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Brexit

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:31

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

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Peregrina · 19/05/2019 21:59

The BBC and others oversimplify what happens in the d'Hondt system when a party has got two seats or more already - it's not a case of simply dividing by No of seats plus 1.

The results from the South East at the last election illustrate the process better: www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/resource/static/files/elections2014/2014-south-east-region-results.pdf.pdf

Look at the UKIP votes - they are 751439, then 375719.50. Dividing this by 3 would give 125239.8, but the third UKIP candidate to win is shown as having 250479.67 votes. This makes sense when you take the 125239.8 from the 375719.5

By the same token my understanding of the SNP vote with 500,000 seats they would get the first seat.
Then their vote share would become 250,000 - this is still more than the others so they get the second seat. The other votes are still the same. The SNP vote then gets divided by 3 but their vote share doesn't go down to 83,333 - this number gets taken off their 250,000, giving them 166, 667, which is still ahead of the other three parties so they get the third seat. Their vote then gets divided by 4 and the 41,666 gets taken off the 166,667 so their vote share is now 125,001. At this stage they are below the two other parties on 150,000 so they both get their first seat, and their vote share gets halved. On the next pass the SNP would still have 125,001, Brexcrement and Labour, 75,000 and LibDems 110,000, so the LibDems still have less than the SNP so SNP would get the seat. I haven't done the arithmetic but if there was another seat going, the LibDems would get that because by this time all the others would have significantly less.

(Yes, I should get out more!)

Peregrina · 19/05/2019 22:01

Where are all the equivalent remain rallies?

Not being reported, that's where they are. Have you heard of the efforts the LibDems have been putting in to blitz the City of Oxford? No, thought not.

Mistigri · 19/05/2019 22:02

I think she’s just saying to vote for the biggest remain party, don’t you think that doesn’t sound particularly strategic?

It would be strategic if the LDs could get closer to the turquoise twats, as it would mean they got more than one seat in most constituencies. The wasted votes are the ones between those that are enough to get one seat, and the number required to get two seats, especially if those "wasted" votes prevent another remain party from getting a seat.

I think it's best to advise people who have a strong preference for one remain party to vote for that party, but to encourage people who are floaters to vote tactically.

yolofish · 19/05/2019 22:04

Thought it had all gone exceedingly quiet, and then found this thread. Greens leaflet tells me they are marvellous and to vote for them (SE) but DD1 and I will be going LD - probably worthless as Brexit/Tory central here, especially with another 52 poor sods pitching up on local beaches today.
PMK with a heavy heart.

Peregrina · 19/05/2019 22:09

Do not despair too much Yolofish - other parts of the S E constituency are strongly Remain. In the SE LibDems hoping to get two, and Greens 1, I think, but with a push LD might just get some votes over the line for the third seat.

Peregrina · 19/05/2019 22:15

Yes, I would endorse the tactic of getting Leaver friends to stick with theTories or UKIP - it takes a vote away from the Brexcrements and isn't very likely to give them more seats.

Halfeatentoast · 19/05/2019 22:19

Greens leaflet tells me they are marvellous and to vote for them
Urgh as they have on today's Remainiacs podcast. Marvelously Irritating more like.

QueenOfThorns · 19/05/2019 22:29

I think it's best to advise people who have a strong preference for one remain party to vote for that party, but to encourage people who are floaters to vote tactically.

Thank you, Mistigri, this helps. Clearly I just need someone to tell me what to do Grin

Icantreachthepretzels · 19/05/2019 22:36

But the LibDems already have a projected sea

Maybe its because I'm not very good at maths that it seems very simple and logical to me.

It isn't about the Liberal democrats. It's about giving that last seat to a pro-remain party, when pro remain voters will have ideological reasons not to vote for the only remain party which can feasibly win it.
Lib Dems have one seat - they can't get two. SNP have three seats- they could get four, but would need pro UK remainers to vote for them, which isn't necessarily going to happen (and might damage the Lib Dems chances of a seat). If you can't increase the SNP vote share, then the best thing to do is decrease the Labour vote share and hope the SNP can squeak it that way.

I think the theory is sound - if the numbers are there. Dangerous in practice - but in theory it's perfectly sound. The point isn't making the Lib Dems do better (other than the pro EU message it would send) the point is collapsing the Labour vote so hard that the SNP manage to squeak that fourth seat.
e.g - after divisions and all the rest, without tactical voting SNP would be on (massively simplified) 30 votes and Labour (not having got any seats yet) is on 32. so Labour get that last seat. HOWEVER - with tactical voting, you siphon off (massively simplified) 7 votes from Labour and stick it to the Lib Dems instead. Now going into the last seat SNP are on 30 (that doesn't change) BUT Labour are only on 25 - so SNP get the seat. How much Lib Dems are on, at this point, is neither here nor there - because it isn't about them.

It's a negative tactic that isn't actually about increasing one party's vote share - but is about actively decreasing another party's.

