Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

Chickens would be handy but you might have to hide them.

We have chickens! That was part of the Brexit planning... luckily haven't lost them yet :)

That's OK chicken I'm only trying to be a bit light or I would cry and thank you for responding to my post. I tend to be ' invisible' most of the time but I plough on regardless!. Hope your mum will recover soon. I'm still fighting but after 20 years doing so am getting a bit Battle worn now as there's not much left of me!. Was thinking of donating my body to science but don't think there will be much left to carve up!
Light relief........my best friend died of an overdose of indigestion medication. Its a pity that Gavisgon!

sos.

Glad that brought a smile ballyhoo!
Omg! The beefeaters are going on strike ( true) is it a protest about eating less meat???

BigChoc

I believe it was Jason from the " Three Blokes in a Pub " series who remarked that while the UK was able to produce around 50% of it's own food ( the amount may vary depending on who you are listening to ) it has to import about 80% of the supplies needed to grow its own food.

That will become problematic if the ability to acquire those supplies become an issue. An overfed nation could probably make it on half of what it normally eats but less than that becomes questionable.

One thing where I think Jason is wrong though is his belief that hormones given to cattle to increase their size is the culprit as to why so many Americans are so overweight.

The fast food joints are really making their burgers way too big, it's like there is a race as to who can create the most calorie-laden humongous burgers possible. The proportion sizes of too many items is way more than people need to maintain a healthy weight.

I have noticed that roughly half the candy bars on offer in most stores in the U.S. come from the UK, I guess its the higher food safety standards that are driving this demand.

Stores and customers in the U.S. will be hurt as well if British goods become hard to acquire.

Portion sizes in America are humungus! When my friend went to USA with her family she said their Mcdees were twice the size and when they dined out 2 meals was sufficient for 4!

Calorie rich food is very cheap in America; fresh fruit and veg and meat that hasn't been sprayed with crap is very expensive. Ergo, poorer people tend to end up overweight

Many restaurants assume that you are going to take half your meal home with you to re-heat (I'd rather that they reduced the price by a third and cut the portion size in half, personally, but there you go)

Not only that, but there are food deserts in the US, large swathes of cities and rural areas that do not have full service supermarkets serving them. People do their best with little corner convenience stores that almost never sell fresh fruit or veg apart from maybe bananas.

So at least business is putting pressure on the Tories by refusing to donate. I suspect it’s more than just not wanting an election called by May but fedupness with the Conservative party in general, esp Boris and ERG nutters. I hope that the unions are doing the same re Labour. If neither party can afford to campaign, they’re done for. Hopefully.

Please can people comment on the Anna Soubry we chat to ask her why she isnt backing the Labour amendment? I have used up my comment already. www.mumsnet.com/Talk/mumsnet_live_events/3485256-Webchat-with-Anna-Soubry-on-Brexit-and-beyond-Tuesday-22-January-at-10-30am?msgid=84324112#84324112

I think she needs support on that thread as the leavers are giving her a hammering but still...why won't she back it???

Maybe that's why there is the talk of a long extension - to give more time for May to wear the MPs down

I’m dreading the whole thing, but to extend the deadline would make things even worse, IMO. I’m not sure how much more of this parliamentary wrangling I can take. We need certainty now.

From that Open Europe article:

"Renegotiation would basically entail the EU recognising that if indeed the EU and the UK fail to agree a trade deal,
the UK ultimately has the right to abandon the obligations resulting from the withdrawal agreement, as with any other treaty.
That makes the backstop already implicitly time-limited under the current deal. If the Irish government allows this to be made explicit, we’re pretty certain to have a Brexit deal."

I'm surprised to find I have some agreement with Open Europe on that

• I've said a few times (to some horror here) that the Tory Brexiters need not be panicking at the thought of being trapped in the backstop for ever, if no trade deal is reached:

obviously if it became intolerable, the UK would exit the WA treaty
There is no way to stop any country exiting any treaty that is too painful - if it is prepared to pay the political and economic price

Well, the price would be No Deal & international condemnation over Ireland, which is what we are facing any way on 29 March.
At least the WA gives a chance of finding a better longterm deal, because it gives a couple of years more time, which in practice could be extended for several years more rather than No Deal

Extending A50 for longer than 1 July causes serious problems for the EU,
because the UK MEP seats have already been allocated elsewhere
and because they would have the nightmare of the UK obstructing all EU business, in order to force concessions which would damage the SM

My proposal:
The EU should agree to an emergency change to A50,
to allow the option of an extended A50 period without MEPs and without Council of Europe voting rights, but retaining full benefits of all trade deals, agencies etc.

