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Brexit

Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 15:17

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

OP posts:
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PerverseConverse · 16/01/2019 15:19

Thanks for the new thread!

Hazardswan · 16/01/2019 15:21

Thank you! It's my first bigchoc thread Grin

PMK

DGRossetti · 16/01/2019 15:22

.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 16/01/2019 15:24

Totally uncharted territory for me. First bigchoc thread.

Nicely done.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 15:27

Its only about my 3rd 🙂

OP posts:
springtimeyet · 16/01/2019 15:28

Very nice bigchoc

TatianaLarina · 16/01/2019 15:28
Gin
1tisILeClerc · 16/01/2019 15:30

Thanks BCF.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 15:30

Right, I've a late meeting, so play nicely for a while,
so no hair-pulling and any eyes gouged out must be politely handed back

OP posts:
ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 16/01/2019 15:31

I'm probably confused, but my understanding was that any renegotiations would be about future relationships, and would be negotiated after we exit.

The withdrawal agreement is set in stone and will not be changed. Therefore the only options are crash out with no deal, the WA, or revoke A50?

Apileofballyhoo · 16/01/2019 15:31

Great thread title BigChoc. Made me laugh!

Hazardswan · 16/01/2019 15:33

I had forgot the bit about the 27 states agreeing to what I'm dubbing the fannying about extension.

AutumnCrow · 16/01/2019 15:34

I'm watching the parliament channel. I really really should be finishing my tax return ...

JustAnotherPoster00 · 16/01/2019 15:34

PMK thanks BCF

derxa · 16/01/2019 15:35

.

QueenMabby · 16/01/2019 15:35

Thank you BCF.
PMK - nearly school run time for me but I’ll want to catch up as soon as I’m back.
I’m just Sad over it all at the moment and admit I’m struggling to see a way forward that will make anyone happy! Apart from a revoke of course, which would make me happy!

DGRossetti · 16/01/2019 15:36

The withdrawal agreement is set in stone and will not be changed

It can be revisited if (and only if) the UK changes Theresa Mays it's red lines. At which point an extension to A50 would be seriously contemplated.

Otherwise, that's the deal on the table.

RedToothBrush · 16/01/2019 15:36

Thanks BigChoc!

The system works!

Hazardswan · 16/01/2019 15:38

Itsallgoingtobefine - MPs don't like the WA so they want that renegotiated. As far as I know, which isnt a lot, we could have negotiated a deal during this time with the EU but because of divisions with gov about what sort of relationship to have that was not achievable. What we couldn't do during this time is set out concrete trade agreements with non EU countries.

DGRossetti · 16/01/2019 15:39

I had forgot the bit about the 27 states agreeing to what I'm dubbing the fannying about extension.

There will have been a lot of "informal" (to exclude the UK) behind-closed-doors talks to ensure the EU27 can be seen to act as one. Somewhere there will be a checklist of terms that the EU would need the UK to have provided in order to count on the EU27s assent.

it's a testament to how united the EU are, that Spain and France are willing to put to one side the opportunity to stick it to the UK in the interests of the whole. It makes me weep for what we are abandoning.

SusanWalker · 16/01/2019 15:41

One good thing about TM making no deal her policy:

Moderates all resign and brexiteers take their place in the cabinet. Brexiteers have to own their shit.

Hazardswan · 16/01/2019 15:44

DG it makes sense for them to informally chat. Now you've mentioned Spain I'm going to Google pictures and interviews of their PM because he soothes my soul Grin

So handsome
He increased minimum wage
Said reassuring words about brexit

Dreamy man he is....

TheElementsSong · 16/01/2019 15:45

Ooh, thanks for the new thread BigChoc!

PerverseConverse · 16/01/2019 15:46

@DGRossetti but the deal was rejected so how can it be on the table? Am confused Confused

Shitmewithyourrhythmstick · 16/01/2019 15:48

Place marking.

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