Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

That is true Noble.

No, Bellini is the prepping expert.
Pay attention!

Another referendum is problematic for me because it can’t simply be a rerun of the first. It will be Leave/Remain knowing that the first result was Leave. There are plenty of Remain voters who accept they lost and now just want (soft) Brexit so we can leave and get on with healing the country.

Another aside - lots of leavers spreading youth unemployment figures for EU countries with us at the bottom with low figures.

1. Figures used do not care if youth is employed or IN EDUCATION.

2.Other countries have better workers rights, no gig economy with zero hours contracts threatening their mental health.

1. A far more interesting demographic would be showing the youth debt of each of these countries, esp considering our gov pushing so many into debt to get a degree.

.

I'm feeling a mixture of anger and hopelessness today. I want to shout in smug, white, male, 'wealthy' MC brexiteer faces - by which I'm surrounded in this area - that this is not in my name. I'm one of the 48%. I count to.

I did not vote for 50-100 years of austerity, as predicted by JRM and other hard-brexiteers. I did not ask to sacrifice mine and my child's lives for the greater good of unborn future generations.

I did not vote for medicine and food shortages, a tanking economy and a return to violence.

And frankly, I feel fucking furious at those who chose that on my behalf, feeling safe in the knowledge that their little bit of England will be protected from it.

How can remain project it self as the plucky under dog? it lost last time so there's a start, it's the come back kid. It's very hard to convey plucky!

I can see that an election would be preferable to politicians on the grounds that there are still no restrictions on telling lies and making false promises when electioneering, whereas a second referendum might have much tighter ground rules and fact checking than the previous one, which would leave many with literally nothing to say. But really, who could write a manifesto for Labour or the Conservatives that included Brexit and could be supported by the whole party?
Best outcome: May calls election. Manifestos published. MPs on both sides, aghast, cannot bring themselves to campaign on manifesto, jump ship and stand as independents. New party arises from ashes (hopefully, Remain inclined).
(I’m quite invested in the idea of Brexit breaking the system.)

Just listened to yet another a barefaced lie for Raab on Sophy Ridge's show (don't normally watch it but currently in an hotel room)

He claimed that leaving would allow the UK to have more freedom on domestic policy, including, as an example "reducing NI for lower paid workers"

Dh also observed that the Benedict Cumberbatch Brexit drama has boom a useful boost to the Brexit zealots politicians, reminding them to keep repeating the mantra of "taking back control"

Plaice Mat King.

No, Bellini is the prepping expert
Pay attention!

I did - you missed the scuffle we had when I referred to southern Ireland. I was only talking about milk and oil exports - but I got a lecture on the GFA agreement instead.

GFA instead

The GFA covers more than the border. It guarantees people in NI their human rights. Something May seems very eager to get rid of. FFS the UK pretty much wrote those rights.

Any brexit is going to be messy. Forty years of integration is a world that has moved so far. May's plan is no worse that any other.

Other EU countries don't matter, to be honest.

What matters is world standing.

In the EU we are ranked well above those poorer nations.

Outside the EU we get busted well below them.

There is real poverty in many EU countries, which is somewhat ameliorated by being in the EU.

I've never forgotten a poster, claiming to be a Lexiteer, welcoming an 8% cut to UK GDP, claiming it would put us alongside Portugal.

And Portugal's great, right?

Sunny, beaches, cheap holiday.

BUT Portugal has a shanty town just outside Lisbon.

And a lot of the effects of that low GDP are ameliorated because they are in the EU.

Brexiteers are fucking nuts.

And they rely on people not thinking too hard.

Sorry, that was a reply to LonelyTiredAndLow

Hazard how about something like "when Eric eats a straight banana he turns into..." I think something can be played around with there to keep it humorous, retro to mid 30s Brexiteer childhoods and also small geeky kid who gets powers...?

Place mat king

I could honestly cry at the mess they've pulled us into.

Me and DS were watching the 2017 opening of Parliament queens speech yesterday (he wanted to see Black Rod) and she opened with "My Lords and Members of the House of Commons.

My government’s priority is to secure the best possible deal as the country leaves the European Union....".

Fat lot of good that speech was, they've had two years and made a right pigs ear of it.

