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Brexit

Westminstenders: Prorogation

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/08/2019 11:10

Its come to this.

Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen for permission to suspend parliament.

There are several legal challenges in the system to prevent this from happening.

It is unlikely to be able to stopped and the Queen is unlikely to intervene either. To do so would expose the Monarchy directly to a political threat which could lead to the downfall of the Crown if the cards lined up. Johnson has deliberate set up the situations where if she does, he is on the 'side of the people' whilst she is on the 'side of the establishment'. If she does nothing, she might be exposed still but none action, can be spun as political neutrality.

As David Allen Green points out:
^David Allen Green @davidallengreen
This is now the realm of pure politics

No court is likely to intervene - and it is not obvious what remedy a court could even grant so as to satisfactorily resolve the matter

"Not justiciable" as judges sometimes say

As we have seen so far, the opposition have been completely outclassed when it comes to 'pure politics' partly because of tribalism, partly because they lacked the capacity to understand and imagine how bad this could get - they never thought Johnson would go this far (massive tactical mistake) and partly because they so far do not understand whats driving this and have not produced and alternative narrative and explaination to counter those social and political fractures. Indeed everything they are doing is only serving to reinforce and widen those rifts and their complete lack of self awareness has been to blame. Johnson not only sees these fractures, he understands them, knows how to exploit them and most importantly is willing to do anything to retain power.

Authoritarians are always driven by this lust for power and are won't stop for anything. Thats why they are so dangerous and why checks and balances were put into the system. The trouble is the opposition didn't read the signs and are flapping in the wind now its reached the point where they suddenly realise its too far gone to be able to do much. The runaway train is firmly off the rails.

This all comes a day after the opposition apparently have agree a strategy to oppose No Deal. Which seems to include a VoNC. Remember this will always require Tory Rebels as even working together the Opposition haven't got the numbers - especially considering there are a few Labour Brexiteers.

This is being framed as a coalition of anti-democrats (which is something of a contradiction on several levels) by the government and the Brexit Party.

They have signed a pledge to set up an alternative parliament if government does prorogue parliament. This is full on civil war era stuff aka as a full blown constitutional crisis. Its actively into dangerous terrority. And as such, we very much into talking about the very real possibility of civil unrest. This is no longer something that can be considered hyperbole.

The timetable of this would see parliament prorogued just a few days into September (next week), closed to prepare for a new Queen's Speech and returning around the 17th October remembering the crucial final EU sumit on the 17th October. A VoNC doesn't necessarily mean the government will go though. There is no legal requirement to force the government to stand down. We may yet end up with a situation of two governments claiming legitmacy at the same time in late October. Prime Ministers Corbyn and Johnson.

A GE might eventually be the result of such a constitutional crisis but we would be way past 31st October before that happens.

Would we end up with an extension in such circumstances? Well the Prime Minister has to ask for one formally from the EU and the EU have to agree to one.

The problem being, who do the EU recognise as our PM?

We also have things coming into legal effect on the 1st November which would otherwise need revoking by parliament.

Which Parliament?

Things are going to get very very messy indeed.

OP posts:
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Myriade · 28/08/2019 13:42

DGR I agree, the last british civil war was in NI but i have to say, I dont fancy a repeat of the Troubles in England.

Having said that, seeing the actions of some Brexiters and how some MPs have had to take precautions to their own safety (eg stay wth their back on the wall in the underground), I can see those people resorting to more 'practical' methods.
Would Remainers feel so strongly about the EU to become as violent??

prettybird · 28/08/2019 13:42

Louise - Dominic Grieve called out Bozo as "playing dirty" - which you could also say was inflammatory - and he's nominally in the same party as him Confused

If our PM starts doing inflammatory things, like an outrageously long prorogation, which if it were happening in, say, a Central African republic to avoid what was going to be a potentially unpopular action, would be called out as the action of a banana republic, then he is the one that should take responsibility for the consequences.

Not Bartlett for calling him out on it and saying what it was.

Bagadverts · 28/08/2019 13:43
Sad
MitziK · 28/08/2019 13:44

Oh, and whilst there was always a subset of Nazi Punk (as compared to using imagery to shock and offend, rather than actually believe that shit), the vast majority then and now are left wing and think this is appalling (or other words to that effect).

Mistigri · 28/08/2019 13:45

Personal opinion: Johnson has gamed this quite well. If this works he has a good shot at getting the WA through parliament with ND as the alternative. Alternatively if the opposition forces a VONC he goes to the country on a parliament vs the people platform.

Remain are still in the game though.

Would be a completely different game if Labour had backed the Cherry amendment...

Ellie56 · 28/08/2019 13:47

However many signatures that petition gets, does anybody really think the current shitshow we have for a government is going to take any notice of it? Sad

EllebellyBeeblebrox · 28/08/2019 13:47

icantreachthepretzels
I'm with you, this total and utter disaster is making me spit. I have also emailed my revolting toad of a Tory MP several times about the situation, and although I had a reply on fancy paper it was quite literally a copy and paste crock of bullshit. It makes me want to resort to posting him dog turds.