It would discourage countries from wanting to stay in A50 endlessly

• and would prevent them being able to block EU legislation and hold the EU to ransom -

but it would be a safe harbour for a country that has got itself into a hopeless muddle and needs years to sort out what it wants

TM is really on a hiding to nothing. IDS was on Today and said that she not only needs to get rid of the backstop but also ECJ oversight. Whatever she manages to get concessions on its not going to be enough for the headbangers.

She would be better off going to CU membership and calling Labour's bluff.

Interestingnpoint Xebob about American stores being hit by a lack of British produce (catching up sowly). I suspect Trump won't be so keen on trade if we cant provide or have a striking workforce due to rationing. No deal makes those very reanpossbilities and if not no deal we've been told violence willhappen regardless. This is not my country

{That will become problematic if the ability to acquire those supplies become an issue. An overfed nation could probably make it on half of what it normally eats but less than that becomes questionable.}
The fact that probably well over half the planet 'survive' or are at a level above survival on less than half the calorie intake of the UK average, suggests that a drastic cut is surviveable, or even desirable, but the issue, like now is distribution. Those who are eating too much need to reduce and ideally 'give' it to those who have insufficient (or will have once the changes happen).
A system of making fresh fruit and veg 'nearly free' for those on a very low income could be a massive boost to their welfare.

Xebob. The 'Brits' know about your candy, many don't like it. So many complaints about UK producers using palm oil and corn syrup.

BCF
{My proposal:
The EU should agree to an emergency change to A50,
to allow the option of an extended A50 period without MEPs and without Council of Europe voting rights, but retaining full benefits of all trade deals, agencies etc.
It would discourage countries from wanting to stay in A50 endlessly

• and would prevent them being able to block EU legislation and hold the EU to ransom - }

Yes, it is an excellent 'solution'.

Renegotiation would basically entail the EU recognising that if indeed the EU and the UK fail to agree a trade deal, the UK ultimately has the right to abandon the obligations resulting from the withdrawal agreement, as with any other treaty. That makes the backstop already implicitly time-limited under the current deal. If the Irish government allows this to be made explicit, we’re pretty certain to have a Brexit deal."

The is just hard right head bangers perspecti ve: - to withdraw wfekmm the WA, sign a trade deal with Trump’s US and break the SM via open Irish border.

The EU will never allow a limit to the NI component of the backstop as it protects the SM as much as NI. This is why the nackstop was made legally binding indefinitely - EU got wind o fthe headbangers plans.

The only way for the U.K. to get out of it is to ditch NI in the backstop alone.

Please excuse typos iPad screen playing up.

tatiana It is always possible to unilaterally withdraw from any international treaty
All that stops the UK from doing that is the economic and international political consequences.

Legally, there are no official penalties in the WA;
however, we would lose all the benefits and the EU might refuse to start even basic trade discussions for several years
The UK's reputation would suffer badly, not just in the EU

It is a bad choice, but currently the UK only has_ bad choices_
so it would remain a possibility if the govt of the day considered it a sufficient emergency.

Crashing out on 29 March / 1 July with No Deal would bring very similar consequences for the UK:

an economic crash, with no end in sight
international condemnation over whatever happens in Ireland

Of course a no-deal, after a good proportion of businesses were assured it couldn't happen is hardly a great opening statement for "come and do business in the UK." since the strapline is "a country in chaos where your investment counts for fuck all"

That Indie article highlighted a really weird quirk - that could be expensive for
anyone planning travel to / within the EU after Brexit AND any Brit expat there

"is your passport expiry date over 10 years more than the day on which you plan to enter the European Union?

< I suspect for expats too, this can be a problem if they need the passport for anything:

I did in 2017 in Germany, when mine then had more than 10 years

• the local govt offices were baffled to see this, kept checking and eventually phoned head office to check it would be acceptable - since I was still an EU citizen - for the forms that I needed.

Same problem with my bank there, opening a new account >

While having a travel document valid for over 10 years is no problem while the UK remains a member of the EU, it is not permitted for third-country nationals.

So affected travellers will be in the bizarre position of having to renew a passport in order to obtain one with less validity. 🤯

DG I think Boris summed up Brexit with his famous "Fuck Business" remark

Whatever else happens, that will

• and has already happened for some micro businesses who've gone bust

The "excess validity" should no longer be a problem as the Passport Office stopped adding the "unexpired" months a good few months ago (probably 6 months before Brexit Day )

The numbers affected will reduce to zero, but the Indie reported that some who renewed in 2018 would be affected on the scheduled Brexit Day