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Brexit

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:31

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
26
Mistigri · 19/05/2019 20:27

It doesn't make sense

Why? The d'Hondt system is complex, so moving votes around can give rise to quite different outcomes.

Rufusthebewilderedreindeer · 19/05/2019 20:29

Ive just received the reman voter email

Happy to cut and paste chunks of it

Stilltalkstotrees · 19/05/2019 20:30

I don’t rate the remainvoter recommendations at all. They should be telling you who not to vote for and suggesting where those votes should go. Makes no sense - if all Remainy votes go to Green, the LD vote collapses.

Rufusthebewilderedreindeer · 19/05/2019 20:30

Oops sorry

Thatll teach me not to refresh Grin

prettybird · 19/05/2019 20:30

I understand the d'Hondt system: but swapping votes from Labour or Green to LibDem in order to give the SNP an extra seat doesn't make sense.

It would if they were suggesting that the LibDems were close to their 2nd seat and to help them get that.

Mistigri · 19/05/2019 20:32

It is confusing. I was going to go LD.
But in my area I’ve been advised to vote Green as LD are fairly certain to get a seat anyway. They didn’t last time. I wonder what they’re basing it on? Have they detected a LD surge?

Presumably based on polling + local election results.

The thing about d'Hondt is that once a party reaches the theshold required to get a seat, then the votes above that threshold are essentially wasted (unless they get enough for a second seat - in most constituencies this requires them to get more than twice as many votes as the third or fourth placed parties).

So if the LDs are comfortable for one seat, but unlikely to get two, then the tactical thing to do is to vote the greens over the threshold.

But I do think this advice is best reserved for floating voters. If you are an LD supporter - rather than a pissed off Labour or Tory voter - then vote LD.

Ellie56 · 19/05/2019 20:32

But there seems to be a bit of a contradiction in telling everyone that the LDs have one safe seat & don't need any more, so vote Green, because if more than a certain number of people heed their advice surely the LD seat won't be safe any more? Confused

Yes I'm a bit confused by this. LoonvanBoon

Unless with all the people who have signed up to their website, they can see how many votes there are likely to be for Lib Dem and are redirecting some of us to vote Green so the LD votes are not wasted?

woodpigeons · 19/05/2019 20:35

www.remainunited.org/be-tactical/

My daughter just sent me this link to the Gina Miller site which says everyone in England should vote LD and in Scotland SNP but they’ll be redoing it on 21st.

GeistohneGrenzen · 19/05/2019 20:35

prettybird re the Scotland vote the Remainvoter email quoted on p11 also says...
"Scotland is interesting! Recent polling shows SNP confidently gaining 3 seats with undecided Labour voters blocking a 4th. RemainVoter.com modelling shows LDs have the momentum to win a seat while helping the SNP win the 4th seat. So smart voting can win a seat from a pro-Brexit party while capitalising on Labour's lack of commitment to their majority Remain membership."

...but I don't understand it either. That's a chess move too smart for me Grin

RedToothBrush · 19/05/2019 20:40

D'hondt is easy

Highest number of votes. Then if you win a seat you divide the original number of votes by the 2. And you then use than number and the next seat is won by the highest number in round 2.

If you win a second seat, you divide by 3 and so on.

It's why having 30% of the vote is quite crucial in some of the bigger constituencies.

You can be pretty sure with 30% of the vote of winning 2 seats and then having a good shot of the third with a total of 10% of the vote for your attempt at the third seat.

In many areas you have the Cons and Greens in particular hanging around the 10% mark.

So it makes small differences on the last seats very tight.

Realistically speaking you want to keep the Brexit Party below 30% for this reason.

It's all about the last seats in the bigger constituencies.

The SE is the largest so the last seats can we won with the smallest percentages (I think it's about the 7 - 8% Mark), then it's London and the NW. And then I think it's the west Midlands.

OP posts:
youkiddingme · 19/05/2019 20:42

The remain tactical voting thing isn't actually owned by the greens is it?
There does seem a danger it could pull votes away from LD to greens and make things worse not better in a few areas.

prettybird · 19/05/2019 20:44

I would have understood it if they'd said that the LibDems weren't projected to get a seat unless there were tactical voting Confused

Can't copy the picture, but here is the text:

Forecasted results by party

without tactical voting

3 SNP
1 Brexit Party
1 Labour
1 Liberal Democrats

Forecasted results by party

with tactical voting

4 SNP
1 Brexit Party
1 Liberal Democrats

I know it's complex (I've had multiple presentations on it and read lots of worked examples), but unless there is a really weird "Last Man Standing" thing going on with the Non-Tactical vote that lets the LibDem in rather than the 4th SNP seat, I just don't get it.

