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Brexit

Westminstenders: Lets get on with...

939 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2019 09:48

Admitting the mandate for leaving has expired.

The newspapers today are full of Talk of both Corbyn and May panicking that Brexit is destroying their parties, so after nearly 3 years of party politics they have decided that actually they can agree on something in the next week or so. Not because it's in the national interest but because they don't fancy mutual self assured destruction.

If they do manage to cobble something together then it with be rushed and shite.

If they don't they will be punished at the Euro elections by a Remain / Leave pincer action.

They can spin it all they like from their local election disaster that it was people wanting to get on with Brexit. It certainly does not change the reality that those people who were most likely to vote are fed up with the pair of them. And that there is a strong indication that the most motivated voters are remain leaning. Perhaps its true that leavers stayed home in protest. If they did, what will they do if the Brexit Party stand candidates at a general election? Maybe they will vote, but you can't argue that they view voting itself as an important act. Spoilt ballots were up, but not that up. If the pair do manage a deal, then we have Brexited which might satisfy some. The trouble is the underlying issues are not to do with the European Union. And even if we leave with a deal that does not resolve our future trading relationship. The poison that is Brexit won't end. And the voters will realise that soon enough. Leaving even with a deal will harm the economy, and that's only going to fuel discontent.

It's therefore hard to see where either party go from here. Not when they are effectively split internally. The poison is here to stay.

Spinning it as 'it shows the public want us to get on with Brexit' isn't going to help their cause with voters who still think leaving is a national disaster. Those voters will still think its a national disaster and will be even more pissed at being ignored and dismissed once again.

Where is the incentive to return to voting Labour or Conservative?

The Euro Elections, if they go ahead, will therefore be about one thing and one thing only: turnout. Even if the Brexit Party do relatively well, it will be about how many turnout in comparison to the locals and in comparison to the last EU elections. Whilst they might not admit the reality of things, ultimately all Labour and Conservatives really care about is securing the vote of people who will vote because voting intention doesn't win them seats if people don't turnout.

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ElenadeClermont · 10/05/2019 19:29

Any suggestions for voting in the North East?
I am leaning towards Lib dem, because I imagine they will do better here than CHUK, and love Bollocks to Brexit.

TalkinPaece · 10/05/2019 19:33

I was talking to a pretty senior Libdem yesterday (not currently elected to much, but background influential)
it was clear to me that she did not dare to hope that they would make a huge breakthrough week after next

I have two kids at Uni - FFS, the Libdems moderated the Tories
I have no problems with Student loans in principle
STOP whacking the Libdems for the corner they were backed into.

Gender - both of our kids are woke, DH and I are both feminists
again
choose your battles

I will do a bit of data analysis but I am pretty sure where my vote is going

Jezza has indeed united the country - but not how he thinks Smile

Ellie56 · 10/05/2019 19:35

Any suggestions on how to vote in the East Midlands?

(Obviously not Tories Labour UKIP or the Turquoise Party Grin )

rosie39forever · 10/05/2019 19:52

I'm in the east mids and am thinking Lib Dem's could potentially take a seat from labour but I'm afraid Nigel fromage's lot are going to do well, I think green or independent could be a wasted vote so it's got to be Lib Dem for me.

borntobequiet · 10/05/2019 19:54

Having nailed my colours to the mast I urge all to vote Lib Dem.

Peregrina · 10/05/2019 19:59

I think the LibDems might have scored with Bollocks to Brexit.

Icantreachthepretzels · 10/05/2019 20:02

So two Yorkshire LD votes in our house.
We must be at least 7 by now

Considering how low election turnout generally is - we, the magnificent 7, could make all the difference.

Icantreachthepretzels · 10/05/2019 20:03

I hate 'bollocks to brexit' - it is the worst thing about the marches. But I'll not not vote for them over it.

LoonvanBoon · 10/05/2019 20:11

The Wiki pages on each European Parliament constituency are useful as they give all the results since 1999.

The North East looks like a difficult one as there are only 3 seats IIRC and each party seems to need to get a larger % of vote per seat than in Yorks & Humber. Just checked & in 2014 the Conservatives didn't get a single seat despite getting over 17% of the vote, whereas it's usually about 10% of the vote per seat round here.

In 2004 & 2009 in the NE there was one MEP each for Labour, Tory & LDs, but in 2014 Labour got 2 MEPs with 36% of the vote & UKIP 1 with 29%.

I'm guessing the Tories won't get a seat this time & that Brexit party could easily get a couple if they get votes from Labour as well as Tory. LDs probably stand a better chance than other Remain parties. Labour probably stands the best chance of stopping Brexit party from cleaning up.

