Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

There are many posters on another thread who said they’d vote No Deal in another referendum

Has anyone captured the reasons why this is the preferred option? It might help me not to despair and feel so much frustration and annoyance if I could see people did have their own reasons for backing this

Can you link to the thread, Marsha?

By the way, the deleting of Hazard's earlier posts suggests to me that MN is well and truly on the radar of various 'social media army' type groups. Maybe 'army' should be replaced with more neutral 'propagandists'.

I do wish MN was less porous to these but - hey - that's social media for you.

Might be time to start identifying their key tropes/styles and just reiterating warnings that posts need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

I do think that the tactic of highlighting the old style of pro-Brexit propagandists (scattergun propositions and statements; partial response; ending with a series of contradictory, implausible assertions) and warning that this was a very in-MN invasion, without reference to particular posters, was quite effective last time we had a massive invasion.

Cat here it is, took me a few goes to find it (searching How in the title in the end!), I knew I’d seen it, I didn’t read through properly then so going to have a look

How would you vote if

Hmmm.

So many thoughts.

And thanks for the link, Marsha

Labour are ahead in the latest polls (except YouGov) so the Tories should think hard if they want an election.

Labour would be much further ahead without Corbyn though.

By the way, I'm just adding this to the thread because we do collate news here, which is something I really enjoy when I read.

Alex Nunn is Corbyn's new speechwriter.

He's very much a part of the social media Corbynite group(s).

I'm deliberately holding back on my personal feelings about this. I think it's very significant, in many ways - not least because it tells us a lot about the pool of talent Corbyn and Corbynism are pulling on - but I'm not sure I can manage a reasonably linear post about it all at the moment.

Hello, Noble. 🙂

Hi Cat!

I know, Mrs8. And weeping is the rational response. So at least it shows you have a hold on reality.

Thank you for the new thread @RedToothBrush .
The idea that GFA can just be "renegotiated" in a few days to solve Brexit is nonsensical.
As a pp wisely put it, Brexit has always been about NI.
The news about Londonderry made me shiver with memories of life before GFA.
Imagine a world where news like that is on the news so often it barely registers as notable. And imagine growing up in that world.
GFA took courage and time. Something we seem to be sadly lacking.

Haha (bitter).
So Project Fear was actually Project Truth.
Who’d have thought it?

PMK. These threads are so informative.

Last dad I was talking about No Deal with my dad who said "it'll be fine, we managed all right before the EU". He's unemployed just now and wondering why it's taking him so long to find more if the same factory work he's done all his life...

I knew it was a matter of time - actually it’s taken a bit longer than I thought. There are only so many times that a hard border can be talked about with relish in HoC and the press before people snap.

Agree with you, Somerville.

And YYY there has been a settlement there for over a thousand years, even predating the monastic settlement.

Placemarking. Very interested in the discussion!

I have a lot of bad potential news headlines looming in my mind if it’s No Deal, not just shortage ones but long term job related etc and that’s before considering the sadness of dealing with NI if it goes backwards

I wonder if there are any positive ones that would happen as a result of it

Quick placemark, you're too quick for me. I was working yesterday so missed what happened to hazard's posts. Who got annoyed?

By the way, the deleting of Hazard's earlier posts suggests to me that MN is well and truly on the radar of various 'social media army' type groups.

I think they find mumsnet relative infertile territory for posting these days (weight of opinion definitely and virulently against "no deal") - perhaps this is a new tactic?

I am HORRIED by the posts on that Derry thread btw but it doesn't surprise me. Woke up to Pete North welcoming the return on violence on Twitter this morning. Unbelievable.

30 years of The Troubles
twitter.com/RachelLavin/status/1085525415765118977?s=19

I think the next GE will be determined, in part by how many people don't vote and choosing the least-worst option.

Large numbers of people feel massively disenfranchised.

FPTP

I would say that, if you really, really think you might not vote at all, go out and vote for the most Remain candidate on offer. At least you'll have tried.

If you still have hope, vote for your least-worst option.

Of corse - if Labour come out promising PV or Remain-and-Reform, I'll change that advice! 😁

But ... despite Paul Mason claiming this is going to happen, well, I'm less sure. I really hope I'm wrong.

My MP is great. She's everything I could wish for. So I'm very fortunate. I know it's not easy for others.

How likely is a GE do we think? I'd best try and keep my diary clear if we are going to have one as I don't think I can stand by and watch it all unfold without getting involved.