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Brexit

Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 15:17

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

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prettybird · 16/01/2019 16:48

This is the Labour Party conference motion in full

labourlist.org/2018/09/labours-brexit-composite-motion-in-full/

The two key paragraphs are

Should Parliament vote down a Tory Brexit deal or the talks end in no-deal, Conference believes this would constitute a loss of confidence in the Government. In these circumstances, the best outcome for the country is an immediate General Election that can sweep the Tories from power.

If we cannot get a general election Labour must support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote. If the Government is confident in negotiating a deal that working people, our economy and communities will benefit from they should not be afraid to put that deal to the public.

Hazardswan · 16/01/2019 16:49

May seems to isolate herself she wouldn't let the brexit negotiator negociate she did it herself. She should have sought cross party whingy mp support or even their thoughts on what brexit should look like. She's batting alone doing all the work because she chose to.

Motheroffourdragons · 16/01/2019 16:54

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feministfairy · 16/01/2019 16:55

Another great thread. As someone said - it's all just an omnishambles Sad

MissMalice · 16/01/2019 16:55

If a GE fails how can JC pursue a PV? I thought his motions couldn’t be debated unless the govt made time for them?

prettybird · 16/01/2019 16:59

iirc, there is limited time available for opposition debates - it's just that in normal circumstances, they normally automatically fail.

I think that was why the SNP were so pissed off at Corbyn before Christmas for not calling the VNC then, which, as the Leader supposedly of the Opposition, he had the right to do, as the SNP's next opportunity to raise a motion was in the New Year.

But it's only a vague recollection.

Loletta · 16/01/2019 16:59

From Robert Peston:

"What can we expect from the prime minister's decision to speak with senior parliamentarians to gauge the kind of Brexit deal, if any, that might get through the Commons?

I have been talking with members of the cabinet and those close to her – and they are divided on whether this is a genuine attempt to find a workable consensus or simply more Micawberish delay in the hope that unknown events will bail her and her government out.

First things first.

In the motion the PM will lay before the House probably on Monday, as she is obliged to do under the Grieve Amendment, don't hold your breath for a sharply delineated set of proposals to put back to the EU for negotiation.

Instead, according to a senior member of the government close to May, there will be more on the process of getting to that set of proposals. It will be a general statement about the direction of travel.

The point is, according to that ally of the PM, there are two huge aspects of her plan that need to change, one that is "easy to describe but incredibly hard to execute", according to the ally, and the other which "may turn out to be easier to do but is incredibly hard to describe".

The easy-to-describe change to the deal would be to put a time limit on the backstop, to placate Northern Ireland's DUP. The problem is that "it is by no means clear the EU will agree to that", says a minister. And my EU sources concur.

The perhaps easier to negotiate change would be to narrow the focus of the political declaration to give MPs more comfort about the nature of the UK's new long term trading relationship with the EU.

The problem is that the only version of that relationship that a clear majority of MPs would accept is the one described today in the Commons by the father of the House, the Tory MP Ken Clarke - who said it would involve permanent membership of the customs union and permanent alignment of the majority of business standards and regulations with those of the EU.

This would probably sway sufficient numbers of Labour MPs and even perhaps the leadership of the Labour Party to see the deal pass through the Commons. And there is evidence that leaders of the EU27 nations would acquiesce in it.

The problem is that well over 100 Tory MPs would detest that deal, which they would see as turning the UK into a vassal state forever. And at least 50 of those MPs would probably resign from the Tory party if it became official policy.

Oh, and by the way it would involve the PM sacrificing several of her precious red lines - and as I understand it she has made clear in private conversations even yesterday that she is still reluctant to do that.

So in practice, however much the PM has entered into this phase of negotiating with senior parliamentarians to find a compromise in good faith, it is very difficult to see this approach achieving any substantive progress towards a deal that could be approved by her and by the EU.

Because at some point she will have to choose between the only deal that may be negotiable and splitting her party. And I have met no MP who sees her as Robert Peel prepared to see the break up of the Conservative Party for what she sees as the national interest.

This impasse will become painfully clear, perhaps as soon as next week, but perhaps not till the middle of February - because that is when backbenchers' initiatives to seize control of the Brexit process will reach their apotheosis (right now that looks like taking the form of MPs supporting Boles's law, which would see parliament forcing the government to request a nine month delay to the UK leaving the EU).

At that belated moment of truth, as I said last night, the PM is likely to face the ineluctable choice between becoming the lame-duck servant of a parliament that doesn't really know what it wants, supporting a no-deal Brexit, which would see a third of her cabinet resigning, and a referendum that could yield no Brexit at all.

Putting a probability weighting on which of those will transpire is an idiot's game.

There is an alternative, put to me by one of the sharper-minded members of her party. Even though ti looks as though Labour does not have the numbers to force an election, with the Tories still ahead in the polls she may end up deciding a general election is preferable to what she sees as the Hobson's choice of no deal, no Brexit or a parliamentary coup against her

There is just one humungous flaw in this argument.

Theresa May would have to lead the Tories in the election campaign, in spite of her promise never to do that again. And we know how that turned out in 2017."

It enrages me to read that TM is still pursuing the same strategy! Get the EU to time limit the backstop and/or think she can lure more support by dangling the carrot of a future free trade deal. So yesterday's defeat hasn't changed anything?? FFS

AutumnCrow · 16/01/2019 16:59

I see the sixth form debating team aka Chris Phil (Con, S Croydon) is supporting May.