TalkinPaece · 10/05/2019 20:15

pretzels
I admit I swear a lot
but
"bollocks to Brexit" is a fab phrase
shouting it at the March March was wonderful
and I think its a stroke of genius by Vince
the meejah pearl clutchers will hate it
the young will get it

woodpigeons · 10/05/2019 20:27

I’m with you born. LDs it is.

woodpigeons · 10/05/2019 20:28

Forgot to say I’m East Midlands.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/05/2019 20:41

Ian Dunt - this is what has defined Brexit for the last three years: a furiously churning status quo in which nothing actually changes

www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/05/10/week-in-review-stasis-is-underpriced

Her tactics are similarly unchanged.
They are to say anything and do nothing.

Whatever is required to survive the day, she will say it.
But that has no particular bearing on her future behaviour.

It's so simple and obvious, but it has genuinely flummoxed people, because we still contain within us the last vestigial traces of our liberal naivety.
We simply don't think prime ministers lie directly to us.
This one does, relentlessly.

In a complex and fraught debate, these are the two things you can rely on:
That things hardly ever change and that the prime minister will say anything to stay in power and then go back on it later.
The second makes the first harder to perceive.
It creates moments where we assume news has happened, only to later discover it has not.

ElenadeClermont · 10/05/2019 20:47

@LoonvanBoon Thank you.
We have just discussed it with DH.

BackInTime · 10/05/2019 20:52

LD letter and leaflet addressed to me personally Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 10/05/2019 21:02

Robert Peston on why there won't be a single Remain candidate in Peterborough:

Some prominant Labour PV supporters wrecked it, because they feared loss of Labour support Angry

This is why some Remainers are put off the whole PV idea: because some of the leaders are twisty politicians who spend more time plotting this kind of shit than on defeating No Deal

https://mobile.twitter.com/Peston/status/1126537699203137537

Femi Oluwole, of our Our Future Our Choice, or @OFOCBrexit, the influential young campaigner for a people's vote,
came within a whisker of being the single pro-referendum candidate in the Peterborough by-election.
He was a candidate until just two hours before the official deadline for registering
....
Change UK have issue a release in which they allege that "senior figures campaigning for a People's Vote" who support Labour had
"made clear they would strenuously disrupt the campaign and obstruct an independent candidate".

Change UK did not name @Femi_Sorry but I subsequently learned he was that "independent" candidate.

The People's Vote insisted "a potential candidate for the Peterborough by-election decided not to stand for their own reasons".

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2019 21:03

Got to be honest, that in the NE because of the way the DHondt system works and how the region only has three seats, it'd be a no brainer vote for Labour for me. I've had a good look at the numbers and trends - there isn't a better way to vote.

It's the best way to limit the number of seats the Brexit Party can win, and even if there was a single remain ticket the combined polling of green, ld and change would only just get enough votes for one seat. And that's a push.

It's just not realistic nor viable for anyone but Lab and the Brexit Party to win the seats there, and Labour need the votes to ensure its them, not the Brexit Party who get two seats out of the three.

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SwedishEdith · 10/05/2019 21:26

HIGNFY pulled tonight because Heidi Allen on it. And yet Farage spewing crap on Question Times is ok. Nothing to see here.

NoWordForFluffy · 10/05/2019 21:27

What?! Is that down to election rules in some way?

SwedishEdith · 10/05/2019 21:33

God knows what the logic is. This is their tweet:

Have I Got News For You
‏*@haveigotnews*

Sorry everyone. The BBC have pulled tonight’s edition of #HIGNFY - no, we didn’t book Danny Baker. We booked Heidi Allen, a member of a party no-one knows the name of (not even the people in it), because the Euro elections, which nobody wants, may or may not be happening.
Sorry.

And lots do want Euro elections. Bizarre all round.

TalkinPaece · 10/05/2019 21:37

I do not get the BBC News editorial policy
who are they trying to suck up to ?

My kids do not like HIGNFY because they say its too "old"
but Farage on QT turns them off even mores (especially after the episode in York where DD knew many of the audience and utterly saw through their games)

woman19 · 10/05/2019 21:44

Bizarre all round
Putinesque

prettybird · 10/05/2019 21:47

Let me just check: how many times has Farage been a panellist on QT? Hmm And how many times has he been on the BBC in recent months? Hmm And how many times recently in his capacity as leader of the Big Turquoise Right Pointing Arrow Party? Hmm

And how many times has Heidi Allan been a guest on BBC programmes? Hmm

ConfusedConfused

And people wonder why the BBC is seen as having a pre-Brexit bias Confused It might not be there in its documentaries (cf the Storyville: Behind Closed Doors programmes), but it is there in its current affairs programming and in its editorial decisions Angry

Icantreachthepretzels · 10/05/2019 21:52

Talk gotta disagree Smile it's just so beyond not clever. And as a word - it's such a middle class swear word! It sounds like the slogan of the liberal elite thinking they're being risqué and giggling up their sleeves and their naughtiness. I hate it.

TalkinPaece · 10/05/2019 22:05

Farage is allowed but Heidi isn't Hmm
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48235812