Today's vote - when will we know the result?

[WhiskersOnCats]

Just watching parliament and it's like some sort of circus. They're making a show of themselves.

I'm British but my family is from Nigeria. Is it relevant?

It won’t come down to revoke vs no deal. Something will happen on Monday with the indicative votes (most likely approval of the customs union)

That's interesting. But isn't TM's deal essentially a custom's union? Will MPs go for a custom's union only if it isn't labelled as TM's deal and/or the word "backstop" is removed?

I just wondered if you were European, you seem to be talking about Brits as foreign to you. I was interested to hear the perspective of someone in Europe.

No. The withdrawal agreement is very much not a customs union. It’s about how much EU legislation will still apply to the UK in the long term.

As to whether the eu will grant a lengthy extension, oh yes they will, that's what they wish, and they have already told us they will, if we tell them why, we simply have until the 12 April to do it, and they have set the summit for the tenth to review and discuss.

This is where you're wrong. An extension requires a unanimous vote from all 27 member states and I know of at least 2 who will vote No.

What we are now facing is a lengthy extension.

I don't understand this. As far as I get it, the EU will be illegally constituted if there is a member state without MEPs. So to have a long extension, the UK must take part in the EMP elections in May.

I know of at least 2 who will vote No

Do you have personal contacts?

I don't but I know that they won't. There will be some posturing, certainly. But they will agree an extension.

So to have a long extension, the UK must take part in the EMP elections in May

Yes that's right and that's what May said straight after the vote. As I've said elsewhere, it may now dawn on people that they do indeed get to elect the "unelected bureaucrats".

@WhiskersOnCats - The statement that most articulates what I'm thinking myself is from the Irish PM

We don't have a PM. We have a Taoiseach, in the same way the Germans have a Chancellor.

THe EUropean Commission are saying that a no deal is most likely on 12 April.

No. The withdrawal agreement is very much not a customs union. It’s about how much EU legislation will still apply to the UK in the long term.

Thanks for that information.

Which is why the provisional extension was until the 22nd May - EU elections start on 23rd May.

Whiskers what do you think or want to happen

Hey Parker
THe EUropean Commission are saying that a no deal is most likely on 12 April.

Yes, but try telling this lot that!

I know of at least 2 who will vote No

Do you have personal contacts?

Yes.

Some misinformation on here.

Do you have a crystal ball?

Until or unless something is agreed in parliament and rubber stamped by the EU27, revoke is open to us as an option, even unilaterally if TM decides to go rogue!

I do think / hope it's highly likely that a compromise will be found on Monday and I hope that TM won't require an emergency Bill to pass before she enacts the will of parliament.

However, no deal IS the default position and it COULD happen. I would hope that revoke would happen before crash out, but you never can tell in these bizarre times.

@feesh - I’m Belgian married to a FrenchCanadian but living in London. I’m in Brussels today - the EU is fed up with the UK. They want to get on with EU business and not spend all their time on Brexit.

An extension requires a unanimous vote from all 27 member states and I know of at least 2 who will vote No.

I'm absoltely willing to place good money on this and also come back here on the 12 of may and see you state you were wrong op.

12 April!

Show me the money!

THe EUropean Commission are saying that a no deal is most likely on 12 April

Yes I saw they said that several hours ago. Because previously May said there was no way the UK was going to take part in the the EP elections. They are the sticking point. But immediately after the vote today, May said it was likely the UK would have to take part in the elections - therefore opening the door to an extension.

The EU are not going to say no if we go to them with a sensible plan. They will say no if we just go and say we still can't make our minds up can we have longer - they have said that they won't allow an extension to become a transition without the WA.

If there is a run-off vote that gets a majority on Monday - eg whole of UK staying in CU, that is a credible plan and they would allow an extension to cater for that (as long as also take part in the elections).

Macron said he'd vote against last time and we got an extension, so we don't know what they'd say if we request another extension, until we do. As long as there's a defined plan to it, I'd imagine they'd be encouraged to agree.

They want to get on with EU business and not spend all their time on Brexit

and a long extension permits that to happen. I suspect they are not as ready for no deal as they claim, and no deal would take up a lot more time. And it's down to member states, not the EU per se.

Quite surprised that someone genuinely knows two EU heads of state personally on here. In which case, why are you wasting time on MN?

You got a 2 week extension predicated on you passing the WA which you haven't done.

I actually think, from a leavers point of view, a long extension is better than opting to revoke. If we revoke there will likely be riots on the street. There’s a lot of angry aggressive people who voted to leave 3yrs ago and are wondering why their lives haven’t magically become better. A long extension and a short facts based discussion followed by a PV is the only way to avoid anarchy.