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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
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prettybird · 28/08/2019 12:03

Just told dh that I've already offered lodging at our place for the required 6 weeks for those that want to get on the register for an Indyref2. He didn't wince Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 12:05

He's a keeper, pretty

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 12:07

David Gauke@DavidGauke (Tory ex-minister)

Put to one side your views of a no deal Brexit.

Imagine that Jeremy Corbyn is PM, pursuing a policy that is unpopular in Parliament & in the country.

At a crucial moment he finds a way to evade Parliamentary scrutiny for several weeks.

This is a dangerous precedent.

prettybird · 28/08/2019 12:08

Does the government have that sort of control over the devolved parliaments?

Yes. Sad

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 12:14

Yes - illustrating once again how little power Scotland, Wales & NI have in the UK, compared to small countries in the EU

e.g. the power Ireland has over any Brexit deal and the EU standing by them

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 12:15

Another big bung coming up ....

Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall

DUP welcome the Queen’s Speech, as well they might because it almost certainly means more money.

Their confidence and supply agreement with the Conservatives has to be renewed with in this new session.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 12:19

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

Proroguing Parliament until October 14 to ensure No Deal still possible is the most audacious and high risk move of Boris Johnson’s premiership.

If he fails, likely to be mortally damaged.
Also an admission that rebels would have succeeded.
It’s winner takes all now.

Is Boris’s real aim to invite on a no confidence vote next week and force a general election on his preferred battle ground?

Also high risk, as a majority with the Brexit Party still alive is v unsure, and a pact with Farage will mean having to govern with him.

Grinchly · 28/08/2019 12:21

Guardian reporting that Dominic is organising a humble address. Will demonstrate to the monarch directly strength of feeling against prorogation, but won't prevent it I don't think, but happy to be corrected.

The fat is well and truly in the fire.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 12:22

Very prompt - they obviously researched this some time ago

Commons Libraryry@commonslibrary*y

The Prime Minister has asked the Queen to suspend (prorogue) Parliament in the 2nd sitting week of September.

How does #proroguingg^ Parliament work?
And what are the consequences?

Our recent briefing explains what you need to know
http://bit.ly/2MGiRlq
#prorogation

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 12:27

BJ may yet achieve an Article 7 process against the UK - we assumed Hungary or Poland were the only countries in danger of that sanction

View from EU, usually close to Commission

Sums up disbelief in Germany too, after first reports of prorogation
More like how a banana republic with a history of dictatorships behaves, not a modern European country

Fabian Zuleeg@FabianZuleeg (european Policy Centre)

I find it astonishing & frightening that in a mature democracy like the UK

the whole parliamentary process & the powers of government & parliament seem entirely uncertain

& that nobody seems to know who will prevail in case of conflict

Thanksforallthecod · 28/08/2019 12:41

What happens if MPs try to meet anyway in spite of the suspension?

GirlsBlouse17 · 28/08/2019 12:43

PMK

NoWordForFluffy · 28/08/2019 12:43

A rather scared PMK.

Thanks, Red.

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 12:43

BigChoc I find it surprising that the EU didn't think this a possibility tbh.

It's the civil war dynamic repeated. Its not unprecedented historically even if it seems unlikely for a modern democracy.

The EU is well aware of how democracies fold and fail.

I think the issue is the same one that plagued the Arab spring. Western Liberal democracies assumed that the revolutions and unrest were about democracy. This was somewhat arrogant.

It was actually about a desire for dignity.

And repeated in the Brexit narrative is this desire from certain quarters for dignity and a backlash against people 'looking down their noses' which was hyper inflated by austerity. Its very much linked to class and an easy manipulation to make by anyone who wanted to do so along those fault lines.

It can then be dressed as 'democratic' (because it has to be).

There are many reflections to make about both the Royalists and Cromwells forces. Not many of them bode well.

OP posts:
cherin · 28/08/2019 12:44

That’s because you didn’t have a revolution or an occupation in recent history. All countries that were taken over by Germany during Ww2 had to re-form a government and in essence write or re write in modern language their constitution. And you can go and buy a tome that defines (to better or worse level of detail) who does what and when in bookshops for every European country. The U.K. never had the need to “put everything in writing in a single document”. The flexibility is showing a double edge...

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 12:44

BJ will try to have the main Chamber closed
but I don't know if Bercow can stop that, unless MPs go for that VoNC before

More likely that MPs will witter around, then come back for the Queen's speech and their last chance to do anything

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 12:46

What happens if MPs try to meet anyway in spite of the suspension?

We have two governments competing for legitimacy which is a full blown constitutional crisis and 'a bit of a issue'.

(This might be understating it)

OP posts:
ARoomWithoutADoor · 28/08/2019 12:46

Bigly placematting, in disbelief...
Thanks, Red

BigChocFrenzy · 28/08/2019 12:47

red The EU got taken in by the "Mother of Parliaments"
and also the UK's history, from joining the Common Market until 2010, of generally being one of the adults
even if a whingeing one

Well, once a formerly good reputation is ruined, it takes decades to repair.

EllebellyBeeblebrox · 28/08/2019 12:47

Fucking unbelievable. Genuinely appalled at what this is turning into Sad

PerkingFaintly · 28/08/2019 12:48

I'm pretty sure that damage to our democratic process was on the wish list of some of the Brexit funders, so they must be rubbing their hands with glee at the moment.

Still getting a huge amount of bang for their buck.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 12:48

Where are all ourleave posters????

Our celebrating the right wing coup???

Take back sovereignty? Lose it conpletely more like...

Captaindobbin · 28/08/2019 12:48

I’m trying and failing to understand what’s going on today. In simple terms, why has BJ stopped parliament? I mean what are his reasons according to him?

ImNotYourGranny · 28/08/2019 12:49

"Taking back control" has never looked so sinister. - Guy Verhofstadt, chief Brexit representative for the European parliament

FMFL · 28/08/2019 12:50

Furious PMK. Cheers Red.