People’s Vote Delusion

[PersonaNonGarter]

It isn’t going to happen. For the following reasons:

1. May Government won’t vote for a second referendum
2. No new post-May Tory Government will vote for a second referendum
3. Jeremy Corbyn and those in the Labour Party front benches won’t vote for a second referendum
4. There is no agreement about what the referendum would ask.
5. There is no plausible timetable for a referendum.

Why would Corbyn want a second referendum? He is a Leaver wanting to win in Leave seats. And he wants to implement his domestic agenda, not waste any further time on Brexit votes. The current situation SUITS him.

Gove and the DUP would be happy to tear it up, and then would happily blame everyone else.

I must admit, I do now see a United Ireland being on the cards. I like to remind people that the UK my parents were born into wasn't the same UK that I was born into.

The border between Ireland and NI will be a border between the EU and a sovereign state (UK) so by international rules (WTO or the EU or indeed if it were anywhere else) there must be a border for goods at least. It is of course complicated by the GFA and the desire by most people that there should not be a hard border. Any attempt at renegotiation, which is POSSIBLE would take many years and is far outside the timescale for Brexit, by at least 10 years or more.

If Brexiteers want to prove that the border between the Ireland (and the whole of the EU) and NI is not an issue then they should produce a detailed plan showing how chlorinated chicken and the other unsafe, low quality goods we want to import after Brexit can be prevented from entering the Single Market. Not just wittering about "technology" but actually describing the processses and the machinery involved, where the cameras would be placed etc. They've had two years to do it.

This is from the excellent Tony Connelly:

*Under the EU’s "level playing field" mindset, member states will want to know that goods in the UK are not being produced more cheaply because the UK is not having to comply with the same environmental, consumer, health and social standards that they are.

While the EU will still carry out checks to ensure that goods coming from the UK comply with safety regulations, they cannot carry out checks to see if goods were made according to "level playing field" standards.*

www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/1027/1006996-brexit-negotiation-teams/

Personally I think EU Leaders generally should have spoken out much more about this - many people in UK don't really know why these negotiations are proving so difficult. It would have been good if rather than saying "we must protect the integrity of the Single Market" the phrase could have been something like " we will protect ourselves from the effects of UK trying to make a living by turning itself into a shithole and starting a race to the bottom" it might have made things clearer.

@threetrees are the WTO a load of big meanies now? I can't keep up as the Brexit snowflake melts.

the WTO aren't actually an anybody

Ackshully, I think you'll find that despite not being anybody, they have lots of mean old rules you have abide by. And as we've already seen, another WTO member can really screw things up for you by objecting to your cunning trade plans. Forget Russia, we've pissed NZ off.

oh dear, my boots are quaking!

No point arguing with threetrees. They have already been told all of the above on this thread and they didn't listen then either.

'told'? - what you actually mean is that on that thread, all the same old Remainer scare stories were pedalled out and dismissed, yet again

Thanks @Childrenofthesun . Sounds like @threetrees can't conceive of there being any problems. At least in online posts. Let's hope in real life they are thinking about adding a bit to their food cupboard.

bellinisurge

Some of the pro-Brexit stuff is from paid activists with the intention of making it so wearisome to argue rationally, that we all give up, some is from people who genuinely believe in it and try to come up with solutions (see Richard North's blog for one example of this) and some is from people who like making themselves victims. This is a recognisable subtype which roughly goes "I will make no attempt to research facts, I will present an argument which a moment's thought would show me is illogical and when this is pointed out to me (politely or otherwise) I will yell "See, why do you Remoaners always insult us and call us thick?"

cool story bro!

HPFA - first of all no one in the Gov. says they are going to reduce standards or take anything like chlorinated chicken in fact the gov. has stated that all standards of production will stay the same and I some cases may actually increase. Only 4 % of all non EU goods coming into the EU are checked at the port. So that's goods from places with far lower standards than us. So there is a president for using electronic and pre checked systems in any case.

I don't know any Leavers thinking of themselves as 'victims'. Anyone who has been on these threads for as long as me know that leavers rarely proffer any views because Bearbehind will come down on you like a ton of bricks if you can't support your suggestion with facts. But of course we all know that leaving the EU is a new thing and no one of the UK's stature has ever done it before so there are no proven ways of doing it so very few facts to quote.
Some on this thread have been very good at having an intelligent, measured discussion which was refreshing. But rarely happens so I am rarely on these threads nowadays.

