People’s Vote Delusion

[PersonaNonGarter]

It isn’t going to happen. For the following reasons:

1. May Government won’t vote for a second referendum
2. No new post-May Tory Government will vote for a second referendum
3. Jeremy Corbyn and those in the Labour Party front benches won’t vote for a second referendum
4. There is no agreement about what the referendum would ask.
5. There is no plausible timetable for a referendum.

Why would Corbyn want a second referendum? He is a Leaver wanting to win in Leave seats. And he wants to implement his domestic agenda, not waste any further time on Brexit votes. The current situation SUITS him.

You forgot to balance your post with the reasoning for:

• it is one way to democratically annul the 2016 referendum result and cancel Brexit
• given the failure of the government to even look like they might be able to deliver on the promises of the 2016 referendum, more and more people want to reverse Brexit
• all of the individuals/groups you mention will feel obliged to reflect this change
• labour has not ruled out 2nd ref with remain in the ballot

Agree 2nd ref less than 50% probable currently. But considerably more likely than a month ago and rising daily.

Why wouldn’t you want to review/confirm 2016 result? Are you happy with progress and direction of Brexit negotiations to date?

None of your balance addresses the five points in the OP.

It doesn’t give a reason for JC and Labour front bench to change its mind.

I can’t see where ‘obligation’ to ‘reflect change’ is coming from. Nor it’s incentive for any of the actors with control.

One thing that came across loud from the party conferences is how desperate both parties were to get off Brexit and onto the domestic agenda. There is less political appetite for more Brexit (layers of referendums etc) than finishing it.

I agree that a 3rd referendum of remain vs leave is unlikely and always has been.

However a vote in the deal is becoming more likely. I don't think it's a good thing as it won't solve the fact that the country is still divided- more than ever IMO.

The only thing that can break the gridlock is no deal. I think some people need to experience the reality of being "a third country" in order to understand EU membership.... this includes politicians. Let the shit hit the fan I say.

I personally don't see a second vote happening despite the fantastic march . But I also see BeLeavers failing to own this shit show and blaming the many negative consequences of Brexit on anyone but themselves such as :
a) people who voted Remain
b) the EU (see also a))
c) Theresa May (see also a))
d) David Cameron (see also a))

But whether you believe that Brexit will be trading heaven or food shortage hell, there doesn’t seem to be any route to a second vote.

And even if there were a second vote, the division will perpetuate rather than be dealt with. Most of the people on the people’s vote march want to Remain, the vote is just a means to get there. But there are strong feelings on both sides and a vote is perpetuation not conclusion.

ha! There is no conclusion. That's the first over-riding delusion. Brexit will still be happening to us for many years to come. I could see the fall-out legacy still cropping up in every foreign and trade policy decision UK makes until I die (good 30 years+ from now).

Do agree that another Referendum won't happen.

I don't think a 2nd vote will happen.

I do think that leaving the EU is a retrogressive move and the 'beliefs' of Leavers are actively harmful to the UK.

I agree a second ref won't happen. It lacks credibility and authenticity as another will almost certainly be demanded by either side causing a endless cycle of referendums. It would also demoralise and damage the structures of democracy perhaps beyond all repair. Society would no longer trust any kind of establishment/government, vote or referendum.

Those seeking a second ref should do so in ten-fifteen years, their case would be much more powerful then.

A Canda plus agreement with the EU should be in place so that the country can move on in some capacity.

"A Canda plus agreement with the EU should be in place so that the country can move on in some capacity."
N Ireland all sorted? Give us a clue. How do we fix that one?

You are right about division, @PersonaNonGarter . My soft hearted dh has come to the"fuck 'em" conclusion about people who voted Leave and will suffer post Brexit.

I'm not deluded, just sad. I'm resigned to Brexit happening but still waiting for any grain of confidence from either the Conservative or Labour Party that it won't be a bag of shit with a helping of NI bloodshed on the side. Everyone's seeing what they can gain politically rather than producing any positive outcomes. I'd be delighted if you could prove me wrong.

given the failure of the government to even look like they might be able to deliver on the promises of the 2016 referendum, more and more people want to reverse Brexit

Proof of this more and more point?

bellinisurge With a Canada deal there will be no need of a hard border, as the legal regulations (aligned to the EU will remain the same). There will be the same checks that currently happen now anyway. No need for a hard border, it is one of the reasons I support this deal.

