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Brexit

Westminstenders: Lets get on with...

939 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2019 09:48

Admitting the mandate for leaving has expired.

The newspapers today are full of Talk of both Corbyn and May panicking that Brexit is destroying their parties, so after nearly 3 years of party politics they have decided that actually they can agree on something in the next week or so. Not because it's in the national interest but because they don't fancy mutual self assured destruction.

If they do manage to cobble something together then it with be rushed and shite.

If they don't they will be punished at the Euro elections by a Remain / Leave pincer action.

They can spin it all they like from their local election disaster that it was people wanting to get on with Brexit. It certainly does not change the reality that those people who were most likely to vote are fed up with the pair of them. And that there is a strong indication that the most motivated voters are remain leaning. Perhaps its true that leavers stayed home in protest. If they did, what will they do if the Brexit Party stand candidates at a general election? Maybe they will vote, but you can't argue that they view voting itself as an important act. Spoilt ballots were up, but not that up. If the pair do manage a deal, then we have Brexited which might satisfy some. The trouble is the underlying issues are not to do with the European Union. And even if we leave with a deal that does not resolve our future trading relationship. The poison that is Brexit won't end. And the voters will realise that soon enough. Leaving even with a deal will harm the economy, and that's only going to fuel discontent.

It's therefore hard to see where either party go from here. Not when they are effectively split internally. The poison is here to stay.

Spinning it as 'it shows the public want us to get on with Brexit' isn't going to help their cause with voters who still think leaving is a national disaster. Those voters will still think its a national disaster and will be even more pissed at being ignored and dismissed once again.

Where is the incentive to return to voting Labour or Conservative?

The Euro Elections, if they go ahead, will therefore be about one thing and one thing only: turnout. Even if the Brexit Party do relatively well, it will be about how many turnout in comparison to the locals and in comparison to the last EU elections. Whilst they might not admit the reality of things, ultimately all Labour and Conservatives really care about is securing the vote of people who will vote because voting intention doesn't win them seats if people don't turnout.

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RedToothBrush · 05/05/2019 09:51

PS Matt Hancock's comments yesterday about the public wanting the centre ground were VERY interesting in the context of who did turnout on Thursday.

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bellinisurge · 05/05/2019 09:52

I suppose there is only so long you can keep your head in the sand.
Thanks @RedToothBrush

woman19 · 05/05/2019 09:53

public wanting the centre ground
Rory Stewart is extraordinary on Sophie Ridge just now. Although he's still arguing for a 'just get on with it', he's so conciliatory. Scared by St Albans result. Scared by loss of middle ground tories and youth. Argues against competing with extremists to keep tories in power.
It's weird to hear.
Is this the Spanish Election effect?

Flowers thanks red

Motheroffourdragons · 05/05/2019 09:56

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2019 09:58

Peter Foster@pmdfoster
Where @ShippersUnbound reveals the Tory-Labour #brexit deal...which doesn’t make that much sense...

Apparently it’s a ‘customs arrangement til 2022 election...and then may the best team win on fight for hard/soft Brexit.

But.../1

If this gets the Withdrawal Agreement over the line, Customs is a pretty moot question until 2022 because we’re in a standstill transition arrangement...it could in theory end earlier But..../2

Westminstenders: Lets get on with...
Westminstenders: Lets get on with...
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RedToothBrush · 05/05/2019 10:00

Foster points out that a deal this week only means that the 2022 election is likely to be fought on Hard Brexit / Soft Brexit ticket.

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borntobequiet · 05/05/2019 10:05

PMK thanks Red

Iambuffy · 05/05/2019 10:09

Pmk

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2019 10:09

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/voters-don-t-want-extremes-they-want-the-centre-cn9lbhqnz
Matt Hancock interview: ‘Voters want the centre, not the extremes’
The Tories are finished if they veer right and just become a Brexit party, the health secretary says

‘We need to deliver Brexit and then turn the page and we need to deliver from the centre ground,” says Matt Hancock. The 40-year-old health secretary could be the new-generation Conservative leadership candidate. He is wearing jeans, a T-shirt and trainers when we meet the morning after the local elections at a café packed with mothers and babies in Kensal Rise, northwest London, where he orders us all a latte and fried banana bread and leans back to discuss the results.

The only way to interpret the results for the Conservative Party, he says, is that the voters want it to avoid veering to the right.

Still parroting the deliver Brexit stuff, but also acknowledging the problem with the hard right and turnout.

Is it possible for the Conservatives to 'deliver Brexit' as their hard core want, without going hard right?

The answer to this is probably 'no'.

Poison.

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TheABC · 05/05/2019 10:09

Even if they cobble together a deal, I seriously doubt they will be able to get it through Parliament. Tories won't vote for a customs union. Labour MPs won't vote for anything less (and probably want the pesky referendum tacked on). It does not matter how you spin it: if the numbers are not there,it can't be done.

Right now, it looks like one of three options:

  • No Deal
  • GE
  • Revoke

I would love to add the PV in as a fourth, but realistically I don't think we have the time left to run and take action on it, even if it did deliver a clear result.

NoIamNotOkHun · 05/05/2019 10:11

@woman19 - is Rory the Tory an ok sort? He comes across well but I don't know who to trust anymore.

