Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

[BigChocFrenzy]

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

there is not sufficient time to redo the existing WA.

Of course not, but the EU have said that the only renegotiation possible would be on the basis of changing the red lines. There's no time to do so before March or even before July. The only thing is if we have to go to GE possibly PV as well, the EU might reluctantly have to make a longer commitment letting the U.K.sort their shit out. Of course they may stick firm on July.

I just keep thinking...who are these people who still see No Deal as a viable option???

Not talking about Rees-Mogg and the like, but ordinary people???

Of course they may stick firm on July.

I hope they do in a way as I think longer plays into the hands of the no dealers.

You're welcome @Charly22

Call me crazy (it sounds extreme)...but would the UN not feel justified in getting involved here? I mean ultimatey we are breaching conditions under Tories anyway and Brexit does threaten international peace. In my mind we have had a Tory coup; they refuse to have a GE...

{I just keep thinking...who are these people who still see No Deal as a viable option??? }
Not sure who they are but they certainly can't thing through a few 'what if' situations and are refusing to understand that ONLY a handful who will gain through 'disaster capitalism' will get rich.

{Brexit does threaten international peace.}
I doubt that. When they have stopped laughing they will be offering 'deals' at greatly inflated prices.

No deal enthusiasts are all over my Facebook feed. They are actual people known to people I know. They definitely exist and they are very fed up at present. More fed up than I feel they should be given where we are.

@LonelyandTiredandLow as a kid, I was desperate for the UN to send peacekeepers to NI instead of British troops. It was always poo pooed because it was an "internal uk matter". I guess the same would apply.

Any extensions will only be considered if the EU can gain from it.
The UK has squandered most of it's bargaining power despite what some MPs who should know better are spouting.

but would the UN not feel justified in getting involved here?

Errr no.

In my mind we have had a Tory coup; they refuse to have a GE

You may not like them and fundamentally disagree with them, as I do but they are under no obligation to have GE. Your mind is incorrect.

Corbyn tried to force one and lost it.

bellini 💐

Any extensions will only be considered if the EU can gain from it.

Agreed, without a concrete strategy that the country will actually at stick to and has a feasible chance of getting through Parliament.

But it does affect the global situation on security, peace in EU and undermines the UN as we get closer to Trump and his views on having the UN. I still think this has been a coup from the start.

I'm quite nervous myself but I've been trying to spread a positive message around me, trying to make a difference at my tiny level. Here's a list of positives I've shared on another thread; whenever I discuss brexit, here's what I tell people (again and again):

Imagine a world where the UK is a financial powerhouse, leading provider in service industries, where it's a leader in sciences and research, one of the most attractive places on earth to invest and create jobs, where unemployment is low. Imagine this whilst keeping our own currency. Imagine lasting peace in Ireland. Imagine goods traveling ceaselessly and without friction from the UK to Europe and back, boosting our economy and industries and giving consumers access to all supplies we need in a matter of hours. Imagine a world where you can travel hassle free from the UK to the rest of Europe, work and study without cumbersome restrictions. Where holidaying and phoning around 27 other countries is easy as staying at home and just as cheap. Imagine the UK as a major player on the diplomatic scene and a major rule maker in the biggest trading bloc on earth.
Sounds amazing?
Oh yes, that's what we ALREADY HAVE!!!!

Beyond doing that and buying non perishable supplies, I feel completely and utterly powerless.

The HoC needs to realise that it can NOT legislate what the EU does, or over write international law:

• It cannot rule out No Deal, because that is the automatic result if none of the other options are chosen.

All it can do is to specify that in the event of no agreement by a certain date, then No Deal is replaced by Revoke or an application for an extension - if they replace No Deal by the WA, then of course May will just sit tight and let it happen !

• It has no power to extend A50 - it can only order May to request one from the EU.

Also, before specifying what May should do, they need to ask the EU how long an extnstion period they would agree and under what conditions

You have to bear in mind that the whole of Brexit is a UK made disaster and that the EU can't interfere with 'internal' politics. It has a priority to look after it's members and not now to the UK.
There will be an awkward 'double think' in that as the UK is a member now, and if revoked would be a member in future, it means that the EU is acting on both sides at the moment. From 29 March, it will be acting 'against' the UK, or at least and negotiations will be preferable to the EU, that is their job.

If we do have a PV, then the options must be defined.

The problem with the 2016 referendum is that Leave promised very different things to different groups, which are both mutually conflicting and also conflict with EU & WTO rules

It is of course why actually delivering leave would have been horrendously difficult even if we had the most brilliant politicians in our history working on it, instead of the dunce class

This is why straight Remain vs Leave polls can still show such close results:
without leave options being defined, e.g. the WA or No Deal, Leave can include any impossible dream wishes that some voters want

So a repeat in a PV of Remain vs undefined Leave would be irresponsible

Prince Philip been in a car crash ( he was driving) but ok apparently.

If something like a state funeral were to occur between now and doomsday do you think TM could use that as an excuse for an extension?

This is what happens when people have to choose between remain and the actual Leave options, not the fantasy ones:

YouGov Poll

Interviewed over 20,000 people in one of the largest surveys since the 2016 referendum

Remain is now the 1st preference in 600 constituencies

So not just Labour constituencies

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/12/06/mays-brexit-deal-leads-just-two-constituencies-itt_--_

I expect May - like any politician - would always take the opportunity for a face-saving way out
..... or a day to bury bad news

@Charly22
I'm in a similar situation. Also a EU citizen who has British citizenship too but feels out of place and unwanted since Brexit (wonder why...)
It helps me to think that the Leave voters you mention in your post will be the big losers compared to me. I will still have my burgundy passport. They won't. It's clear to see what they will lose, not clear at all what they'll gain.
You're not alone!

The HoC needs to realise that it can NOT legislate what the EU does, or over write international law:

Because it doesn't realise that.

When Parl talks about ruling out no deal what they mean is an agreement that a) no deal should not be allowed to happen and therefore b) to work out what steps Parliament will take to avoid that whether by extension, revoke etc.

The opposition are basically flushing out the Tory position.

Re May's letter to Corbyn

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn
May trolls Corbyn by reminding him of his belief in "dialogue" - the same word he used to defend going to a wreath-laying ceremony for Munich terrorists.