Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

[BigChocFrenzy]

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

Adam Wagner @adamwagner1
I feel the country is not currently blessed with leaders who are gifted in the art of compromise

May is the kind of person you want in control of a longstanding dispute with the electric company over an £83 overcharge that ultimately, 5 years later, leads all the way to the Supreme Court

Corbyn is best suited to a dogged 20-year campaign to have the colours of your local traffic lights changed for some reason

Dave IH @davidih
May is the person who has a 15 year battle with the neighbour over a hedge

Adam Wagner @adamwagner1
And wins because the neighbour dies

I suppose we must be in a democracy because if all this 'banter' had been conducted in N Korea, there would have been a lot of unpleasant 'knocking on doors' in the middle of the night.

Another option for the PV?

shambu Many politivcians indeed think they can dictate to the EU and the world
However, I was primarily addressing those who plan imminent amendments

In general though, most MPs have been disgracefully ignorant and many still are:

Haven't you seen all those MPs on TV and online, proclaiming how brilliantly the UK can do with No Deal / WTO terms

and those claiming that the Norway / Sweden border is frictionless

and those leading negotiations claiming that getting their cake deal would be "the easiest deal in history"

and remember Raab without shame admitting he hadn't realised Dover was so important for our food imports.

and MPs still concentrating on a CU for british exports, when it is the SM - plus a Customs agreement, which need not be a full-blown CU - that is essential for frictionless trade

red "Brexit is 2 years of watching your uncle haggle on prices with the scanning machine at a Tesco check-out"

MissMalice
An interesting idea.
There are a couple of thoughts though.
Current EU nationals may prefer to return to the EU.
Who would want to be in charge of the UK after a 'brain drain'?

The thing is, May's letter makes clear that her idea of 'compromise' is to sit still and keep on giving MPs the choice of the WA or No Deal.

Which is why she must be made to vouchsafed No Desl is off the table. Either through a guarantee or through an act stating A50 will be revoked if no deal is reached by X date.

We know what she's like.

And I still think it's immoral that No Deal is being used to threaten Parliament and UK citizens.

There's nowhere near enough outrage about this. It's disgraceful behaviour.

LOL as a very near neighbour of Our Treesa I can confirm that is very close to the truth!

Except her neighbours love her as she doggedly pursues their best interests when it comes to NIMBY matters.

I'd like to point out I live very close and also a million miles from her.

Reported by the Fail (& many other papers):

"Nick Boles is tabling an amendment that would empower backbenchers to push through legislation extending the Article 50 process by nine months"

At most the amendment can instruct May to request this
Also, I don't know how MPs can legally force May to do this

Moral pressure of a vote won't work well on someone who is still pushing her stale WA.

words matter:
because many readers will believe MPs actually have the power to do what the media say they can

BCF
Are they still current observations of MP 'world knowledge' or historical?
I would like to think that a 'reeducation programme' for all MPs together with a thorough reading of the WA had been going on.
MPs should not be allowed to dismiss the WA if they have not read it and be able to answer a handful of questions about it.
The reverse of 'ignorance of the law is no defense' type of thing.

By the way BigChoc, thank you for posting that YouGov poll.

That is truly astonishing - not least in its implications.

Surely some MPs must realise that, even if they represent Leave constituencies, those same voters are going to be angry and blame their MP if and when they actually do get what they supposedly wanted?

Quietrebel love your summary.

Charly

cat The problem with requiring No Deal be off the table is that this requires it to be replaced by something else:

If it is the WA, then May will just sit tight, block everything else and let time run out, because it's what she wants

If it is Revoke, Remainers will block

• and 90% of the Tories, plus Corbyn and others, would never accept the default is overturning the 2016 ref.

The only other possibility is to replace it by a reauest for an extension, but if the UK continues squabbling over what we want, it is by no means certain that at least one EU member won't veto an extension.

How well does 'bugger off' work when HMRC demand money from you?

I'm surprised Sterling and the markets are holding up so well, now we're past mid-Jan:

They presumably don't believe the govt will actually let No Deal happen and / or don't realise the full consequences ?

• but EU analysts atm have No Deal as the most likely outcome

Many politivcians indeed think they can dictate to the EU and the world. However, I was primarily addressing those who plan imminent amendments

I know you’re not talking to me, but I think you’re conflating the Brexiters left and right with everyone else.

The reason these amendments are being brought is because the MPs responsible know that this is one means of blocking the government from actively choosing no deal. I don’t believe that Boles or Grieve or Cooper are under any illusion this impacts EU law. If it comes off it will simply force the U.K. government to avert automic no deal fallout.

The most likely option to avoid no deal atm is extension imo, for what end is to be decided...

Not sure who they are but they certainly can't thing through a few 'what if' situations and are refusing to understand that ONLY a handful who will gain through 'disaster capitalism' will get rich.

Exactly 1TisILeClerc.

Is it likely EU analysis would have a more no deal prodiction than the UK's because the UK is the one with the power to Revoke? The EU are powerless to stop no deal so its wise for them to brace first.

Prediction* not prodiction as that's not a word I don't think!

No deal enthusiasts are all over my Facebook feed. They are actual people known to people I know. They definitely exist and they are very fed up at present. More fed up than I feel they should be given where we are.

I deactivated my Facebook account a few weeks ago springtimeyet. Admittedly it wasn’t just because of Brexit alone, but I did see a fair few memes popping up like ‘Leave means Leave’ and ‘I voted Out’ etc.

Worst thing is that quite a few of them are husband’s family members. I know everyone is entitled to vote whichever way they wish and I would never make any comment, but you’d think given how crap the current situation is they’d be less vocal.

Thank you Loletta

It’s crap isn’t it?

charley22 sorry to read of your situation and I'm very happy your here