Meet the Other Phone. Flexible and made to last.

Meet the Other Phone.
Flexible and made to last.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
70
RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

An interesting reflection on the Labour Party Conference and a prelude to the Conservative Party Conference

Will Tanner @Will_Tanner
1/? A short thread on what the Labour Party conference means for Conservatives, and what Tories should say and do in Birmingham at their own conference this weekend.
2/? Make no mistake. Jeremy Corbyn just articulated a dangerous message that sounds rational, possible and responds to the insecurities of our time. It will unite voters from Battersea to Mansfield: people want more control of capital, companies and communities. Gauntlet laid.
3/? The tone was not dissimilar to Theresa's in 2016, which was popular. But in substance, the policies were worlds apart. Labour is pledging mass unionisation, expropriation of profit and bureaucratic planning of the economy. Aggressive revolution, not constructive reform.
4/? This is a trap for Tories to patronise people about a return to the 1970s. If Tories focus energies there, they'll lose. When Tory MPs and businesses warn that Labour’s plans will hit investment/jobs, most will think “they would say that, wouldn’t they?” Even I think it.
5/? Tories should also resist the urge to redraw old individualism/socialism battlelines. Manning the barricades of liberty won't work with generations that never experienced the winter of discontent. The dangers of socialism are remote; unfairness felt today is immediate.
5/? Far better to champion the benefits of markets in principle while actively softening their edges in practice. People understand that the wealth of products, jobs, opportunities available to them comes from a free market, they just want them to be fair & returns to be shared
6/? Tories should expose Labour's plans for what they are: batsh*t bonkers. Voters may like workers on boards but they do not want unions running companies. No-one sane thinks the wages of an interior designer in Harrogate should be set by collective bargaining in SW1. Seriously.
7/? In parallel, Conservatives desperately need to a bold, positive vision for change. For me, that means a market economy that shares the proceeds of growth, a state that’s strong but not bloated, and a society that values belonging & local pride, as well as freedom & mobility.
8/8 That's where today’s majority lies. To stop Corbyn seizing it will require the Conservative Party to engage - genuinely - with the sources of people’s frustration and to tackle its own vested interests too. But there is a coalition to be built there, if they want it.

OP posts:
colouringinpro · 27/09/2018 23:36

Awesome RTB

IrenetheQuaint · 27/09/2018 23:38

Cheers Wine

mathanxiety · 28/09/2018 04:31

Thanks, RTB/

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 28/09/2018 07:11

Thanks rtb

ClashCityRocker · 28/09/2018 07:14

Place mat King. Thanks red.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/09/2018 07:21

Thanks again, red

If you don't know where you're going, then every road leads to nowhere

lonelyplanetmum · 28/09/2018 07:27

We are all so deeply indebted to you RTB.

When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

And yet many are not paying attention- the Westminster Voting Intention still shows the CONs at 42% (+2). It’s soul destroying.

(Rant alert ...

It makes me want to rant that enough people are not paying attention...

I’m prepared to concede that many Leave voters had genuine concerns about the NHS, fundamental disparities , education and ( misplaced ) concerns about immigration.

Why can’t these voters see now see what they voted for is not what they will ever, ever get from the current cabal?

It is beyond belief that two years in there is no plan approaching even internal consensus. There is nothing-absolutely nothing, that will leave us better off.

Our very politics and economy are being held hostage to a deluded far right, selfish, wealthy who rode to control based on deceits. There is no doubt that dismantling public health care, state education and environmental protection is on their ultimate agenda to the detriment of the vast majority of UK citizens.

It’s the survival of the fittest and yet the least fit are still endorsing the ruthless. The party in charge still has a treacherous internal
chasm and is flailing around for an agreed plan two years in. Why can't people see it.I know the opposition are divided too - so it's Hobson choice let's vote for the bloody LibDems just for five years on this single issue.At least they genuinely value the NHS. Or at least if people said they'd vote for them in a poll. Imagine what would happen if the polls shifted to 42% LibDem.

The government’s own long secret calculations are crystal clear that, under any deal or no deal the country will be immensely worse off by leaving. It. is. Beyond.absurd.

