Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

Oh yeah, and none of the above solves Brexit nor solves the problem that we are leaving the EU on the 29th March regardless of all of the above nonsense.

to the Irish

Brexit was always ultimately about NI

No. NI was the very last thing considered by Brexiters.

I am.

Speculating with a friend this week that May could be on the ASD spectrum. I don't say that lightly, I have a daughter with ASD. But her stubborness/single-mindedness is bordering on something.

She went back to the EU Again. With the same proposition despite repeated statements from them that there's no renegotiation. She won't engage with other parties/MPs unless they agree with her red lines. She's repeatedly described as someone with no conversation skills and does appear to be seriously lacking in empathy. (I realise I'm relying on MSM). But if this is true and she is fixated on her deal, then we are fucked.

Any details of a bilateral with ROI and their reaction to a renegotiation of GFA?

The GFA is an International Agreement. How would that work? Anyway it is not going to happen within 60 days is it?

Delusional. And possibly dangerous too. Leave well enough alone now thanks.

Thanks Red

Yes to the Irish. So very very sad to hear about that bomb.

@JustHereForThePooStories

You are correct. I doubt very many outside NI actually realised it was part of the UK at all. Must have come as a shock.

So here we are now. GFA potentially in tatters. Bombs going off in London/Derry today.

So fucking unnecessary. But hey, who knew anyway about NI and the GFA really, or cared much re Brexit?

This will not end well. And I am an optimist generally speaking. Am very saddened by all this really for everyone.

Meanwhile in the real world, there is a looming crisis because people are scared and are being told to order their meds earlier because there are shortages because the are hoarding them because the government is advising pharmaceutical companies to stockpile and there is concern that no deal will lead to shortages and supply chain issues.

None of the people meaned in the OP appear to give a single shit about this as they squabble.

PMK thanks for these threads red they really are what keeps me informed

Sorry to hear about the bomb.

This just gets depressing as the years/months/days go by.

I hope the PSNI investigate the car bomb very carefully.
Who stands to gain most and therefore has the greatest motive?

Ah well, we are told No Deal Brexit will solve all our issues. But what issues did we have pre potential Brexit?

Oh yes, getting back control. Of what? The Hoc is like a children's playground without any supervision.

Our borders? Well we always had control of them, even EU migrants, but no one policed the EU FOM rules.

Trade Deals? We have great deals with EU as a bloc. But I have no doubt UK will be seen as weak if Brexit happens and we will be fleeced outside that.

I am sure there are many more issues too.

Just baffled now.

Harry Cole @mrharrycole
Also enjoying the Tory Whatsapp group reacting to phone calls from the press about another election this evening...

If I could choose a superpower it would be the ability to eavesdrop on politicians undetected... To find out who really makes up the Gavin Williamson stories and why.

Place marking

Ta red

Just reading up on the car bomb, thankfully no one was hurt.

Mark Francois vowed not to stand for it (the election).......

What a shame

Thanks for thread and summary, Red. I guess this Grieve thing was what I was getting at on the last thread, or was it the one before - a parliamentary majority for a soft Brexit, regardless of party lines.

I wonder what it would mean for UK politics if parliament saved the day. Would the Tories split? Would Labour spilt?

I suppose it's all hypothetical. The reality is horrific.

Thanks for the new thread.

For the avoidance of doubt, renegotiating the GFA is a red herring. The first one took decades of involvement from across the political divides; north south, east west and across the north of Ireland. It is not primarily a bilateral UK/RoI issue. At the moment, with NI being run by civil servants, and huge public support for the GFA, there is absolutely no way to get the necessary level of engagement from the people of Northern Ireland or their elected politicians.

My heart is breaking about the car bomb. I knew it was a matter of time - actually it’s taken a bit longer than I thought. There are only so many times that a hard border can be talked about with relish in HoC and the press before people snap.

Little plea to consider calling the city in question Derry, like the majority of the residents, or at least Derry/Londonderry like the BBC. A misconception is that there was no settlement in that location until the London guilds came with English invaders to found the city in 17th C. That isn’t true - it’s actually one of the longest continued settlements on the island of Ireland.

PMK with an adaption of Lewis Carroll’s verse for Red.

The time has come,' the Walrus said,
To talk of many things:
Of shoes - and ships - and sealing-wax —
Of places - mats — and kings.

Whenever I hear an austerity motivated Leave voter’s misplaced trust in the fictional benefits of Brexit I think of the oysters in the original of this ^ poem.

I can’t even

I loathe these people for what their politicking is doing

Great summary although I agree with pp on Brexit and NI as with everything else it was a forgotten thought in their power snatching addled minds

What an absolute fuck up

Quietrebel’s poignant phrase “Hear the crowd as reason drowns” had extra resonance with news of the car bomb.

A Bomb. Pound fallen, world economic ranking fallen, injection of billions into the economy, expenditure of billions of prepping, businesses struggling or closing, food bank use increasing, shortages. But the thing is, it is incremental and cumulative - so it's possible for some politicians to maintain a state of denial.

If only there was one positive. I guess being proved right is a rather bitter one.

It's like the sinking of the Titanic except we have advanced warning of the iceberg but everyone is too busy arguing about binoculars, steaming head, reversing, stopping still, dropping the lifeboats, where are the lifeboats, what is a lifeboat.
I'm beginning to think my cat could make a better attempt to sort out this Brexit mess compared to our government.

The news of the car bomb in NI is just awful. Who in their right mind wants to return to that being a regular occurrence!

I’m flip-flopping between despair and anger at the moment. I actually can’t believe that people are having to stockpile food and medicines because of political grandstanding and callousness.

Have already had a conversation with OH that if it all goes to shit, we are leaving the country. We’re not eligible for EU passports but I’d rather make a life for us somewhere else and starts from scratch than stay in a country which is so deeply divided and has become so insular.