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Brexit

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:31

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

OP posts:
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CrunchyCarrot · 20/05/2019 11:39

Haha sorry LeClerc I have not read back - my mind is too boggled by all of this... train wreck. Confused.

Yes 'May's Deal' isn't really one at all, wish they'd get that straight! Seems to me whatever she's bringing to the table it'll get voted down, since she's (allegedly!) on her way out the door. And of course by whenever she does bring her WA back, we'll have had no doubt dreadful results in the EU elections (for the main parties, anyway).

If it is a routemap it must be one of the most confusing ones ever!

bellinisurge · 20/05/2019 12:16

Well, I have the UKIP election leaflet now. To go with my Brexshit Party and Yaxley Lennon one. No one else has bothered so far. Good job I give a shit.

BollocksToBrexit · 20/05/2019 12:26

I don't see how Theresa May can offer anything. She doesn't have any political capital left at all. She's a zombie prime minister clinging to power with no ability to use that power. She's now the #1 block to any progress either way with brexit.

DGRossetti · 20/05/2019 12:37

There's an additional complication that any "deal" needs to be viewed against the possibility of a GE and subsequent volte-face by the UK.

There's something deeply satisfying seeing the biggest problem for Brexit is how to set it in stone using a constitution that - for all it's flaws - has never recognised that state of affairs. IOW do an end run against parliamentary sovereignty.

Littlespaces · 20/05/2019 12:48

It is all so daft. The age profile means it will be reversed.

Ugh. I had a UKIP leaflet addressed to me personally. Angry

woodpigeons · 20/05/2019 12:51

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/20/change-uk-scottish-choice-david-macdonald-urges-fellow-candidates-to-back-lib-dems?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

The top Change UK choice in Scotland at this week’s European elections has written an open letter to his party’s fellow candidates urging them to consider following his lead and voting for the Liberal Democrats or other remain parties.

In a damaging blow for the fledging party, David Macdonald announced last week that to avoid splitting the remain vote in Scotland, pro-remain voters who also opposed Scottish independence should instead back the Lib Dems.

Macdonald, an independent councillor in East Renfrewshire, said it was important to “shore up the remain vote”. He recommended that in other places where Change UK were polling at low levels, voters should switch to other remain parties, recommending that Green and Lib Dem voters could do the same in areas where their party was lagging.

CrunchyCarrot · 20/05/2019 12:53

Me too, littlespaces, just got it in this morning's delivery. Confused

1tisILeClerc · 20/05/2019 12:54

{If it is a routemap it must be one of the most confusing ones ever!}

Apart from the Citizens rights, the exit bill and the backstop, the rest (I believe) is essentially a list of the hundreds of legal aspects that link the UK to the EU. The EU have defined what the status will be when these are fully ratified and the PD defines when and I believe negotiably, how 'much' leave there will be. Thus it is a 'path to departure' but once the fundamentals are signed off (the 3 initial parts) the remainder could be subject to negotiation. Since this has turned into such a complete dogs dinner the EU will not attempt to look at the WA 'trajectory' until it is signed. Once in transition (if the UK wants it) items might be revisited such as the Canada plus and the various other permutations.

Woman19. Although it might disappoint some, I keep breathing, so I am not young any more so no I don't know the 'young' meaning.

1tisILeClerc · 20/05/2019 13:07

I was going to add that it shows how out of touch CUK are to have chosen a name that can be taken as is, or easily abbreviate to mean something negative. They needed a good 'branding' expert to look at the pitfalls.
Then I see on the sidebar that there is a thing about 'Poxclin'. I feel they haven't thought that name out particularly well.

woman19 · 20/05/2019 13:12

urging them to consider following his lead and voting for the Liberal Democrats or other remain parties

@tnewtondunn
Change UK might not exist by the time of the next general election, interim leader Heidi Allen says - and hints at a merger with Lib Dems: “The format might be slightly different. I see a modern world of coalition” #r4today
wtf can't the SNP/greens/tiggers/LD sort themselves out today. Angry

I keep breathing, so I am not young any more so no I don't know the 'young' meaning
It's a crude/ sexist version of 'cuckold' LeClerc. A young voter pointed out to me that the contemporary version is what the 'yoof 'hear when that Change UK's acrononym is used. Blush
you're young at heart though. Smile

QueenOfThorns · 20/05/2019 13:14

I had a little play with the slider thingies for the NW region. I won the LDs a second seat by shifting all the CUK votes to them, but it was at the expense of the Tories rather than the Brexshits.

In contrast to Remain Voter, they seem to think that the Greens have a seat in the bag, and the LDs are close to achieving a second, so it would probably be more sensible to vote LD.

Mistigri · 20/05/2019 13:16

Gordon Brown on Farage:

"He won't be remembered as a man of the people, he'll be remembered as a man of the PayPal."

Grin
woman19 · 20/05/2019 13:21

Grin misti even bbc tweeted it.

@BBCPolitics
"Nigel Farage is not going to be remembered as he wants, as the man of the people – he's going to be remembered as the man of the PayPal"…

1tisILeClerc · 20/05/2019 13:29

In a 'bored' moment years ago I was curious about how many English words there were (OED) and IIRC it is around 750,000. This represents learning over 10 new words a day for the whole of a 90 year lifespan.

tobee · 20/05/2019 13:57

Now I've started to worry that not enough young people are going to vote. Are your dc and gdc going to vote? And their friends?

Peregrina · 20/05/2019 14:00

Well in Oxford the LibDems have been actively canvassing in the wards with high numbers of students. Reports are promising, but you can never tell, a massive storm on the day of the election could keep many at home. At least it's probably just before they finish for the summer.

Littlespaces · 20/05/2019 14:19

tobee

Met up with friends at weekend. 50 /50 Remain Leave area.

Adult children travelling back from all over to vote. Postal votes arranged. Proxy votes arranged. Whole of ds's sixth form year 13 comp registered to vote. 90% plus Remain.

tobee · 20/05/2019 14:19

Damn! Those requests are just not getting through about McDonald's not selling milkshakes. Farage has been doused again in a load of milky gunk! Newcastle this time.

Disclaimer:- I know we shouldn't be advocating such be tactics with the lactics, and some people will be appalled by this treatment of poor Nige, all publicity is good publicity etc, but it's still fun to see for a nanosecond.

Just seen Esther McVey launching her "blue collar Conservatism" campaign Hmm. God she's so blatantly all about herself. She doesn't get enough disparagement for my liking!

Littlespaces · 20/05/2019 14:19

This is a bog standard comprehensive.

tobee · 20/05/2019 14:23

Thanks @Littlespaces and @Peregrina .

Just trying to make sure my ds comes home from university to do his. His exams are on right now so it's touch and go. Did a proxy (remain) vote for dd on year abroad for the referendum but not been so organised this time. Blush

Littlespaces · 20/05/2019 14:23

And DF has agreed not to vote.

Result!

Littlespaces · 20/05/2019 14:24

Plus he would need me to drive him to polling station and funnily enough I'm on strike.

woodpigeons · 20/05/2019 14:26

All my DC are going to vote. They’re interested in politics and I keep forwarding them all the different and confusing online instructions about how to vote.
DGC aren’t old enough yet

tobee · 20/05/2019 14:28

Excellent Little. Trying to get my parents to vote not Labour. They are lifelong Labour voters (in their 80s) but pro remain. Trying to make sure they are convinced Labour are leave. Not sure it will make a difference though.

Littlespaces · 20/05/2019 14:29

One dd at university. All her friends have registered to vote.

Brexit Party leaflet being used as a dartboard.