PMK - I've had an extended Brexit break but can't keep my head in the sand anymore. Sadly.

BercowsSilkTie · 05/05/2019 10:11

Thanks Red.

TheABC · 05/05/2019 10:13

So why are the leaders even bothering with negotiations? I am guessing:

  • TM expects it to fail, then blames the lack of progress on GC. She then tried to force the WA through again as "only option left"
  • GC is keen to avoid accusations of holding up Brexit. He wants the Tory party to fall apart before his own will, so he can have a stab at winning the next GE.

I don't think either of them will get what they want.

NoWordForFluffy · 05/05/2019 10:16

PMK, thanks Red.

They're still putting party before country in all of this. It's sickening. I couldn't be much more pissed off about the whole shenanigans if I tried.

woodpigeons · 05/05/2019 10:17

Babooshka I’m sure you know this but just in case you don’t.
Social services have to give you a carer’s assessment if you ask for one. If they think you need support you don’t have to take what they are offering as there is an option for you to receive money and sort out what you need and pay for it. Obviously they have input into what you can do with it.
We got embroiled with this a few years ago when my carer, DH, had an injury. The situation was complicated by the fact we/he are also caring for a DGC with significant needs.
They were quite helpful, and we did get some help with DGC, although most support they could offer would be more long term than we needed it for.

woman19 · 05/05/2019 10:23

is Rory the Tory an ok sort
He seems a decent sort. I am watching for integrity closely, in any party.

Tories have looked over the abyss with the LE and the mainstream conservative party in Spain getting obliterated for courting the extreme right.

Labour doesn't seem to have received that message, yet..........

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2019 10:26

Rory The Tory generally has the right intentions at heart I believe. The trouble is he thinks the Tories are the way to solve those problems. And is ridiculously loyal to leadership (he's ex army which explains a lot).

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woman19 · 05/05/2019 10:28

café packed with mothers and babies in Kensal Rise, northwest London, where he orders us all a latte and fried banana bread and leans back to discuss the results
John Smith had a 'prawn cocktail' offensive to woo business vote to labour. Is this the 'fried banana bread' fightback? Grin

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2019 10:30

Paul Waugh@paulwaugh
.@RoryStewartUK tells us on Pienaar's Politics that a split in the Tory party is a price worth paying to get Con-Lab Brexit deal over the line. "Yes there will be short term pain." @JPonpolitics @AyoCaesar

Marcus Fysh MP @ MarcusFysh
Rory mate, seek help.

Marcus of course is a hard right Tory in Somerset. That county that went yellow in a big way at the local elections.

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woman19 · 05/05/2019 10:31

From what I'm learning about the Greens, and young Rory the Tory ( who lives in the Lakes and wrote a book about a 30 day solo walk in Afghanistan, and tutored William and Harry) Greens would be his natural home. He's quite anomolous in current tory party. And is open about wanting to stand for leadershipof it!

Mistigri · 05/05/2019 10:36

Rory's a Tory loyalist more than anything, although it's very hard to take him seriously with his A-level politics student look.

Someone talk me through the idea that the LE results are a sign that the middle ground wants the U.K. to get on with it.

It strikes me that voters who turn out for LEs are generally (a) the politically engaged (b) the retired and (c) the educated middle classes.

Group (a) makes it possible for smaller parties to do well on all sides of the political spectrum, as long as they are either well organised locally or they can piggy back on a "hot button" issue. Brexit has functioned in the past as hot button issue to turn out the right; this time it disproportionately benefited the centre, as hard leavers stayed at home or spoilt their ballots to punish the Tories, and hard remainers turned out for the LDs to punish the Tories and Labour.

Many of group (b) who voted leave and normally vote Tory or Labour will have stayed at home waiting for Nigel. OTOH the over 60 PV crowd (the people who crammed into coaches in October and March) clearly showed up for the LDs in significant numbers. Hence the results in places like North Somerset and Chelmsford.

I think group (c) probably voted more LD than in the past too. These are the sort of voters who mainly vote Labour in urban areas and Tory in stockbroker belts.

Significantly NONE of these groups wants the govt to "just get on with it". They either want no deal or no Brexit. think the only remaining just-get-on-with-it voters who can still stomach a customs union are the rump of Tory and labour voters - who will vote for their parties no matter what. What's the point of policies that appeal to the people whose votes you already have, but not those whose votes you actually need?

NoWordForFluffy · 05/05/2019 11:05

I reported that offensive tweet, woman. It's sickening how normalised this type of shit has become here. I'm half-sure it's misogynistic keyboard warrior shit, but it's still dangerous if it eggs some other nutcase on. Angry

Littlespaces · 05/05/2019 11:11

I read this wrong last night. I thought, "I've not heard of the Repeat party." Doh!

This would be a great name for the Tory Party atm!

1tisILeClerc · 05/05/2019 11:13

Having had a quick look at the UK papers this morning, if I were wanting to go somewhere for a summer holiday I would not chose the UK.
The level of general nastiness that has arisen noticeably in the last 3 or 4 years is horrible.
Of course I realise that the whole of the UK is not like that but really those 'in power' need to get a grip.