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Brexit

Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 15:17

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

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ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 17/01/2019 20:40

I do hope someone's researching them. I think we'd learn a lot about irrational beliefs and pursuit of counter-intuitive, irrational ends

I think you are right. Looking back at Brexit in 10-20 years time will be fascinating. Just wish I wasn’t living through it

TatianaLarina · 17/01/2019 20:44

It’s Maugham’s opinion that the HoC can legally compel the PM to revoke with a vote. The other option is an act.

IsobelKarev · 17/01/2019 20:45

cat, I know two types of extreme hard brexiters.

The first are people in low skill, low wage jobs. From their perspective, over the last 10-20 years the jobs they/their parents did are now being done by Eastern European workers for less money, meaning their quality of life has (at least) stagnated if not lessened, especially in comparison to average. So where (say) 50 years ago my grandfather employed local farm labourers, the majority of farm labouring is now done by immigrants.

The second group are the ones my grandfather deems "bloody fools with poor memories" - the retired generation of farmers that he has known most of his life. This group genuinely believe life was better before joining the EEA (I think that's the right acronym?!) and could be that good again. I'm not old enough to remember, but my grandfather is adamant that they are remembering incorrectly, and that the world has moved on so being independent from the EU now is a whole different kettle of fish.

IMO, the first group should be directing their wrath at the UK government for not acknowledging their difficulties and for facilitating their being left behind. Whereas the second group are simply misguided. The thing they have in common, though, is that their views have been increasingly entrenched over a seriously long time frame. I don't think either group can be easily persuaded.

TatianaLarina · 17/01/2019 20:45

Have you found legal references that agree with North?

BigChocFrenzy · 17/01/2019 20:47

French PM Edouard Philippe will present the French No Deal plans for their Assembly to be voted on next Wednesday and the Senate on Thursday.

really investing money now:

recruiting & training many hundreds more customs officers, vets, building infrastructure in ports and airports.

For Brit expats, there will be protection of (some of) their rights, setting up the administrative procedures and permits, so they can continue living / working / retiring in France

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2019/01/17/la-france-declenche-son-plan-lie-a-un-brexit-sans-accord54104044_3210.html

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Hazardswan · 17/01/2019 20:52

Slightly outing... I'm related to ukippers (not farage!) Their want for brexit is something deeper then what's been discussed in papers and quite complex. I assume people don't bother discussing them as they are a minority and they are a depressing bunch.

thecatfromjapan · 17/01/2019 20:52

Thanks Isobel (and suggestions from Swedish and AdequateFood.

Anyone else? Does anyone know any urban Leavers?

I have s problem in that I don't know any. Well, I've come across one very, very posh one (title and estate) and that's not the type I'm interested in.

SwedishEdith · 17/01/2019 20:54

Sky News Breaking
@SkyNewsBreak

Technology firm Philips says it is going to close its factory in Glemsford in Suffolk and transfer its operations to the Netherlands putting 430 jobs at risk

thecatfromjapan · 17/01/2019 20:55

Go on, Hazard, what do you mean by 'deeper'?

Honestly, I'm wondering if I could get away with doing participant observation in Upminster this weekend.

IsobelKarev · 17/01/2019 20:56

My first group includes some urban leavers - I had a very in depth conversation with a cleaner at work about it. She was juggling two zero-hour contracts and watching her (adult) children struggle to find work as they didn't have qualifications. She didn't have sympathy for anyone in professional jobs as she felt they could always find other work.

thecatfromjapan · 17/01/2019 20:58

What was she like personality-wise, Isabel?

QueenieIsLost · 17/01/2019 20:59

The second group are the ones my grandfather deems "bloody fools with poor memories" - the retired generation of farmers that he has known most of his life.
That’s my PIL.
Whatbthey want is a come back to a more simple way of life Hmm
As if leaving the EU is going to change the Internet, the way politics are done etc....
Same geographical area, when Alevels students are asked what’s the % of foreigners in their town is, the answer is about 20%. In realty, it’s 0.5%. It’s like they haven’t actually opened their eyes to who is around them. At school, in the streets tc.... that’s an area that voted leave quite strongly too. (And. Leary has embraced the ‘we are invaded by foreigners’ story line)

SeaRabbit · 17/01/2019 20:59

The link posted earlier to the Yougov poll now seems to lead to an empty page, and I can't find the poll anywhere on the Yougov website...

SwedishEdith · 17/01/2019 21:03

Yes, it's my PIL as well. Don't "believe" in internet banking. Don't understand why people can't still go to the bank in their lunchtime and do all their banking then. There's loads more, loads, along these lines. I'd had over 15 years of it.

IsobelKarev · 17/01/2019 21:07

She was very family oriented, and had a "we help each other out" approach to her family and friends. I got to know her quite well as she was very chatty and I'm easily distracted from work. TBH, her attitude towards "professional types" was quite abrasive, but that was unsurprising as most people where I worked often felt too busy to hold even a brief conversation with cleaners. She was generally a positive person, despite having a difficult time of it. I'm a teacher so I'm biased, but I do wonder if her children had a better education, more qualifications and therefore better job prospects she may have had a totally different perspective. Hence why I blame successive UK governments for the "leave at all costs" attitude of people like her.

thecatfromjapan · 17/01/2019 21:14

Wow. That's fascinating, ^Swedish, Queenie and Iva.

IsobelKarev · 17/01/2019 21:14

Tbf, grandad doesn't trust internet banking. But you should hear his rants on "strawberries tasted better in the old days". It starts with "no they bloody well didn't". It's quite annoying actually, because he's from wealth but been poor most of his life, well educated but not an intellectual snob, followed politics pretty religiously and has an excellent memory so I liked talking to him about Brexit, but he won't discuss it anymore because the whole bloody mess makes him so angry.

thecatfromjapan · 17/01/2019 21:15

Sorry, Isobel.

Yes, I think my titled person thinks there are just too many cities.

derxa · 17/01/2019 21:23

The second group are the ones my grandfather deems "bloody fools with poor memories" - the retired generation of farmers that he has known most of his life. This group genuinely believe life was better before joining the EEA (I think that's the right acronym?!) and could be that good again. I'm not old enough to remember, but my grandfather is adamant that they are remembering incorrectly, and that the world has moved on so being independent from the EU now is a whole different kettle of fish. i don't believe this for a second

IsobelKarev · 17/01/2019 21:24

Don't believe what?

PerverseConverse · 17/01/2019 21:32

It's a very different world to 30/40 years ago!

BigChocFrenzy · 17/01/2019 21:37

@SeaRabbit this YouGov link works for me on both the App and in Safari:

yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/12/06/mays-brexit-deal-leads-just-two-constituencies-it-

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Hazardswan · 17/01/2019 21:52

This reply has been deleted

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Apileofballyhoo · 17/01/2019 21:59

What don't you believe, derxa?