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Brexit

Westminstenders: Lets get on with...

939 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2019 09:48

Admitting the mandate for leaving has expired.

The newspapers today are full of Talk of both Corbyn and May panicking that Brexit is destroying their parties, so after nearly 3 years of party politics they have decided that actually they can agree on something in the next week or so. Not because it's in the national interest but because they don't fancy mutual self assured destruction.

If they do manage to cobble something together then it with be rushed and shite.

If they don't they will be punished at the Euro elections by a Remain / Leave pincer action.

They can spin it all they like from their local election disaster that it was people wanting to get on with Brexit. It certainly does not change the reality that those people who were most likely to vote are fed up with the pair of them. And that there is a strong indication that the most motivated voters are remain leaning. Perhaps its true that leavers stayed home in protest. If they did, what will they do if the Brexit Party stand candidates at a general election? Maybe they will vote, but you can't argue that they view voting itself as an important act. Spoilt ballots were up, but not that up. If the pair do manage a deal, then we have Brexited which might satisfy some. The trouble is the underlying issues are not to do with the European Union. And even if we leave with a deal that does not resolve our future trading relationship. The poison that is Brexit won't end. And the voters will realise that soon enough. Leaving even with a deal will harm the economy, and that's only going to fuel discontent.

It's therefore hard to see where either party go from here. Not when they are effectively split internally. The poison is here to stay.

Spinning it as 'it shows the public want us to get on with Brexit' isn't going to help their cause with voters who still think leaving is a national disaster. Those voters will still think its a national disaster and will be even more pissed at being ignored and dismissed once again.

Where is the incentive to return to voting Labour or Conservative?

The Euro Elections, if they go ahead, will therefore be about one thing and one thing only: turnout. Even if the Brexit Party do relatively well, it will be about how many turnout in comparison to the locals and in comparison to the last EU elections. Whilst they might not admit the reality of things, ultimately all Labour and Conservatives really care about is securing the vote of people who will vote because voting intention doesn't win them seats if people don't turnout.

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magimedi · 05/05/2019 11:21

PMK. Thank you, Red.

TheNorthWestPawsage · 05/05/2019 11:26

pmk

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 05/05/2019 11:26

Thanks red

TheNorthWestPawsage · 05/05/2019 11:47

Also reported the appalling tweet sent to Jess Phillips.

MadAboutWands · 05/05/2019 11:49

People are lining up for TM job. I’m not sure Dominic Raab is a good news....

www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslondon/dominic-raab-sets-out-vision-for-conservative-party-after-receiving-backing-to-replace-theresa-may/ar-AAAVy7B

NoWordForFluffy · 05/05/2019 11:49

I'm surprised anyone wants her job to be honest!

OublietteBravo · 05/05/2019 12:10

Hello. PMK. Currently in the middle of a very dull call about college rowing, so catching up with the threads.

DGRossetti · 05/05/2019 12:28

.

BollocksToBrexit · 05/05/2019 12:33

PMK

BigChocFrenzy · 05/05/2019 12:35

Thanks, red 💐

I understand why May wants to stitch up a deal:
she just wants to say she got Brexit through on her watch
and also it palms off some of the blame for the resulting economic slide onto labour

However, other than being dim & ideological, I don't see why Corbyn keeps flirting with this idea

woodpigeons · 05/05/2019 12:37

Shared on fb little.
The only good thing about Raab is that he isn’t Boris.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/05/2019 12:37

btw, although I'd be worried about a veto if we ask for an extension just to flail around longer in panic,
it's almost certain the EU would grant more time for a PV

NoWordForFluffy · 05/05/2019 12:42

The only good thing about Raab is that he isn’t Boris

Faint praise indeed!

Definitely agree, BCF. As long as the prep was in full swing with a definite date.

1tisILeClerc · 05/05/2019 12:54

{it's almost certain the EU would grant more time for a PV}

The trouble is that it will take so many months to organise and it is unlikely to result in a firm decision and there is still such a high number of people and HoC/cabinet who still haven't got the picture and believe that the UK can still call the shots in the EP. So far nothing really 'bad' has happened yet although the negativity intensifies.

Hasenstein · 05/05/2019 13:02

PMK with thanks, Red. Nothing of any merit to contribute at the moment - just an avid lurker!

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 05/05/2019 13:17

Pmk

Liked seeing all the Booths love on the other thread (dd has 5 years worth of Xmas catalogs).

woman19 · 05/05/2019 13:34

I don't know Booths, but I did know Binns which was the 'emporium' in Sunderland. I see it's sadly closed. It's where my gran would get her winter coat in the sales, and she'd make us guess how much she'd paid for it. Grin

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/05/2019 13:47

Re MPs writing letters in reply to emails. I’ve had that, and wondered if it’s so recipients can’t easily copy/paste the MP’s reply and publish it elsewhere on social media.

