Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

It's supposed to be tomorrow.

I can't believe we are back to car bombs.

I can just imagine the fistfights that could break out in party HQs over manifestos.
My bet is no election because no one will be able to produce any sort of manifesto that addresses Brexit and makes sense to anyone. Apart from LDs, Greens and UKIP. And the Monster Raving Loony Party, which as pp have pointed out, has some sensible policies among the jokes.

o Project Fear was actually Project Truth.
Who’d have thought it?

Turns out that reality is scary.

Hadn’t heard about the bomb. So so sorry if we are returning to those days. to NI.

Feb 28th election rumours www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/01/three-cabinet-ministers-have-told-their-local-parties-prepare-general

It would force Labour to get off the fence and clarify their Brexit position, losing them either leave or remain votes.

Thanks for the new thread RTB - Placemarking, very sadly .

I can't believe those who think the car bomb was the work of people who had understandably "snapped". They are terrorists FFS. I frequently snap but I don't set off a fucking bomb!

By the way, a friend suggested 'Enough is Enough' as the tag-line for a Remain campaign.

I like it.

I suspect if people realise that

May's WA is a working arrangement and leaves Brexit still to be negotiated, probably for the next decade'

And 'No Deal' similarly leaves all deals to be negotiated, for the next decade,

And voting for either of these means hearing about norhing but Brexit for the next decade, with frequent elections as successive governments get bogged down in the realisation it's impossible, and no money, so a continuation of austerity,

I think quite a few people might silently just not vote for those two options.

bellinisurge Sun 20-Jan-19 08:16:16
Imagine a world where news like that is on the news so often it barely registers as notable

I thought you were our resident expert on Northern Ireland?

Look at the bomb activity in 2013/14/15/16 - car bombs (or potential car bombs), letter bombs, pipe bombs...obviously these bombs pre-date Brexit.

Timeline of dissident republican activity
March 2009 - May 2018
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-10866072

I think personally we have to assume Labour just wants Brexit as much as the tories do - on paper at least. Voting for them in a GE and expecting them to stop Brexit is baffling.

Wondering if Boris, Farage and Mogg are enlisting extra security to check their cars now? I am also amazed this didn't happen sooner. I actually wondered if there would be retaliation after Jo Cox but quickly realised the extremists were on the other side when considering violence. Now we have a group with decades of experience potentially lining up the most troublesome Brexiteering politicians in their sights.

Morning everyone. Thanks for the new thread. Did I just read that some fuckwit has welcomed the return of violence in NI??

I like Enough is Enough

mother just checked the last thread to see if my other posts remain and they do! I be good now. I won't say that some long term members of Ukip appear to hate the EU because it's a collaborative talking/listening union and they don't like that because it's feminine. I would never say that because anyone who thinks like that would be a very delusional mysoginist . See I'm very well behaved

Corbyn wants Brexit, momentum want anything Corbyn wants, I don't believe that most Labour members want Brexit.

I think the next GE will be determined, in part by how many people don't vote and choosing the least-worst option.

Large numbers of people feel massively disenfranchised.

I honestly don't know which way I would jump. They are all equally awful in different ways.

Beth Rigby on Plan B and frustrating the backstop

Why does Corbyn want Brexit?

Little plea to consider calling the city in question Derry, like the majority of the residents, or at least Derry/Londonderry like the BBC.

Seems to be mainly Londonderry on BBC news this am. The reporter from Belfast said Derry.

If I was a labour remainer, I'd not trust them to remain.
IMO Corbyn is stalling because he wants Brexit and he knows if he enters into negotiations he would have to listen to his members.

The problem with enough is enough as a slogan, is its too easy to wrap around and reverse psychologically to encourage people to go for no deal rather than no brexit.

The psychology of Brexit overwhelming favours leave as a concept. Remainers still have not grasped this and still persist in thinking along rational lines that appeal to their own, rather than thinking from another perspective.

Remainers still to this day are baffled by Brexit. Its a massive handicap.

Why does Corbyn want Brexit?

Various reasons are given - EU too neo-liberal for him is one, and hoping Labour reconstruct society in the event of a chaotic, no deal exit is another.

The number of "no deal" voters on the other thread is really puzzling.

I don't want a GE because I have no one to vote for.

I get that the Leave story is a better one esp after seeing that Brexit programme

And I think it would be an even stronger story for a 2nd vote

I assumed it was because he wants to nationalise everything unopposed and believes he might do better environmental policy - and others I suspect - without their interference. He's a huge eurosceptic.

.Enough is Enough' for a slogan can also very easy be turned into 'we already had a referendum, and that was enough'.

A lot of Labour members want to Remain (especially the young ones), but a lot of Labour voters want to Leave. There are plenty of Labour MPs in staunch Leave constituencies who need to take that into account.

hoping Labour reconstruct society in the event of a chaotic, no deal exit is another.

So a sort of disaster capitalist, just like JRM?