I know last time the Purple Party got in with less than the threshold under "Last Man Standing" as the SNP didn't have quite enough for their 3rd seat.

Icantreachthepretzels · 19/05/2019 20:47

Why doesn't that make sense prettybird? I think the point is that Labour would currently get SNPs 4th seat - but siphoning the labour vote away to Lib Dem gives the SNP a big enough majority over labour to get that 4th seat.

I assume their thinking is that remainers who aren't SNP voters anyway don't want to give their vote to an indy party - so Lib Dem is the compromise.

QueenOfThorns · 19/05/2019 20:52

The thing about d'Hondt is that once a party reaches the theshold required to get a seat, then the votes above that threshold are essentially wasted

This is what makes me think that Remain Voter’s recommendations make more sense than Gina Millers. I think she’s just saying to vote for the biggest remain party, don’t you think that doesn’t sound particularly strategic?

RedToothBrush · 19/05/2019 20:56

It depends on what the threshold for the last few seats is likely to be. And which parties are closest to that threshold/double that threshold/tripe that threshold or even quadruple that threshold.

That's the number that needs to be worked out, plus who is likely closest to it - and that's who you vote for.

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Icantreachthepretzels · 19/05/2019 20:56

don’t you think that doesn’t sound particularly strategic?

Surely it's no less strategic than all brexiteers voting for Farage?

jasjas1973 · 19/05/2019 21:05

I think she’s just saying to vote for the biggest remain party, don’t you think that doesn’t sound particularly strategic?

The numbers of MEPs is somewhat irrelevant, this election result will be portrayed as e.g. BXP got 32% LD 20% Greens 15% CUK 10%

Therefore, BXP "won" and we should now all get behind brexit, as thats the Will of the People, just as 17m out of 46m is the Will of the People....

CUK would do a whole lot better by calling themselves the Remain party or better still, stand down in these elections

prettybird · 19/05/2019 21:09

But the LibDems already have a projected seat Confused

So if the SNP get 500,000 votes, Labour 150,000, the Turquoise Party 150,000 and the LibDems 110,000 votes (say), swapping 40,000 votes from Labour to the LibDems won't give the SNP another seat Confused - it would just make Labour the "last man standing seat" rather than the LibDems Confused ...but I might be getting my mental maths mixed up as I'm simultaneously trying to get ready for an overnight bus trip to London Blush

QueenOfThorns · 19/05/2019 21:11

Surely it's no less strategic than all brexiteers voting for Farage?

The leave vote isn’t as split as the remain vote, though is it? So there’s less need to be strategic.

RTB, it sounds as though Remain Voter has tried to work out the closest party to the threshold in each region. That’s the whole point, and presumably the reason it has taken so long.

It’s incredibly frustrating that not only is the remain vote so hopelessly split (thanks a billion, CHUKs), but the tactical recommendations are just as bad. Don’t these people know that our hair is on fire and this is no time to be getting it so badly wrong? Sad

prettybird · 19/05/2019 21:16

Ds tells me that there's been a survey out that suggests Scotland would be 3 SNP, 1 Green, 1 Labour and 1 Brexit. So it just shows how complicated it is, trying to 2nd guess d'Hondt Confused

RedToothBrush · 19/05/2019 21:19

Exactly pretty.

I'm pretty skeptical of tactical voting with dhondt because it could just backfire.

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Ellie56 · 19/05/2019 21:31

So now I don't know whether to vote LD or Green.I'm not bothered either way (although voting for Green would be a first for me) just as long as it stops one of the Brexshit brigade getting in.

And why do we keep hearing about Nigel Twat Farage rallying the Brexshit troops everywhere? Where are all the equivalent remain rallies? Confused

borntobequiet · 19/05/2019 21:32

Probably the best tactic is to persuade all your Leaver friends to stick with UKIP or Conservatives.

AutumnCrow · 19/05/2019 21:38

I honestly think the best tactic is to vote Lib Dem.

And persuade Leavers to stay at home.

Ellie56 · 19/05/2019 21:43

And persuade Leavers to stay at home. Or hide their postal vote. Grin

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