My mum emailed some of the labour cabinet - including Peter Dowd, shadow treasurer and MP of Bootle. She told him that the LE results showed that people despised labour for being the side kicks of the tories. He replied to her 'not in bottle they don't.'
So - the plan is, get on with brexit and then win a GE on the back of the Bootle vote - whilst pissing off every one else. Good luck with that, Peter.
I wish she was on twitter so she could post it publicly, but she's not one for SM.

and it is unlikely to result in a firm decision
I never understand why this is a problem. We are currently undergoing massive constitutional change which strips citizens of their rights due to the most slender of majorities in an advisory referendum where the winning campaign broke the law
Why the FUCK do people then try and claim that, in a confirmatory referendum, remain needs to get a decent/ landslide majority to show that we can, in fact, remain?

Why the double standard?
Yes - a slender majority won't heal the division in society. But it will stop the political mess and make it go away. The fact is, even a landslide majority - either way - won't stop some people being aggrieved. I know this because if 90% of the electorate voted for brexit in a 2nd ref I would accept the result but I would not stop being angry. It would just mean that I hated and despised and held in contempt even more of my fellow Britons than I currently do. And I would still continue to campaign for a rejoin - as would be my democratic right. I am sure there are brexiteers who would feel the same way in the event of a 90% remain vote.
The decisions are not going away. A 2nd ref isn't there to try and heal the wounds. It's there to give us political direction. And if the first could give us a brexit direction on a 52/48 split - then absolutely any majority can give us a remain direction. Otherwise they would surely be ignoring the outcome of a more recent referendum in favour of the outcome of a previous one - counting the voices of people who had died since and ignoring the voices of those who had turned 18 in the intervening years. Not exactly democratic, is it?

If the result is narrow - which means brexiteers want to keep on agitating - they are allowed to do so. If the result is a massive remain victory - and the bres=xiteers still want to agitate - they are allowed to do so. But as the government have ignored remainers for the past 3 years (acting like we don't even exist) so too can they ignore brexiteers (whose marches are far less impressive). But for the most part - most people would be glad to forget the whole sorry business. Very few would want to return to the turmoil of the article 50 process once we were stable again - even if they liked the idea of brexit in theory.

If any win was the direction we took in 2016 - no matter how slender a win - then the same rule has to apply to the confirmatory referendum. Anything else is ridiculous.

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/05/2019 14:07

Sorry leclerc I sort of went off on one based on a very short innocuous line, there.

But it is a double standard that I see widely applied. The victory of a confirmatory referendum must be decisive in order for it to change anything. But in a binary choice like this - no matter how many vote for the one thing, everyone who voted for the other will still be pissed off. The result won't actually change minds. It just changes political direction. And as 2016 proves - the margin of victory does not need to be wide for political direction to veer massively. We're not in the mess we are because the victory was slender - we are in the mess we are in because the government have done a bad job. We would still be in this mess even if the leave vote had been much higher.

Sostenueto · 05/05/2019 14:38

PMK.

Littlespaces · 05/05/2019 14:46

The lies of Nigel Farage, just in case anyone still believes in Brexit.

twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1118815402228953088

1tisILeClerc · 05/05/2019 14:52

Icantreachthepretzels
I was taking a 'world view' not the navel gazing of the UK.
Once any decision is made by the UK, even if it is remain, and certainly any version of actually leaving, has to start almost immediately with serious discussions with the EU and they will want to see an enforceable plan. In some respects it doesn't matter if the UK is staying in or going out the EU just wants a decision. What I was referring to is the fact that no one in the UK is in any sort of position to start negotiating for the foreseeable future. If the WA is signed and May is ousted and ERG types get in, it could mean a very swift departure. If the UK goes into transition, then that is an easier scenario as the UK would be 'IN' until it is definitely 'OUT' (whatever timescale gets put on it. The EU can then put the machinations of the UK on the back burner and concentrate on something else for a while.
The UK is almost where it was 3 years ago, no plan.

Mistigri · 05/05/2019 15:47

Has anyone else noticed that the trolls have had to go away for reprogramming since the local elections? Grin

Icantreachthepretzels · 05/05/2019 15:57

Peter Dowd emailed my mum again. He called her viewpoint 'jejune' and that was why he was so narrow in her response to her. Which must come as a great comfort to the good people of Bootle - that if their problems or viewpoints are not sophisticated enough to pass Mr. Dowd's high standards - he feels it enough to dismiss them in equally narrow and reductive terms. And lie. And attempt to talk down to them with big words he hopes they don't know.

I'm thinking of emailing him (he wasn't one of the ones I emailed the other day) and getting the jump on the word 'jejune'.