Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

Wtf "traditional family"?

I think we all know ... no gays, no queers, single mums are not to be encouraged, so no benefits making ... I can imagine a lot of ensuring women know their place. We all know the heirarchy of needs ...

Class
Sex
Race

So white men at the top, and poor coloured women at the bottom.

Where do I not sign up ?

When IRA are mentioned, am I correct in thinking it's the provisional IRA ? What's the actual IRAs stance - I thought they had decided engagement wasn't for them ????

And this is where the Mercer/Breitbart links comenin - evangelical leanings.

Should have known religion would be coming into it. My leaver friend saying IRA were religious zealots boils it down to religion rather than the details. More them against us mentality trusting that most Brexiteers went to CofE schools and rolls on into the fearmongering of immigration. I wonder if most leavers understand the undercurrents here?

RTB Scottish police may have more experience of dealing with sectarian issues. And I suppose might have more RC officers than England. But all that very tenuous. It’s so they have enough in England for London + ports, I’m guessing. Also they’d rather supplement police with army on this island than island of Ireland.

Before I get confused can someone explain the provisional IRA/real IRA/other groups to me please? I grew up in great fear of the IRA, my brothers checking under their cars for bombs, not opening suspicious post, their coming home dates being in code. I was an anxious mess in the late 80s/early 90s because they were over there. Then there was Manchester in 1995. As I've said, I can't imagine what hell it must have been in NI. We can't go back to that situation.

From Beth Rigby again:

Liam Fox on this: I’m not asking Them to change their position [on having a backstop] The question is can we achieve what we want by a different mechanism #marr

The compromise? Fox makes it clear her compromise is with the EU/Dublin on backstop. So..... Confirmed. May’s Plan B is May’s deal with movement on backstop > Does cabinet all know something we don’t? Are Brussels/Dublin having a huge change of heart? #marr

Can I ask..how can negotiation with Ireland bypassing the EU even remotely possible?? I'm truly lost

I think until you get to that point, and realise that the cognitive dissonance in this case, is healthy and the most representative way to describe the situation then I don't think you can more forward.

Excellent analysis.
To extend it a bit further, those of us who grew up with this kind of cognitive dissonance then in turn transferred it to the so-called border. So talks of imposing that again were, to start with, mind boggling for lots of people, even with their distrust of Westminster. And now it feels something that both symbolised and was the central tenant of peace is being ripped away.

The only good thing is that a majority of the north all feel the same way about protecting the GFA and our open ‘border’. Any Brit politician whose actions flies in the face of that is... (I might be deleted if I finish that sentence.)

PerverseConverse
I asked essentially these questions on MN some months back and got banned. I hope this is not the case now as people need to understand what the situation is. It is very complicated, almost a 'mini me' of Brexit itself.

{Any Brit politician whose actions flies in the face of that is... (I might be deleted if I finish that sentence.)}
You have practically defined the problem.

You got banned for asking about the IRA leClerc? What, a suspension?

The IRA was started in 1913 to fight for Irish independence. Often referred to as old IRA.
The Provisional IRA began in late 1960’s, generally called, again, just the IRA, to fight for the end of Brit rule in NI and to bring attention to the civil rights abuses.
Since ceasefire (and even prior to that when people fell out) there have been various splinter groups with a variety of names.

@1tisILeClerc thanks, I'm just trying to get my head round everything. Sometimes I wish I was 10 years older so I knew more of the history of the Troubles. Trying my best to read up and very grateful to all of you as have no family or friends with which to discuss. My mum is a go with the flow always voted Tory as did her parents and my dad and never really questioned anything. My family hated me as I questioned everything in an attempt to try and understand the world. I'm NC with most of them now. Britain first posting idiots that they are. I've no doubt they all voted for brexit. At least my mum deeply regrets being ignorant of the issues and voting leave.

Today is a hectic day for me so I'm having trouble keeping up with the thread however, I've just read a few posts about possible remain mascots and how a campaign could tackle the remain message.
I think last time, the stroke of genius was the visually striking Leave bus (And its lies of course). Here are my two cents:

Remain this time should turn that on its head and play on colours too:

BREXIT= BLACK & WHITE
Think old 70s TV set, dusty old fashioned interior
Black and white vision implies harking back to the past but also simplistic tunnel vision
It also evokes depression, both mental and economic.

REMAIN=BRIGHT COLOURS
think 4k, high quality image, modernity
It's not just bright, it suggests diversity (cultural etc) and pluralism of views.
It's also optimism.
Also focus on the youth, blow away the cobwebs.

Campaigns I think are won on visuals, so Remain needs to play on that. I grant you it's not subtle but hey...

Thanks @Somerville .

There were quite a few horrible threads before Christmas that were very anti-English due to the history. I hate that some hold the current English population in contempt for what happened before our time. Obviously the ongoing issues and successive governments have had a massive effect but some are out for blood if you have the cheek to be English. I didn't realise until those threads how much hatred there still was. Makes me very sad. On another thread of mine I'm getting grief for calling the border the Irish border (as that's how I've anyways known It) as it's the British border apparently. I've caused great anger by mis-naming it.