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 13:48

What are the european papers saying?

First thing that caught my eye, and made me suspect there's a lot of French journalists reading MN (these threads in particular) was one asking "What starsign is your cat ...." Grin

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 13:50

Dear European press;

We aren’t all fuckwits.

Thank you.

Love,
Hoooo

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 13:51

Oh, and whilst there was always a subset of Nazi Punk

Harrow is next door to Southall, so I knew that very well Sad. That said, a lot of the punk use of Nazi imagery was "ironic" as I saw it ...

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 13:51
  • However, I've long thought it possible that if the govt gets all macho at mass protests and troops are called in, that we see a Bloody Sunday*

I may be naive but I don't think the Govt has the same hold over the Forces and Police that they used to. If I had to choose today I'd trust the Forces & Police over BoJo and cronies.

Hoooo · 28/08/2019 13:52

mojo
Then you are a fool :(

flouncyfanny · 28/08/2019 13:55

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 13:56
  • The former Lord Chancellor has just explained how this is not normal. Historically, in the past 10 years, the longest Parliament has been suspended in advance of the Queen's Speech is 20 days. This is FIVE WEEKS. Don't be fooled.*

I absolutely know it's not normal...my argument was more that it isn't technically unconstitutional (as far as I can see, obviously there will be a review in the Scottish courts, but it appears unlikely to be successfully challenged).

So...not normal, but not illegal.

wheresmymojo · 28/08/2019 14:01

Can someone/RTB explain to a non brit what is that britsh way?

We probably won't have a full on civil war, just the occasional riot and death plus Troubles in Ireland/NI. There will be more Eton educated smug fuckwits and more tea.

Camomila · 28/08/2019 14:05

Myriade I don't think so. I think the people who are most worried about Brexit are all very unlikely to riot (or in some cases even be able to take part in peaceful protests)
EU citizens - scared re: their settled status
People with long term health conditions - probably most worried about safety, kettling etc.
The very poor - can't afford the fare to London/day off work/childcare.

DGRosetti Frank Turner did a lot of protest music, especially his earlier stuff, he is a very MC and from Winchester/Chichester (one of the two anyway) so I don't know how 'relevant' he is to WC youth.

BubblesBuddy · 28/08/2019 14:07

It could be illegal if it’s held to be unreasonable. That would be for the courts to decide and that’s what a court case would turn on. Is 5 weeks reasonable? Yes, if you want Brexit at all it’s, No if Parliament is supreme and must be allowed to discuss the PMs actions.

Boris has, so far, done one PMQT. One. That’s outrageous in the light of today’s developments which suspend PMQT and any questioning of the PM. Teresa May was facing the House week in, week out. This conniving rogue is pushing his “King of the World” dream and needs to be stopped.

horseshit · 28/08/2019 14:07

Re: European press - the <a class="break-all" href="//url=www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/brexit-premierminister-boris-johnson-will-parlament-in-zwangspause-schicken-a-1284008.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">SPIEGEL (German) calls it an extremely politically charged move, but other than that their reporting is very matter-of-fact, although they give more quotes to opponents of BJ’s latest fuckery. There’s a survey underneath the article that’s a bit more interesting. 61% of respondents think BJ won’t get away with it (the option is literally worded as “No, he won’t get away with this”), vs ~30% who think it’ll pan out (“Yes, his plan will work out”, and plan very much reads like “scheme”).

The comments are brutal, “wannabe dictator”, “mini-Trump”, “impertinence incarnate” are just from the first page, along with one exasperation-filled paragraph that pretty much says “Good, can they fuck off already”, although that sentiment seems to be in the minority.

BubblesBuddy · 28/08/2019 14:07

At all costs....

GingerPCatt · 28/08/2019 14:08

I’m an American living in the UK and have been learning so much from these threads. I have a question- wasn’t there a vote awhile ago that parliament had to be sitting in the run up to B-day? Does parliament reconvening on the 17th fulfil this?

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 14:08

Frank Turner did a lot of protest music, especially his earlier stuff, he is a very MC and from Winchester/Chichester (one of the two anyway)

Well a lot of old-style socialists (Tony Benn) were quite posh, really

Speaking of Tony Benn, never have his 5 tests been so necessary.

BubblesBuddy · 28/08/2019 14:10

It will sit for a few days but will not have time to question the PM or Ministers effectively or push through any legislation to stop No Deal. This is why he has done it!

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 14:10

It could be illegal if it’s held to be unreasonable. That would be for the courts to decide and that’s what a court case would turn on. Is 5 weeks reasonable?

If 5 weeks is reasonable, why not 5 months. Or years ? Where is the line ?

DGRossetti · 28/08/2019 14:11

Also, if the Monarchs job is just to rubber stamp whatever they are told, where do I apply ?

BubblesBuddy · 28/08/2019 14:12

Tony Benn would have been Viscount Stansgate but he gave up this inherited title to sit in the Commons.