QueenieIsLost · 16/01/2019 17:03

PMK

Butterymuffin · 16/01/2019 17:06

The EU are not going to agree to time limit the backstop. My cat knows that. Why hasn't May worked it out yet?

Nomad13 · 16/01/2019 17:07

PMK. I am speechless at the ridiculousness of it all.

Motheroffourdragons · 16/01/2019 17:07

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Mistigri · 16/01/2019 17:11

My cat knows that.

You and your cat know that but at a rough estimate there are still at least 15 million people who don't.

Plus, it doesn't seem to matter any more if ministers lie as long as they are patriotic enough about it.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 17:15

The basic WA would NOT be renegotiated, because it deals mainly with the housekeeping for leaving
which means settling past & ongoing responsibilities,
i.e. the backstop, expat rights, exit bill

The backstop and bill can NOT renegotiated, but that the EU would be happy to mutually increase expat rights, if the UK agrees.

What could be renegotiated is the PD (political Declaration) which lays out the framework for the future relationship after Brexit.

Since neither the RoI nor the other 26 members trust us any more, there would still be a backstop there too.
However, if the clear aim is an SM+Customs arrangement 3rd EEA pillar - which would safeguard JIT but require FOM & ECJ - then clearly the backstop becomes irrelevant

  • unless a future govt walks away before Ireland is reunited

If the UK wants an even closer relationship, then financial passporting could also be included - in return for even closer ECJ ties

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DGRossetti · 16/01/2019 17:17

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary thoughts ...

A lot of the problems would go away, if Irish Reunification were a real possibility ... even more so if NI and Scotland could join the RoI in a Gaelic caucus ....

As a voter in England, I'd have no say in it,. naturally ....

Tonsilss · 16/01/2019 17:17

.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 17:18

If the Tories keep demanding the backstop be time-limited, i.e. not a backstop,
then they are just running out ime until automatic No Deal.

The EU might still extend, because now they judge No Deal is the most likely outcome, they'll want more time to prep

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SingingBabooshkaBadly · 16/01/2019 17:19

Oh good, I’ve found you all!

Just listened to Eddie Mair on LBC asking Victoria Atkins to name one occasion when TM has compromised. Lots of bluster and waffle. ‘Just one example’ he asks again. More waffle ‘Just one’ he says again...

1tisILeClerc · 16/01/2019 17:20

Just been listening to the debate on SKY.
I am glad that there is a couple of years to go before we trigger A50 so that it is 4 years before we might leave, because only now do any of them seem to be starting to be clued up about what might happen,
Having heard most of Corbyn and all of May's speeches, both were so lacklustre for this point in the game. BOTH were talking about things they will consider and think about in the future. May prattled along with the same bollocks but managed a couple of reasonable put downs but CRUCIALLY no appreciation that UK industry is fucked so many of her promises can't happen.
Yes I know leaving is not 4 years but 2 1/2 months, but they are all so far behind the curve it is untrue.

LASH38 · 16/01/2019 17:25

Long time lurker, read religiously (though can barely keep up in last 24hrs!) and am very grateful to you all.

This just dropped into my inbox from WizzAir, I don’t even currently have flights booked with them it’s a mass mail shot. . Thought you might be interested, Brexit has become very real:

The rules for travel to most countries in Europe will change if the UK leaves the European Union (EU) with no deal. The government has increased planning for a no deal EU Exit and is asking citizens to make sure they are also prepared.

UK passport holders should therefore check their passport to see whether it is valid for travel after 29 March 2019.

In case you don’t have an UK passport, info will follow.

After 29 March 2019:

  1. You should have 6 months left on your UK passport from your date of arrival. This applies to adult and child passports.
  1. If you renewed a passport before it expired, extra months may have been added to your new passport’s expiry date. Any extra months on your passport over 10 years may not count towards the 6 months that should be remaining for travel to most countries in Europe. The new rules will apply to passports issued by the UK, Gibraltar, Guernsey, the Isle of Man and Jersey. Further information related to other nationality passports is not yet available. Please check your country specific travel document requirements.

Currently, UK passport holders can travel to all EU countries as long as they have enough remaining validity to cover the length of their stay, so it’s important to be aware of the above changes in a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

So, please check your passport and if you are affected, you should consider renewing your passport earlier than planned.

AutumnCrow · 16/01/2019 17:26

Bloody hell, wee Mhairi Black takes nae prisoners.

nomad5 · 16/01/2019 17:27

Thanks for the new thread. Longtime lurker. UK citizen living in EU27 and shaking head in disbelief.

I just realised today that TM is like Catherine Tate's Lauren.

"Am I bovvered? Am I bovvered though. People's Vote, international laughing stock, shit deal. I ain't doing nothing cause I ain't bothered."

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 16/01/2019 17:27

Just been reading about JRM hosting a celebratory champagne reception for thirty Brexiteers after the vote last night. It’s made me feel physically sick.

LASH38 · 16/01/2019 17:27

To add, it was entitled ‘Brexit notice for UK passport holders’

I noticed a mumsnet thread yest with someone asking about early passport renewal due to a upcoming hol.

Many posts inc the OP stated that they hadn’t even considered Brexit in deciding whether or not to renew!

Inniu · 16/01/2019 17:31

On the hanging off a cliff analogy the issue is of course that most people who fall off cliffs don’t survive to climb back up. The UK in its current form is less than 100 years old.

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