The IRA was started in 1913 to fight for Irish independence. Often referred to as old IRA. The Provisional IRA began in late 1960’s, generally called, again, just the IRA, to fight for the end of Brit rule in NI and to bring attention to the civil rights abuses.

Wasn't the pIRA formed because the official IRA had decided it wasn't possible to win a war with the British and it was better to concentrate on political pressure ?

I ask, because my understanding (from reading and talking, but not living) was that both sides during "the troubles" damn well knew there was no military solution.

Meaning that all the people killed - on both sides - were pretty much sacrificed in the name of appearances ?

Or, in summary, I have no faith in the UK government having any interest whatsoever to work to prevent violence, as long as they can spin the story it was them what done it .

Cognitive dissonance indeed.

I remember my mother crying when Labour got in in 97, saying 'there'll be peace in the north'.

I have such rage now towards the Tories.

My mum is a go with the flow always voted Tory as did her parents and my dad and never really questioned anything

Even after 20 years of bombs in Britain ? Never once wondered "What's all this about ?"

It was that attitude which so astounded the people I started meeting from NI when I was at Uni. As the said, "you'd think if someone was trying to kill you, you'd want to know the real reason ?"

There were quite a few horrible threads before Christmas that were very anti-English due to the history. I hate that some hold the current English population in contempt for what happened before our time.

My take has been the converse: seems a lot of Irish have moved on - it's dinosaurs like the DUP that are living in the 70s.

the official IRA had decided it wasn't possible to win a war with the British and it was better to concentrate on political pressure ?

They shot a (Catholic) Derryman because he was in the British army and kind of lost support/went down a far left road (people's revolution against capitalism)/melted away. As I understand it roughly.

apileof ballyhoo I arrived in the UK in 97. There were quite a few students from Northern Ireland at my university I recall. I remember it as a very optimistic time indeed.

On a different note, history is never far, like the new exhibition in London/Derry on the famine; timely reminder of a difficult past:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-northern-ireland-foyle-west-46910115

A good place to start if you want more background info in a very watchable format, Perverse is Patrick kielty’s recent documentary for the BBC.
People can remain angry about both the historic actions of the Brits in Ireland and their more recent experiences 20-30 years ago and not hold that against English people personally. I was born in Derry and my childhood and teens were scarred by the violence. I’ve witnessed sexual assaults by English squaddies as we tried to cross “the border” that we had absolutely no recourse to complain about. One put a gun in my cousins mouth when her puppy barked. And relatives were killed.
For years after moving to England I had what I now recognise we’re panic attacks if I saw a police officer or soldier. But nowadays most of my friends are English and to my chagrin my romantic taste is for posh Englishmen! As a result I’ve spent most of my adult life here.
You’ll find most Irish people from whichever side of the border feel the same - the may have anger about English historic or recent actions but they don’t have anti-English-people prejudice.

DGRossetti I'll have to ask her more about it. She voted labour last time after I pointed out that her Tory voting had resulted in her own hardships. I'm now politically homeless and no idea who I would vote for.

Maybe the threads were illustrative of the dinosaurs. One poster in particular made me wonder at the hatred towards the English now.

I'm off to the library tomorrow to get a good history book.

As an observation, the 'British' have always been very happy to kill anyone in their way. I am not singling out the British as most of Europe have had a go over the centuries. Britain (or the UK did not rule a significant part of the planet by 'asking nicely' but brutal repression if there was opposition.
The difference for me is that Europe, minus the UK has decided that cooperation is the way and do not glorify the swashbuckling past, at least not to the same level.
It seems there is an inner streak on the British (UK) that won't let their former triumphs go.
I am not a historian but the idea of death camps and extermination was not a German original. Many were doing this in the past.
With the age of mass communication (say late 1920s onwards) the existence of such deeds became more widely known.

I believe (though no expert) that the main groups now are the New IRA and Saobardh (sp?) which means something like Liberty or Freedom in English.

Both groups that hark back to the old ways of not believing in political discourse. Saobardh is a extreme left wing group.

I understand estimates put them at about 500 between them...which is nothing in politics but plenty to start things back up again in terms of violence, especially as our right wing politicians are making propaganda very easy for them at the moment.

Both groups have some big names from the 80s/90s at their top levels.

@Somerville . I'm so sorry.

Thanks for the hugely informative OP RTB.

That image on the Rural Conservative poster Pesky shared - is that really what some people want to return us to? A ridiculous Lark Rise to Candleford rosy view of the past. All golden, late summer sunlit hazy fields being worked by the happy, salt of the earth poor. A reality that never existed. The best most people could hope for was that the Lady of the Manor might be benevolent enough to appear in your hovel with bowl of broth to comfort you as you died of galloping consumption.