True, HPFA.

On that note, did anyone else see that responsibility for tracking far right terrorists in the UK has now switched to MI5 from policing? Shows that, for all the rah-rah-Brexit rhetoric, the security services are taking the threats from the British far right very seriously now.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6326933/MI5-agents-used-tackle-terror-threat-far-Right-extremists-time.html

What's true Pineapple?

Doubletrouble99

Any FTA with the USA (which the Hard Brexiteers) seem to regard as the ultimate prize will involve a lowering of food standards. And the people advocating for Hard Brexit are exactly the same people who have argued for a lowering of employment rights and environmental standards generally. So I'm afraid I don't trust them as far as I can throw them. And , much more significantly, neither do the EU member states and negotiators.

As to the victim mentality, I've seen it around a fair bit! And I don't think it's good enough to say "there are very few facts to quote". There are almost no economists who believe Hard Brexit will be economically beneficial and even those that do admit it will destroy British manufacturing and entail the removal of virtually all regulation.

I'm happy to accept soft/Norway Brexit as an acceptable compromise between respecting the Referndum result but not imposing economic and social disaster on those who never wanted any of this. Even if every single Leaver wanted the Hard option (and clearly they didn't) it would still be wrong to expect the other half of the country to pay the price of this.

To add to the above, hard Brexiters like Rees-Mogg and Redwood have made sure to move their own financial affairs to other EU countries, despite apparently despising the EU.

first of all no one in the Gov. says they are going to reduce standards or take anything like chlorinated chicken in fact the gov. has stated that all standards of production will stay the same and I some cases may actually increase. Only 4 % of all non EU goods coming into the EU are checked at the port

But there is a border though isn't there? the means to check as the ship is unloaded etc.
It doesn't matter if only 4% of goods are inspected, will work at Dover or Rotterdam but not in NI.

No Minister is going to say "we will drop standards on food and goods" are they? but the reason the EU/USA cannot agree a FTA is on food std's, EU won't drop them..... will we in our eagerness for a FTA?

However i agree we are going into the unknown, as you say a large economy doing what we are doing has never happened before, i wonder why? we ve also got no plan B if this experiment doesn't work....we simply cannot go back to the EU membership which has seen a small country of the coast of Northern Europe go from a sick, polluted, work shy economy of the 70s to the worlds 5th richest economy with world class financial and pharma sectors amongst many others, our standard of living is far and away above what we had pre EEC.

Your experiment is putting all this at risk but hey, its going to happen, even if 5m remainers turned up in London.

it's not a given that Ireland has to have a ref regarding unification GFA etc..

I take it that you have't actually read the GFA or have an understanding of the Irish consitution.

anyway, the GFA can be adjusted if needs be

It can, but not unilaterally.

Who said anything about a 'hard Brexit' HPFA. Who says we are going to follow everything JRM et al says. Very few people would accept the lowering of any standards, why would parliament approve a trade deal like that?

Your experiment is putting all this at risk but hey, its going to happen, even if 5m remainers turned up in London.

All too likely, probably.

It's simply wrong to enforce a maasive experiment on the country with absolutely zero evidence that it will work and no sound rational basis that it could ever work. Of course no-one knows exactly how an experiment will work out but you really need at least some good reason for trying it out.

When there is a way of exiting the EU but without threatening our high standards (by staying in the Single Market) then you have to wonder at the motives of people who are so keen to rule this out as an option. No wonder the EU don't trust us - insisting that we're not going to cut standards but that it's terribly important we have the power to do so must ring alarm bells!!

Anyone who has been on these threads for as long as me know that leavers rarely proffer any views because Bearbehind will come down on you like a ton of bricks if you can't support your suggestion with facts

I'm loving the fact I am single handedly being blamed for Leavers being completely unable to answer any Brexit related questions 😂

Very few people would accept the lowering of any standards,

Then why not just stay in the Single Market then?

If there is no plan to lower standards why is Hard Brexit even under discussion?