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Brexit

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:31

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

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26
Iambuffy · 19/05/2019 19:06

Oh. Green.

Shit.

Peregrina · 19/05/2019 19:06

How have Remainvoter done their analysis? The opinion I am hearing from the LDs is from people actively canvassing. Of course, we are only a small part of the South East, but I imagine that the canvassers here talk to other LD canvassers in other parts of the South East.

I think if you are not sure, vote with your gut instinct. It will still be a Remain vote.

LoonvanBoon · 19/05/2019 19:06

Says Green for Yorks & Humber too. But I'm still going to vote LD.

The no 1 Green candidate, Magid Magid, seems great; & I hope he gets a seat. But there seems to be a bit of a contradiction in telling everyone that the LDs have one safe seat & don't need any more, so vote Green, because if more than a certain number of people heed their advice surely the LD seat won't be safe any more? Confused

I get the idea in principle. In our region 1 seat usually = about 10% vote share, poss slightly higher or lower. If LD get the sort of % predicted nationally - somewhere in 15-17% region - then that is going to be quite a few wasted votes as it's a good 50% more than you need for one seat but not enough for two.

But I think the Greens will be more popular this time too, there will probably still be a good few Labour voters in our area, & I'm just not as convinced that we can totally take the LD seat for granted.

I fear the the turquoise lot are going to do hideously well round here. UKIP scraped 3 seats in 2014 (they got c 31% vote share, Lab got over 29% but got 2 seats). If Brexit party pick up Tory votes too (they got 1 seat) that could be up to 40% vote share? I desperately hope I'm wrong on this & would be relieved if the results were just as bad as 2014. Yorks & Humber had the shame of sending a BNP MEP in 2009 so we don't have a great record with Euro elections. Sad

Motheroffourdragons · 19/05/2019 19:12

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

jasjas1973 · 19/05/2019 19:13

Green for me, disappointed with CUK, silly name and still same old politics, maybe they should have stayed in their respective parties and fought for change from within?
Chukka was awful on the Marr show...just another 2 faced politician, just like Corbyn who failed to answer a single question with a straight answer.

LibDems? still can't get over they supported the Cons + trebling of Uni fees, they really need a new leader.

So i'm glad the advice is Green for the SouthWest, big fan of Caroline Lucas.

NigellasGuest · 19/05/2019 19:16

Oh I dont know now!

Peregrina · 19/05/2019 19:17

LibDems will be getting a new Leader soon.

woodpigeons · 19/05/2019 19:19

So did I Fluffy.

youkiddingme · 19/05/2019 19:19

I've been told to vote green. But it assumes the Lib Dems will win a seat anyway - but what if all the people who were assumed to be going to vote Lib Dem actually change to green because of their suggestion? Am I over-thinking this? Not sure which way I'm actually going to go.

Anyone else feel like they moved into Fawlty towers on Apr 1st and it's been groundhog day ever since?

LoonvanBoon · 19/05/2019 19:22

CUK isn't predicted as being anywhere close to gaining a single seat in any constituency, are they? Can't see how they're a good bet.

Wish I hadn't filled in their poll. I'm not finding this v helpful. Are they basing their predictions on their own polling? Because if so they're deciding that a party has a seat in the bag based on what people signed up to their website have said, & then they're telling every single one of those same people to vote for a single different party. Or is that not how it works?

tobee · 19/05/2019 19:22

I got my email from Remain Voter too Smile But you lot spoilt the surprise by posting a spoiler. SadGrin

LoonvanBoon · 19/05/2019 19:23

x -posted youkiddingme - exactly my concern.

Motheroffourdragons · 19/05/2019 19:26

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

GeistohneGrenzen · 19/05/2019 19:34

Nigella in an email from Remain Voter to me today - says vote Green in East as LD practically assured of a seat in the region and Greens have good chance of getting one too. I sent my postal vote for Green a few days ago as my thinking was along those lines anyway. Tried to copy relevant bit from email but it didn't want me too. Shall try again!

HesterThrale · 19/05/2019 19:42

It is confusing. I was going to go LD.
But in my area I’ve been advised to vote Green as LD are fairly certain to get a seat anyway. They didn’t last time. I wonder what they’re basing it on? Have they detected a LD surge?

www.remainvoter.com/

borntobequiet · 19/05/2019 19:44

I think only follow the advice from the Remain websites if you are genuinely not sure how to vote. I’m sure now that I will vote LD (as I have done previously) so will not be following advice to vote otherwise.

BettyFilous · 19/05/2019 19:52

I was going with LD or Change UK. I’ve just read all of the tolerable parties’ campaign leaflets for my region. The Lib Dem one is the only one that had a proper EU-focussed vision and objectives. The Greens and the nationalist party focussed on policies that would need to be developed and legislated at a national level, i.e. not EU parliament appropriate. Change UK’s was painfully short on any kind of detail. The Labour one was relentlessly negative, hammering on about how chaotic and crap the Tories were, blah, blah, blah. 🙄 People in glass houses, eh?

TLDR version: Lib Dems look to be the only viable/sane remain option here.

prettybird · 19/05/2019 19:59

Remainvoter.com is not very inclusive Hmm - I can't access their website from my admittedly very old iPhone (a 4, which can only go up iOS 7) as I'm apparently using an outdated browser Hmm

NigellasGuest · 19/05/2019 20:03

Grenzen thanks for the head up!

Is this it then, or could it change again if they get more polls in?

LonelyTiredandLow · 19/05/2019 20:07

Had an email from Remain Voter telling me to vote Change because LD seats are secure Hmm which I don't know how they factor in if remainers are usually the ones who do vote in EU elections?

Not going to have time to do lots of links for productivity, but here's a link to a good summary article wellbeing and productivity which is another reason to be scared of loosing Human and Workers Rights.

prettybird · 19/05/2019 20:13

Did finally get some election literature through yesterday (unfortunately dh threw it out today because, as he pointed out, we know what we're going to vote Grin, so apologies for the rips across the middle Blush)

Tell me which one is obsessed with Independence, which one complains about things that are UK Government responsibility and which one deals with the issues of Brexit and the EU ? ConfusedHmm

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise
Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise
GeistohneGrenzen · 19/05/2019 20:20

Nigella I really have no idea!

Have a look at previous page (11) where woodpigeons has copied the Remainvoter email in full - it sets out the reasons, but as people have said, this might influence others away from their original choice... If I was really undecided I'd go with my gut instinct. Just make sure to get a remain vote in Grin

prettybird · 19/05/2019 20:23

Just gone on to the laptop to look at the Remainvoter recommendation. It doesn't make sense Confused

It's recommending LibDem because without tactical voting, the SNP will win 3 seats, the Turquoise Big Arrow Party will win one, Labour another and the LibDems the 6th. It's saying with tactical smart voting, by voting LibDem the SNP will be able to win their 4th seat and Labour would lose their's, leaving it as 5 to 1, Remain to Leave. Confused

Peregrina · 19/05/2019 20:24

No seats are secure until the crosses are in the boxes. Even Farage's votes aren't secure yet.

taeglas · 19/05/2019 20:25

I think only follow the advice from the Remain websites if you are genuinely not sure how to vote.
I agree, in London here and can't follow the advice to vote for Change UK, as I feel I would be wasting my vote. They are just not stong enough in all polls for me to risk voting for them.

I lke this site as it highlights what the Eu does for all of us.
what-europe-does-for-me.eu/en/portal
I did not know that the EU has provide the largest grant in the world for Autism.
Of course the EU is far from perfect but it seems that so many people have been fed information on the negatives of being an EU member and none of the positives.