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Brexit

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:31

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

OP posts:
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NoWordForFluffy · 20/05/2019 07:19

I'm fucked off with the BBC. And shoddy journalism in general. There's been so little good journalism since the referendum. Why aren't journalists challenging the lies and illegality and drumming these home at every opportunity? It's infuriating and sickening in equal measure that politicians are bare-faced lying / bullshitting in interviews and they're not being challenged robustly or at all. Angry

Spindelina · 20/05/2019 07:40

I'm a hair-on-fire both as bad as each other on "other issues" floater between LD (who swept the board at LE) and Green (specifically Molly SC). I can believe remainvoter that the LD seat is safe - picked up since 2015 - so I'm going with Green.

Iambuffy · 20/05/2019 07:47

Yeah

Staying LD

Peregrina · 20/05/2019 08:01

They certainly underestimated the magnitude of the LD vote in the Local elections - not only where the seats lost by the Tories, but gained by huge majorities. That didn't make the press of course, but nor does it follow that the same will happen in the EU elections.

1tisILeClerc · 20/05/2019 08:05

That BBC piece is an interesting bit of 'fluff'. Leavers being 3 retired people from England but the guy in the shop and the lady in the chipshop having immigrated in the last 15 and ??? years seeing the negative effects of the leave decision, and that they appreciate the unity of Europe.

SKY this morning has a piece about Derbyshire and the Tory MP refusing to vote. The best line was from a woman that is not going to bother voting because there is no democracy........
Is that an earth tremour or Ms Pankhurst?

Peregrina · 20/05/2019 08:15

www.ft.com/content/c0576116-7a42-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560 an FT piece which talks about Cabinet in no-deal Brexit Row

  • maybe paywalled, so do a google search for the headline. A choice extract: But Mrs May’s colleagues are warning the Eurosceptics that if Britain heads down a no-deal route — Brexit day is scheduled for October 31 — the country and the Conservative party would be imperilled. I.e. ignore the potential break up of the UK, and worry about the fate of the Tory party.
1tisILeClerc · 20/05/2019 08:57

From the daily fail:
{EU will NOT renegotiate Theresa May's Brexit deal even if the UK has a new Prime Minister, Irish foreign minister warns}

Simon Coveny simply stating the EU line again (which is fine).
What is depressing is the complete drivel that the 'comments' are coming up with.
A lobotomy would be a significant upgrade for most 'contributors'.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 20/05/2019 09:02

I woke up to lies and utter drivel from the Brexit chairman, which were barely refuted, though they did bring up the Aaron Banks and foreign investment issues.. How depresssing.

JQBased · 20/05/2019 09:09

Brexit Party will make big gains, I expect Lab and Con to get utterly hammered. However, it will be interesting to see who votes where in Europe. German manufacturing slump is finally making huge headlines, this was forecast late last year. Italian banks are in massive trouble. France, social turmoil aside, economy is losing pace. Across the Eurozone there are huge economic woes but the biggest news is with Germany and Italy. Germany keeps the Eurozone above water and Italian banks are big enough to collapse the EU entirely.

Peregrina · 20/05/2019 09:12

Italian Banks have been in trouble since the year dot. Which in a way is a little surprising, because they invented double entry book-keeping back in 1492, or the Lombards did, so you would think they had time to get themselves sorted out by now!

Motheroffourdragons · 20/05/2019 09:18

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

bellinisurge · 20/05/2019 09:25

Thank God you have come along @JQBased . Really make me want to vote for the Brexshit Party now because they have a magic wand and I now believe in fairies and unicorns.

jasjas1973 · 20/05/2019 09:34

@JQBased

How does the BXP propose to solve these EU and UK growth issues? With 50% of our exports going to EU, any downturn there will affect us too, global growth is falling and the world is facing USA/China/Iran problems.
Brexit means we lose 60 worldwide FTA's over night.

Or will Farage tell us all on May 26th ?

Peregrina · 20/05/2019 09:35

Oh yes, smash the UK and smash the EU also! What could possibly go wrong?

whymewhynow · 20/05/2019 09:41

Back to the Remain Voter advice, Best for Britain has posted
this tool that allows you to play with the vote share of each party to see how a small % increase or decrease can affect a party's seats. In my region, it seems to back up RV's recommendation.

Stilltalkstotrees · 20/05/2019 10:17

Which region are you why?

TheElementsSong · 20/05/2019 10:26

We got the Remain Voter email too and also have been looking at the BfB polls for our region. It looks like the LibDem seat is fairly secure, but then a bit of a knife-edge whether we can squeak an additional Green seat at the expense of Labour. DH has already postal-voted LD, so we've been discussing whether I should cast my vote for the Greens or the LDs.

CrunchyCarrot · 20/05/2019 10:52

Has anyone got an inkling of what this 'bold' offer of May's is going to be? Admit I snorted at the idea she's going to bring anything new to the table with her WA. Perhaps she means the font... WA written in bold! Grin

1tisILeClerc · 20/05/2019 11:04

CrunchyCarrot
Oi, I said that yesterday!
Well you can almost guarantee the WA has not been touched so it can only be some 'assurances' about aspects of the PD.
One of the papers yesterday had some things mentioned, perhaps workers rights and a few other bits, but of course Labour, that she is sort of trying to get on board, are not really having it as anyone after Theresa can simply rip it up.
The 'talks' can only be about what happens AFTER the WA is signed but it seems the 'logical order' as defined by the EU is being ignored by almost everyone in the UK. Depressingly as far as I can see all the 'news' outlets are still calling the WA 'Theresa's deal'. Until everyone understands that it is NOT a deal but a routemap, things won't really progress.

LoonvanBoon · 20/05/2019 11:14

That's interesting, TheElements. The BfB website wasn't working for our region yesterday - showed the SNP on 38%! Grin Glad it's sorted out now.

So on that showing Labour will be losing their 2nd seat & both the Lib Dems & Greens should get one each, just a bit less certain for the Greens. 13% vote share would definitely have been enough in previous elections, but I guess it depends how accurate the polling is.

There are potentially a lot of wasted remain votes there, especially if a good amount of the Labour votes are from remainers. But I guess anyone still sticking with Labour wouldn't be prepared to do a tactical vote. I do wish CUK had sat these elections out, though.

1tisILeClerc · 20/05/2019 11:14

Guardian report about Hancock who seems to be starting to get the plot this morning.
So May has the facts in her head, Hancock is about half way there, only another 648 to go!

1tisILeClerc · 20/05/2019 11:16

Perhaps CUK is short for cuckoo, chucking eggs and fledglings out of the nest.

woman19 · 20/05/2019 11:28

You do know what it means in youth parlance, LeClerc?
Initially I rather liked the word's Shakespearean allusion, but then I realised it's a very Clockwork Orange linguistic adaptation. Sinister in extremis. Droog speak.

LoonvanBoon · 20/05/2019 11:32

Oh God, some of those polls! 42% to the turquoise party in the SW? 37% in the SE too. FFS.

DGRossetti · 20/05/2019 11:37

Has anyone got an inkling of what this 'bold' offer of May's is going to be?

Well Tory SOP is to make a really big splash about something announced ages ago as if it were new (they may have got the idea from nuLab ...). Remember when the headlines were full of "NHS spending increase" stories, only to discover it was merely a re-announcement of the already stated budgets ??????

If the stakes weren't so high, the sight of senior politicians and the PM doing an impression of a rat in a maze.

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