The referendum voters were misled and funded by illegal and self interested influences.It should have been a vote to explore the possibilities of leaving. We have explored them, and the options are worse than shit.

Rant over.)

Mrsr8 · 28/09/2018 07:42

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/09/2018 07:45

HoC Briefing Paper: Brexit unknowns (28 Sept update)

Yes, my 1st instinct is also to say "everything", but it's a useful summary of the issues

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8408/CBP-8408.pdf

lonelyplanetmum · 28/09/2018 07:48

OMG.

Two years in and we get this

"Some of the ‘unknowns’ flagged up in our first Brexit Unknowns briefing paper in November 2016 have now been somewhat or largely clarified, while others are still unknown or largely unknown, or have given rise to further ‘sub-unknowns’. There are now also more ‘known unknowns’ and there are likely to be many other ‘unknown unknowns’."

No words.

MyBrexitGoesOnHoliday · 28/09/2018 07:49

Place mat king

BigChocFrenzy · 28/09/2018 07:57

For those who thought he'd faded gracefully away:

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
MyBrexitGoesOnHoliday · 28/09/2018 07:57

lonely that quote is a bit mind blowing.
They could have said ‘we haven’t a clue’ instead (and we refuse to take any position about it??)

JustAnotherPoster00 · 28/09/2018 07:59

Placing my king mat

RedToothBrush · 28/09/2018 08:06

"Some of the ‘unknowns’ flagged up in our first Brexit Unknowns briefing paper in November 2016 have now been somewhat or largely clarified, while others are still unknown or largely unknown, or have given rise to further ‘sub-unknowns’. There are now also more ‘known unknowns’ and there are likely to be many other ‘unknown unknowns’."

I live in a political parody. Script writers will be cursing they didn't make this one up.

Actually I wonder if the person who wrote that is actually having a right laugh about it, safely in the full knowledge that about 2 MPs will read it and they'll definitely be pro-remainer who think it's a travesty anyway.

OP posts:
lonelyplanetmum · 28/09/2018 08:06

Flippant comment but it's not a coincidence that the presentation of the ( belated ) IEA idea is tail gating Kier Starmer's six tests.

Six is obviously the magic number.

As with anything Boris there is no mention of delivering the exact same benefits (for anyone other than Boris).

WhatWouldScoobyDoo · 28/09/2018 08:08

Thanks Red Flowers

lonelyplanetmum · 28/09/2018 08:09

John Crace's article on the un known unknowns is probably already underway. (I wouldn't know that of course as I sadly don't know him - it's an unknown unknown.)

BigChocFrenzy · 28/09/2018 08:09

red On bad days, I just pretend I'm watching a Yes Prime Minister boxset
and the sick feeling in my stomach is because I didn't notice I'd munched through several bars of Lindt

BigChocFrenzy · 28/09/2018 08:14

Oh and for those who thought that the 3 million and the 1 million were safe after May's statement,
the HoC briefing in chapter 1 lists

"Rights of UK expats and EU citizens in UK ... partially known"

lonelyplanetmum · 28/09/2018 08:20

Thank you for that briefing paper BCF.

"
In Salzburg on 20 September the EU rejected much of the Chequers blueprint, while in a statement on 21 September Theresa May appeared not to understand the EU’s rejection: “Donald Tusk said our proposals would undermine the single market. He didn’t explain how in any detail or make any counter-proposal. So we are at an impasse”.

It is not clear how both sides will progress from here."

My emphasis. The understatement to end all understatements.

Mrsr8 · 28/09/2018 08:27

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

RedToothBrush · 28/09/2018 08:40

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/98633/former-militant-chief-derek-hatton-rejoins-labour
Former Militant chief Derek Hatton 'rejoins Labour' 33 years after being expelled

Jen Williams said every scouser she talked to about this at the Labour Conference was less than impressed.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 28/09/2018 08:41

James Patrick @ j_amesp
If you cross-bred Dr Doolittle’s Pushmepullyou with a unicorn, then inbred the species until one arrived which was made of two rear ends, you would have successfully created Brexit. A shit machine, whichever way you look at it.

OP posts: