Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

Remain and Leave need mascots, don’t they? I can’t believe no one thought of this before. Leave could have Unity the Unicorn and Remain could have Revoke the Rabbit (or raccoon, prob not rat) (or co-opt Ronald Rat, he used to be very popular IIRC).
Both campaigns could fund themselves by selling key rings, T-shirts, coasters with pics of the cuddly critters. Animated cartoon TV ads would charm the electorate and lighten the tone of the debate

I’ve just read that the majority of police who will be posted to NI in the event of No Deal will be sent from Scotland “because it’s closer and Scotland has a greater understanding of the workings of the PSNI”.

Thank you to all posting in this thread making easy to find out what is going on

{ I do wonder if Labour can fight an election on a promise to re-negotiate the WA}
But the WA isn't a complete deal. If it is signed off it establishes citizens rights, the bill and something else I keep forgetting. All the trade and other 'relationship' stuff, which is huge, is all 'up for grabs' and once into negotiation of these a true direction can be negotiated.
Of course it is EU biassed, stupidity at this level isn't one one the EU's failings.
With the EU's willingness to negotiate and the 'preferential' treatment of the UK it should end up with at least a reasonable deal.

I think a lot of leavers are beyond help. However, I find not allowing them to wildly swing from one point to another before you can counter the first is useful. Make a point of focussing on one thing at a time, thoroughly and ASK THEM WHAT THEY THINK SHOULD HAPPEN>sorry for caps, seems appropriate for leavers anyway, but this is v. important. They always become unstick at this point because it is all empty slogans and no actual understanding of any of the concepts.

I’ve just read that the majority of police who will be posted to NI in the event of No Deal will be sent from Scotland “because it’s closer and Scotland has a greater understanding of the workings of the PSNI”.

Read: Because they fear English police will be killed.

It will be interesting to see if we find out more about who was behind the car bomb jn Derry and their motives.

I’ll call it for you. It was Dissident Republicans, showing everyone that they still have the explosives and the knowledge of how to use them. And they did so in a way that garnered maximum visibility and hassle but without an aim of killing people. (And, thank God, indeed there were no deaths or injuries.) It’s their warning shot. And anyone who says “it has nothing to do with Brexit” is not heeding the warning.

And anyone who says “it has nothing to do with Brexit” is not heeding the warning.

That's pretty much the mission statement of the Tory party.

{I’ve just read that the majority of police who will be posted to NI in the event of No Deal will be sent from Scotland “because it’s closer and Scotland has a greater understanding of the workings of the PSNI”. }
That reasoning is of course bollocks.
Scotland is probably less likely to see violence except the main centres of Glasgow/Edinburgh.
They are 'Not English' so possibly seen as more 'acceptable' on the street.

A video of all the awfulness post Brexit referendum. The admittance the bus was a lie the morning after. Pound plummeting, firms leaving the country, Brenda from Bristol, violence, prepping for no deal, and every single news item being about Brexit. Brexit Brexit Brexit BREXIT.

Then a rewind button being pressed.

Vote Remain: Let’s just pretend this all never happened, eh?

I also read it as payback for Scotland voting remain so they will take away some police and leave us with hardly any. Of course if Indy Ref 2 is announced soon after No Deal we may have our own policing needs (thinking back to George Square after the result)

I see a BIG problem in calling anyone 'terrorists'. As soon as you put that label you are making a resolution near i,possible. If is obviously over simplifying things but there are2 sides (often many more) to any situation.
^Terrorists are what one 'side' call the other. BOTH have at least a level of legitimate disagreement, although the reasons may be greater or lesser in overall validity as viewed by an impartial 'third party'.
One side are 'freedom fighters, the other claim to be 'righteous'. Wrong, both sides are bad.^
Pre the Belfast Treaty, large quantities of weapons and explosives made their way to NI, and I would suggest that much of it is still hidden in quiet corners.

Coming to terms with what happened to Warrington was wrapped up in the black and white thinking of 'ira bad' 'UK government good'.

It's simply not true.

There were grievances that the UK government worked hard to ignore, cover up and applify. And had crushed with violence and intimidation.

At this point, it became impossible not to have a certain amount of sympathy for the IRA.

And yet their actions were deplorable and Indefensible at the same time.

The whole thing for me, remains one of cognitive dissonance in which I hold both the view that the IRA are freedom fighters AND terrorists at the same time. And the UK government were trying to protect the public AND trying to repress the public at the same time.

In the end the situation meant that the people that both claimed to serve were both hurt the most and were victims of an inability to empathise by those who were maintaining the hostilities.

I think until you get to that point, and realise that the cognitive dissonance in this case, is healthy and the most representative way to describe the situation then I don't think you can more forward.

Neither side was righteous or came out as smelling of roses. Both were at times as reprehensible as the other.

For me this was quite hard to deal with. Going to NI and being treated with hostility just for being English and being perceived to be on a side urked me greatly, shocked and upset me. Especially with the force it was levelled.

I can stand it. Any of it.

Neither side ever represented me and neither side really thought about the interests of the innocent people who got caught up in it.

Tossers the lot of them.

PMK.

It was earlier this month, when I read about 1000 riot-trained police from England and (mostly) Scotland being readied for NI in no-deal scenario that I knew the fucking warnings from the bastards would come soon.
And yes, sectarian violence in the north never went away. But this is different, it’s the start of a new campaign.
BTW a heads up that these types want to be called the IRA. They’re not the IRA they’re a small (I hope... They’ve been recruiting hard) splinter group who represent very few. Let’s not give them the satisfaction.

I’ve just read that the majority of police who will be posted to NI in the event of No Deal will be sent from Scotland “because it’s closer and Scotland has a greater understanding of the workings of the PSNI”.

Also are they anticipating less issues in Scotland in terms of unrest?

(why is that? Austerity having less effect? It being more remain? The snp being slightly more competent comparatively?)

Or, is there something connected with religious backgrounds and police recruitment in Scotland that differs from England? And should this trouble me?

twitter.com/mudlarklives/status/1086619289422057472

Leave are busy campaigning. With artwork by Wolfgang Willrich (google him)

{The whole thing for me, remains one of cognitive dissonance in which I hold both the view that the IRA are freedom fighters AND terrorists at the same time. And the UK government were trying to protect the public AND trying to repress the public at the same time. }
I am in full agreement and the point of my post, probably expressed badly, is that all aspects need to be considered and putting an 'aggressive label on one party is not helpful to it's resolution.
If you are shot or blown apart, you are equally dead.
See also Arab/Israeli conflict and many others.

{They’re not the IRA}
In the way that the 'Yellow Vests' are not the original peaceful protestors in France.

Leave are busy campaigning. With artwork by Wolfgang Willrich (google him)

From the style I could guess.

Although it could equally as well be Soviet - from the heyday of Stalin.

{Or, is there something connected with religious backgrounds and police recruitment in Scotland that differs from England? And should this trouble me?}
I was thinking these and more.
I am reminded of the Spitting Image sketch where the cabinet refer to Scotland as 'the testing ground'. Far enough away from Westminster for it not to matter.

DGR Interesting how similar the two extremes are.

The far right genie is very firmly out of the bottle.

Wolfgang Willrich

It's all very "Tomorrow Belongs to Me"

The scary song in Cabaret.

Faisal Islam@faisalislam
Sky Sources: “Not a hope” of a bilateral treaty.

Thats PlanB (version 8) down the pan then...

Wtf "traditional family"?? Apart from the rest of the bollocks, that isolates most families. So many families have parents who aren't married, or are divorced, remarried, same sex relationships, children living with family members other than parents for many reasons. What kind of fucked up ideology is that that isolates the majority of the UK? Although, yes, keep going, and hopefully they'll hopefully get more to abandon brexit.

PestymcPestFace
I would love to put up the conditions necessary for that rural idyll to be achieved but it breaks most of the MN guidelines.

Actually after talking to a relative in Derry I’m going to hedge what I said before. The ongoing lower level thuggery in NI has been the not-IRA splinter groups. But it is thought that the IRA hierarchy has been prepping, in the way some of us are with food, in case of imposition of a hard border. Not yet clear whether this car bomb was directly from them. Might at least have been sanctioned. It was well organised which scares me.