"bellinisurge With a Canada deal there will be no need of a hard border, as the legal regulations (aligned to the EU will remain the same). There will be the same checks that currently happen now anyway. No need for a hard border, it is one of the reasons I support this deal."

This is utterly, utterly wrong . It is beyond me how such ignorance persists.

I don't see an obvious route to a second referendum either. But if May can not force whatever deal she manages to cobble together through parliament, or if she does not manage to reach a deal, then there will be a crisis that will result in something happening.

My soft hearted dh has come to the"fuck 'em" conclusion about people who voted Leave and will suffer post Brexit.

That is a shame, and part of the problem going forward.

A lot of voters thought the arguments were finely balanced. Now there is a lack of empathy, or attribution of stupidity or moral failing based on how they decided. I don’t see a people’s vote doing anything but deepening division.

i don’t want a second referendum. I want the people in power to do their job. They need to look at what’s on offer, see that it’s unworkable and bad for the country and call the whole thing off. That’s what our leaders are supposed to do, not go marching blindly forward no matter what and to hell with the consequences. The first referendum is advisory if it’s unworkable we don’t have to leave.

Maybe it would deepen division but leaving and it all going to shit will do that anyway.

All, we still have a chance to save ourselves from the worst of the Brexit damage (JIT manufacturing, pharma, much finance, etc still in UK). 700,000+ marched in London at weekend for this outcome. Giving up is a disservice to those people who got up off their behinds to voice their objections to a poorer, more isolated and powerless future for UK DC.

2nd ref is the one route which allows politicians (both blue and red) to appear to support both sides so is a useful mechanism to appeal to remainers and reasonable/wavering leavers. It can even appeal to more adamant leavers that want to avoid endless transition. OP, this is why it I think 2nd ref is increasingly appealing to groups 1,2 & 3 in your post. 4 can be resolved and EU will likely extend A50 for 2nd referendum or general election.

@PersonaNonGarter - it's not for me to tidy up the mess made by other people.

This super-Canada deal would mean:

• zero tariffs and zero quotas on all imports and exports

• mutual recognition agreements covering UK and EU regulations to ensure “conformity of goods with each other’s standards”

• technological solutions to keep supply chains operating smoothly

• a deal covering goods as well as services.

This has been agreed already with Tusk and the EU Misti
It is not utterly utterly wrong, because it already exists.

At the end of the day the Republic of Ireland is a separate country already to Northern Ireland! The two are entirely separate, to move the discussion on we need to acknowledge that they are different countries and compromise and maturity will be required.

It was a decision made by the people of Northern Ireland that they will remain part of the UK, it is respected on both sides. Ireland is not a big country, it is conceivable to have a soft border and to respect the Good Friday Agreement, and to adhere to a Canada Style Plus deal.

"it is conceivable to have a soft border and to respect the Good Friday Agreement, and to adhere to a Canada Style Plus deal."
And yet that isn't happening. Maybe because it is harder than you think.

My soft hearted dh has come to the"fuck 'em" conclusion about people who voted Leave and will suffer post Brexit.

I'm the same. They're deluded if they think people are all going to join hands and sing Kumbaya with them. Fuck 'em.

@Ifoundanacorn

And you're still wrong.

If all that were true: why would we need a backstop for the Irish border?

Canada, super or otherwise, would require border checks for conformity with single market regulations. What do you think happens when Canadian goods arrive at a European border? Have you ever heard the words "border inspection post"?

it is conceivable to have a soft border and to respect the Good Friday Agreement, and to adhere to a Canada Style Plus deal.
That’s not what’s on offer though. What’s on offer is NI stays with completely with UK and has a hard border or NI stays in EU customs union different to UK and has soft border. If it was easy to get agreement on what you suggest it would be agreed already.

it's not for me to tidy up the mess made by other people.

Yes, but that and ‘fuck em’ are not very nice attitudes to have to half your fellow community. Obviously, normal service will resume for most people but it is scary how spiteful Remainers have been to Leavers.