And the reason they're presumably telling people to vote Lib dem to help get the SNP over the line - instead of trying to increase the SNPs vote share - is because they are working under the assumption that anybody willing to vote for the SNP is already voting for them. They are at their hard ceiling. This is the strategy for the hard core better togetherers to get in a pro remain final MEP without actually having to compromise their ideals and vote for them.

That seems really logical and obvious to me. Dangerous - but logical. But I'm willing to accept that I've overlooked a massive complication. And I am sceptical that the numbers are there for it to actually work - but the theory in and of itself - divorced from reality - isn't hard to follow.

Peregrina · 19/05/2019 22:39

It's a negative tactic that isn't actually about increasing one party's vote share - but is about actively decreasing another party's.

Which is the same reason for voting Tory or UKIP in England - to take votes away from Brexit and deny them the extra seats.

Peregrina · 19/05/2019 22:44

Which is the same reason for voting Tory or UKIP in England - to take votes away from Brexit and deny them the extra seats.

Which was exactly the same reason why the Green candidate stood down locally in the last GE so that the anti-Tory vote would be less split. It didn't work exactly - the Greens had been taking about 2000 votes each GE since 2000, and maybe only half switched their votes to the LibDems and half going to Labour, but it was enough.

TokyoSushi · 19/05/2019 23:01

Argh, I'm a bit confused now! I was all set to vote LD in the NW but now it says Green...

WhatWouldScoobyDoo · 19/05/2019 23:08

pretzels that makes sense!!! Thank you!!!

HunkyDory69 · 19/05/2019 23:20

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ for breaking our Talk Guidelines.

Oakenbeach · 19/05/2019 23:29

Argh, I'm a bit confused now! I was all set to vote LD in the NW but now it says Green...

As I posted in the remainervoter thread, all they are doing is splitting the Remain vote and weakening and dividing the Remain voice. NF will be delighted! It’s well intentioned but entirely counter-productive and deeply flawed. Remainers need to coalesce round one party if they are to stand the best chance of success.

HazardGhost · 19/05/2019 23:56

I'm confused. More than usual.

I forgot the greens are even an option Blush - locally never a green MP option so I forget they exist as MEPs.
And I am a floater but I was 90% on lib dems but I based it off they did well in the local elections so I assumed they'd do well and get MEPs.

Remainvoter saying go Green for WM.

Might compromise and tell DP to vote for one and I'll vote the other?? DP also lib dem leaning and they bothered to send him a leaflet so I would be the one Greening... I know nothing about Greens accept femchat peeps are not fans

I'm gonna have to read.... and think....did I mention I AM TIRED

Icantreachthepretzels · 20/05/2019 00:02

I think people who have already sort of decided on the Lib Dems should stick with it - their vote is not secure in any region! They only got one MEP last time - they need all the votes they can get.

TokyoSushi · 20/05/2019 06:01

I think I'm going to stick with LD (NW)

bellinisurge · 20/05/2019 06:41

Sticking with LibDems. NW England. Nose held and all that. Nothing is secure/in the bag. We thought the referendum would marginally go Remain.

JQBased · 20/05/2019 06:45

I take it none of you follow whats happening economically and politically within the EU at this time? We are fucked? Well I have no idea what that would make the EU then, utterly fucked I guess.

bellinisurge · 20/05/2019 06:53

@JQBased , wanking on your own is hardly a better option to use your terminology Grin

Peregrina · 20/05/2019 07:04

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ep-elections-tactical-voting/?fbclid=IwAR2hDIBGRt3ui5TYhV4MnXSrFDoVMdQbB3BLRp4j-pdyeD3pYvOFa3l2DLE

I am not sure whether this advice helps or hinders. Typically the Germans do it differently and make the results more truly proportional.

woman19 · 20/05/2019 07:09

Tactical voting will fail in NE England or Wales because any such haphazard effort will not be sufficient to get that one party over the required threshold of 15% or more. It could be most successful across regions with district magnitude of 5-7, if it helps getting at least one party over the threshold of 10-12%. However, in London, NW England or SE England (with eight or more seats), it could actually reduce the overall number of seats the three pro-Remain parties could win between them. If, for example, tactical voting pushes one pro-Remain party close to 15% but reduces the two others to 5 or 6%, the bigger party will not have enough to win multiple seats (look again at Figure 1 and the threshold for winning more than one seat) while the others could both fail to win a single seat. That could reduce the pro-Remain parties to a single seat where three could have been won

Where the effective threshold is well below 10% (London, SE England, NW England), the best outcome for pro-Remain parties would actually be for the vote to be as evenly split between them as possible

From Peregrina's article.

Confused
NoWordForFluffy · 20/05/2019 07:12

I think it just makes it harder to work out what's best to do in some regions. If you need to split votes evenly, as we do, it would make sense for couples to vote for a remain party each, thereby evenly distributing the vote. But unless enough people do this it's still probably a fruitless exercise! It's so hard!

Peregrina · 20/05/2019 07:14

More BBC bias

Brexit regret in the Centre of England? says their headline. Read the piece and it's virtually all voting for Farage. How is that changing their minds? Deserting the Tories, would be a better headline.