplanetmum. Have added my name but haven't yet received the email to confirm and sign which they say they have sent. Wonder how long that will take...?

AnxietyDream · 28/08/2019 11:42

I have things I need to do today, instead of watching this trainwreck. But I can't seem to concentrate on anything else.

LouiseCollins28 · 28/08/2019 11:43

Thanks Red, as ever. My first reaction to this was in the Margaret’s Beckett category of genuine disbelief. First thought was that this was “kite flying” to provoke a reaction, but it seems not. 3 quick observations if I may.

Speaker Bercow’s comments: he along with others has employed the term “constitutional outrage” to describe this situation. This is either a genuine indication of its seriousness, or a signal of a radical departure from his role as a neutral arbiter in the HoC. Take your pick

What’s the plan? I heard a very good explanation gaming out what Boris is attempting to do from I think Lewis Goodall on All Out Politics on Sky News. Surprisingly (to me) his explanation ended with a “deal” result not a “no deal” one.

What about the response? Greive and Hammond have echoed the “constitutional outrage” language and the former expressed confidence that it could be stopped. Not surprised on either count. Lastly, also heard an interview with Green Party co leader Johnathan Bartley where he called for legal, parliamentary, and protest elements to stop this happening. He called protesters out onto the streets around Westminster. So if this happens let’s be very clear about who called those people out there first.

Thanks again Red.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 28/08/2019 11:44

What happens if one of the Tory MPs walks?

Can Bozo still prorogue Parliament with no majority?

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:45

Just posted on the BoZo thread an explanation which perhaps is a little clearer than my OP.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3677173-BoZo-off-today-to-ask-Queen-to-suspend-parliament?watched=1&msgid=89640398#89640398

OP posts:
ContinuityError · 28/08/2019 11:45

Bercow's not happy

I’ve got him pencilled in as Grumpy at the very least.

Westminstenders: Prorogation
Jaffacakebeast · 28/08/2019 11:46

This is what happens when MPs stand on a manifesto they fundamentally disagree with just to keep their jobs. They should be sacked and MPs who actually want to brexit as per ref should be in, therefore no need for all this shite

Wakemeuuuup · 28/08/2019 11:47

Surabaya I signed it and got my confirmation immediately but it went into my junk mail so have a look there

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 28/08/2019 11:48

Apparently Joanna Cherry is concerned bthat Johnson may shut down the Scottish parliament (and presumably Wales as well).

Does the government have that sort of control over the devolved parliaments?

prettybird · 28/08/2019 11:50

Posted roughly this at the end of the last thread.

Listened to Dominic Grieve saying on Sky News that he's not going into detail about the methods that they will use to thwart BloJob because BloJob is "playing dirty" so is not going to make it easy for him by revealing their hand. Shock

That's the former UK AG saying, very calmly, that the current UK PM, nominally of the same party, is "playing dirty" ShockSad

....plus some two tiered cats enjoying their place in the sun to reduce the blood pressure Wink

Westminstenders: Prorogation
RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:50

Key point.

Johnson refuses to resign after VoNC around the 17th October.

Is a lame duck so can't do anything through parliament. But COULD invoke the Civil Contingencies Act for those two weeks to enable the executive to do whatever the fuck it likes to get past 31st October without extending A50.

It also sets up a narrative of remainers being to blame for any possible civil unrest or issues with supply chains.

Then a GE happens post 31st Oct to resolve issues. But Johnson has a nice little narrative to help him out with no deal problems.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 11:51

Thanks, red 💐
I'll keep a close eye on the thread(s) this WE

@red Am I right that if the HoC passed a VoNC with a named replacement PM either before prorogation or right after the Queen's speech,
then we could get a new PM in time to ask for an extension?

(if the EU agree) that new PM could then chuck the red lines and negotiate a new PD

I'd expect Bercow to rule that this new PM is the valid one, not BJ

and btw, that would be the time for the Queen to intervene:
if BJ refuses to step down after the HoC have voted for another PM
However, if MPs won't step up themselves to vote in an alternative PM, then she can't just sack BJ and appoint one

Incredibly, still looks like Remainers and soft Leavers can't agree to do this, so the votes aren't (yet) there

In that case, MPs might be able to stop No Deal, but they just prefer it to JC (or Clarke etc) as PM and / or accepting possibly a soft SM-type Brexit

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 11:52

As a metaphor for the Norman grasp on the UK ..

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-49487078

Somehow it feels like you could still spend them ...

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 11:52

oops, meant for new thread ! BlushBlush

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 11:57

We've seen that the hardline Brexiters don't care about NI or even Scotland leaving the UK,

so we really shouldn't be surprised they don't care about basically starting a civil war

However, this again shows the weaknesses of the British Constitution:

Too much depends on "gentlemen's agreements" not to do certain things, rather than making those actions illegal.
Of course, no fanatical leaders of the right or left - precisely those against whom we need protection - would be a "gentleman" of either sex in the old sense of behaving decently when having the power to do otherwise