Morning all, how the hell is anyone supposed to get any work done with this interesting thread being so active?

{I can't believe those who think the car bomb was the work of people who had understandably "snapped". They are terrorists FFS. I frequently snap but I don't set off a fucking bomb!}

I see a BIG problem in calling anyone 'terrorists'. As soon as you put that label you are making a resolution near i,possible. If is obviously over simplifying things but there are2 sides (often many more) to any situation.
Terrorists are what one 'side' call the other. BOTH have at least a level of legitimate disagreement, although the reasons may be greater or lesser in overall validity as viewed by an impartial 'third party'.
One side are 'freedom fighters, the other claim to be 'righteous'. Wrong, both sides are bad.
Pre the Belfast Treaty, large quantities of weapons and explosives made their way to NI, and I would suggest that much of it is still hidden in quiet corners.
I was going to ask someone either from NI or has good knowledge, whether the occasional 'small' bombings, and the summary 'justice' ever really stopped post the BA or it just fails to get to the UK 'mainland'? There was a heart wrenching programme trailed (I couldn't get it on a computer) about mothers taking 16 year old boys to be kneecapped for 'crimes'. Preloading them with painkillers and taking them straight to A+E afterwards.

Where the hell is the UK going?

It will be interesting to see if we find out more about who was behind the car bomb jn Derry and their motives.

I think it's a bit early to call Brexit on that one. Violence has continued (albeit at much lower levels) since the GFA and the fact that it was outside a courthouse made me wonder whether it's related to an ongoing court case.

That being said some of the things our politicians have been saying about Ireland and their willingness to just drop the GFA for their own purposes obviously plays into radicalisation of Republicans.

Observer today seems to be suggesting Corbyn is “poised” to back the no-deal amendments, contrary to much being discussed on here this morning? More constructive ambiguity?
So, it seems an election is where we are heading. I do wonder if Labour can fight an election on a promise to re-negotiate the WA, or at least the PD (I know, unicorns), but on the promise that any negotiated deal has to be ratified by a second referendum? Would swithering remainers go for this? Would it dis-enfranchise the Labour Leavers?
Another election would be interesting in my area - my MP has the smallest majority in Westminster (2), however, I think all the chaos of late would see him increase this - he’s SNP. I also wonder what of the Tories in Scotland if there is another election? Has May factored in th4 Scottish element? (Probably not)

As regards PV

I think there is no swaying hard-core Leavers. They're beyond help.

The point is to reach out to

• those Remainers who are so stressed/tired of the situation, they might not vote

• to incentivise all Remainers to get out and vote

• to provide enough of a reason for the slightly-ambivalent/regretful Leavers to stay home and not vote.

I actually think s lot of Leavers are in that last camp. They'll never admit to what a fuck up they made. But they quietly wish it would all go away.

There's a lot of power in reversing the whole, 'Just get on with it' sentiment.

There is no 'just getting on with it' with s pro-Brexit Vote.

You're voting for a decade more of this shit.

People need to know that.

If you're fed up with this,and want people to 'just get on with it' - you need to vote 'Stop.' Which is 'Remain' And Revoke A50.

The psychology of Brexit overwhelming favours leave as a concept. Remainers still have not grasped this and still persist in thinking along rational lines that appeal to their own, rather than thinking from another perspective.

So how do remainers change in order to fight it? I see on threads here all the time - we send billions to the EU and the EU are refusing to give us a good deal. And of course, senior politicians are saying that too. What can remainers do?

.

John Rentoul @ johnrentoul
Tories and Labour neck and neck: no significant change in @ComRes poll for Sunday Mirror/Sunday Express

Support for Brexit options: @ComRes poll for Sunday Mirror/Sunday Express

If a referendum were held today, the result would be 54% Remain, 46% Leave: @ComRes for Sunday Mirror/Sunday Express

I love how the thing people want least is a GE...

This video from Labour saying why they want an election fluffily says that they will negotiate for a Brexit that will unite Remainers and Leavers. It conspicuously fails to mention any tricky details like freedom of movement.

But it is very clear that Labour first and foremost are committed to delivering Brexit. twitter.com/uklabour/status/1085198280907284480?s=21