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Brexit

Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 15:17

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

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Charly22 · 17/01/2019 19:39

Thank you Apileofballyhoo

Love your username Grin

Charly22 · 17/01/2019 19:40

Aww thank you hazardswan, that’s very kind.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/01/2019 19:49

Tatiana What legal force does an amendment against No Deal have if it passes ?

No Deal is the automatic default
The govt don't have to openly choose it, or even intend it

I didn't think the Boles amendment replaced No Deal with another option ?

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BigChocFrenzy · 17/01/2019 19:53

Charly 💐
So many reports from E27 expats about British inlaws being oblivious or uncaring about the possible human consequences within their own family Confused

it does make me wonder whether such people lack knowledge / assume a deal will be made / lack empathy in general / dislike the particular E27 citizens their family members have married or partnered

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thecatfromjapan · 17/01/2019 19:58

The Boles amendment has an instruction that minister of crown must ask for extension of a50 if no agreement reached (by a date but I can't remember which).

I'd prefer revoke to replace extend there (and it's more doable, too) - but I think that may come.

TatianaLarina · 17/01/2019 20:02

The Boles amendment forces the government to delay the UK departure from the EU unless a consensus can be found by March.

It replaces No Deal on March 29 with extension, which time will be used to find an alternative to No Deal.

Mistigri · 17/01/2019 20:02

*I'm surprised Sterling and the markets are holding up so well, now we're past mid-Jan:

They presumably don't believe the govt will actually let No Deal happen and / or don't realise the full consequences ?*

I think there are a number of things going on here which will make it difficult for the markets to stop May taking us over the edge. No deal is terrible, and of course the forex markets know that, but it is still (perceived to be) not very likely. It's also a long time in the future (in trading terms). Taking a punt on a no deal in 10 weeks time is a sizeable risk at this point; it's for the high stakes gamblers not the regular currency traders. Most trading has much more pragmatic short-term aims and of course a lot of it is automated. When sterling does move, it won't be a gradual slide, it'll be a short period of high volatility before a near-vertical move in one or other direction (down, probably: I think an A50 extension is already priced in).

Brexit at this point is still a political problem that requires a political solution. By the time the markets start to signal that it's also a serious economic problem it will probably be too late.

(We see this regularly in the sector in which I work: markets which work fine right up to the point when they suddenly don't).

BigChocFrenzy · 17/01/2019 20:04

My problem is that I don't know if the HoC can legally compel a PM to ask for an extension

The HoC can e.g. order the govt to stop UC
but afaik it can't order the PM to take specific actions wrt foreign govts / foreign policy / foreign treaties

and of course, since any of the E27 could veto the extension, it is hardly a failsafe method

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thecatfromjapan · 17/01/2019 20:08

I know they're awful but I am finding the psychology of these 'ordinary' No Deal or Death! Types fascinating.

Not the rich ones - you can see why they want No Deal - but the ones who are going to suffer along with all of us in an actual No Deal.

I'm sure they're not homogenous but I'll bet there are 'family resemblances' and I'll bet they sort into about five groups.

I do hope someone's researching them. I think we'd learn a lot about irrational beliefs and pursuit of counter-intuitive, irrational ends.

They do seem angry, though. It's a default for so many of them.

Wonder what that's all about?

BigChocFrenzy · 17/01/2019 20:08

Ah, thanks, Misti
it sounds like you have a good understanding of market behaviour

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BigChocFrenzy · 17/01/2019 20:13

Richard North explains far better and with more direct knowledge, what I was trying to say:

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87119

"it has been established that its approval is needed to invoke Article 50 in the first place – on the grounds that it affects citizens' rights
- no such proviso applies in reverse.
< because Revoke doesn't cost us any rights >

Thus, the Government would be exercising Crown prerogativee^, over which Parliament has no direct control.

Much the same would apply to seeking an extension of the Article 50 period.

But, in any event, the Government could easily sabotage any forced application by making it known through back channels that it was not desirous of a positive outcome.
It would only take one of the 27 EU Member States to exercise its veto and the matter would go no further. "

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BigChocFrenzy · 17/01/2019 20:16

he also quotes the Times:

"We know about the lies and deliberate half-truths of the Brexit campaign
but even now many MPs are chillingly indifferent to basic facts"
– right down to Liz Truss, chief secretary to the Treasury, claiming that "being in the single market means being in the EU".

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ReggieKrayDoYouKnowMyName · 17/01/2019 20:17

Place marking to learn stuff as I’m quickly becoming baffled and there seem to be lots of clever people here to help!

SwedishEdith · 17/01/2019 20:18

(((Dan Hodges)))
‏*@DPJHodges*
Lot of talk about Brexit Unicorns. The idea we can stay in the EU or a Customs Union, and Europe will change its stance on free-movement, is the Remainer Unicorn.

Erm. HmmConfused

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 20:22

ReggieKrayDoYouKnowMyName
Welcome, but you had better get in quick as it is not far off new thread time, probably handily having Westminsterenders in the title!

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 20:23

Didn't I see something earlier today that the EU will not allow an extension beyond the date when their elections start?

Ta1kinPeace · 17/01/2019 20:24

Ladies and Gentlemen
I bring you
BREXIT IN PIDGIN
www.bbc.com/pidgin/world-46876018?fbclid=IwAR300hWGwahWtSnyn94_z3nZPJ8jeHSDiSmmW6oj2DfzEwa1OCX4k25LT8E

Makes a darned sight more sense than it does in English

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 20:25

Also interesting analysin on the Guardian website about why Mrs Merkel is unlikely to give any more room. Basically there is more possible poo than Brexit surrounding Germany.

TatianaLarina · 17/01/2019 20:26

Richard North is no specialist in public law, he’s not even a lawyer. Afair he’s a specialist in food poisoning and being in denial over his criticisms of Brexit.

SalrycLuxx · 17/01/2019 20:28

Lot of talk about Brexit Unicorns. The idea we can stay in the EU or a Customs Union, and Europe will change its stance on free-movement, is the Remainer Unicorn

Huh? Remainers don’t want an end to free movement. Why would we need a unicorn (of any kind)?

Hazardswan · 17/01/2019 20:33

Remain want to end FOM?

Right. Total sense that. Hey remainers lets compromise and declare we don't want to end FOM or leave the EU for that matter so let's give the leavers what they want and remain.

SwedishEdith · 17/01/2019 20:34

Wonder what that's all about?

Resentment. At everything - disabled parking spaces, building regulations, difference etc. Thankfully, I don't have any on FB but I don't have many Leavers on there. Almost wish I did so I could make fun of them. One of the few I did have has since moved to Ireland. Hmm

Quietrebel · 17/01/2019 20:35

We don't need a unicorn, we already have the best possible deal. We should be fighting to keep it.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/01/2019 20:38

Tatiana but I can find no legal references that contradict what he says

  • it is what my own researches have produced about what legal & constitutional bods say.

I'm sure Remain-supporting lawyers - Jo Maugham etc - would have defined - and shouted to the heavens - the precise actions MPs needed to take,
if it were possible for the HoC to legally force the executive to either Revoke or Extend.

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Quietrebel · 17/01/2019 20:39

On Saturday, the UK turns Remain:

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/17/saturday-uk-remain-parliament-force-second-referendum

So, what was that again about the will of the people?

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