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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

OP posts:
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1tisILeClerc · 29/09/2018 09:33

There is an inbuilt problem that one persons 'Patriot' can be seen as another persons 'terrorist'.
If you are fighting for what you see as 'your' country, which are you?
WW2 French (and other occupied countries of course) were fighting for their country but were labelled terrorists.

lonelyplanetmum · 29/09/2018 09:58

But there are lurking leavers reading this thinking :

Epipen shortage - it would have happened anyway.

Minister to meet challenges of food supply-it would have happened anyway.

Pound falling - it would have happened anyway.

Loss of the NHS- it would have happened anyway.

Job losses- it would have happened anyway.
(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTIPx0lI6pb-3Tn-3D6uNJNyKcCd-A8uPMxViagyJAR9T87ZmnSdAEPCzp5ljlNYoUNdxJiJqQdBm7b/pubhtml)

You just can’t gainsay that.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/09/2018 10:06

lonely Leavers would say: It would happen anyway OR the change is good

  1. Less food = less obesity ... WRONG. Heavily processed food is the only food that the govt or supermarkets will have stockpiled

When that runs out, OR if prices rise, more of the very poorest will dies - although maybe the neoliberal right quietly regards that as a side benefit ?

  1. Epipen shortage and shortages of other meds I hate to say this, but again the Social Darwinists want survival of the fittest - and assume that will include them.

Also, many authoritarians regard allergies, especially in children, as "fussiness", so would see this as a great opportunity to force people - poor people of course - to "eat what they are given"

Motheroffourdragons · 29/09/2018 10:09

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This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Motheroffourdragons · 29/09/2018 10:11

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BigChocFrenzy · 29/09/2018 10:12

May really seems the intended Tory scapegoat for Brexit

I note that only 35% of activists think she should quit now;
another 45% want her to quit before the next GE - the one between Brexit and 2022

So the plan is for a new leader to take over and to assume the Uk electorate have their usual fruitfly memory and toddler level of critrical reasoning, hence will then elect him / her

BigChocFrenzy · 29/09/2018 10:18

mother I don't see in the article where it is not a British issue - I have a visual disability though, so may have missed a short ref.

Production shortages may be for Britain only - the pharmaceutical industry have been quietly moving some jobs out of the UK; that may include production, warehousing etc

As I posted, there doesn't seem to be a shortage online, even in the UK.
Is this just a shortage at NHS prices / their usual suppliers ?

My quick check showed no warnings in Germany about shortages of epipens or any other meds in Germany - I don't know about Belgium

BigChocFrenzy · 29/09/2018 10:21

Macron Says He’d Welcome U.K. Back to EU If Voters Change Their Minds

that's in a 2nd ref, but I assume he would accept if a new PM just made that decision without

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-26/macron-says-he-d-welcome-u-k-back-to-eu-if-voters-change-mind

Motheroffourdragons · 29/09/2018 10:24

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Motheroffourdragons · 29/09/2018 10:27

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This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

lonelyplanetmum · 29/09/2018 10:31

May really seems the intended Tory scapegoat for Brexit

It's just classic glass cliff theory. If you compare running the U.K. to running a huge corporation. It's well established that boards of directors are more likely to appoint minorities or women to companies that are flailing.

When the woman comes to the struggling organisation, their term typically is shorter. The female leader is then typically replaced by a white male- the saviour effect.

RedToothBrush · 29/09/2018 10:36

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
Times / YouGov

Voters don’t think anyone else could do a better brexit deal than Theresa May

They aren’t that happy .... but don’t see the wisdom of changing leader

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9d39fe32-c35e-11e8-b39e-4a881a3e11ca

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 29/09/2018 10:43

David Davies: "There is nobody like us, in truth, nobody has the upside we have, the upside of the rest of the world."

The delusion of British exceptionalism in our ruling class - which is driving Brexit to no deal:

https://www.politico.eu/article/david-davis-angela-merkel-and-emmanuel-macron-dont-want-uk-to-succeed-on-brexit/

BigChocFrenzy · 29/09/2018 10:45

Maybe Westministenders in other countries can say if they have shortages.
Not in Germany, anyway
If it's the US, @math ?

SmallAndFarAway · 29/09/2018 10:48

This 'ramping up' of military personnel in NI may not go down well with certain groups, and as such may inflame the currently very delicate situation.

Yep.

As Stephen Pound explained eloquently earlier in the week:

Speaking to Channel 4 News, the Shadow Minister for Northern Ireland said at the Labour party conference that the border issue was “life and death to the people of Ireland”.

“If you look at the border, 302 miles long, if you think that a camera up a pole can actually provide a border security alert – that will become a target.

If you have a target, you have to defend the target. If you have a defender, you have to have someone to actually protect the defender. Before you know where you are, you’ve got uniformed UK [Border Agency] or customs officers on the border.

If you do that – and I’m not being hysterical about this – then the peace process is finished, the minute you have uniformed troops on that border. If the peace process is finished, then peace on the island of Ireland is under huge threat."

I don't think placing the target in the sea is much better.

Funny how these considerations don't matter so much in Islington, eh Boris? you ignorant fucker

BigChocFrenzy · 29/09/2018 11:01

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45676633
Peter Tsouvallaris, the Unite union convenor at the [Toyota] plant, has been working there for 24 years, and says his members are increasingly concerned:

"What we have here are high-value, well-paid jobs.

"And in my experience once these jobs go they never come back.
And that's why we have to do everything possible to keep these jobs in the area."

prettybird · 29/09/2018 11:20

After Trump made his attack on the Chinese but not the Russians Confused for interfering in US politics and trying to influence the mid-terms when he was at the UN, I listened to an expert commentator on the news (can't remember if it was Sky or BBC - think it was Sky) about the likelihood of this

He said that there were only 3 countries in the world involved in cyber-election manipulation: Russia (overtly); China (more subtly); and Iran (but only in a regional capacity with its surrounding countries).

Interesting that he doesn't mention the US role in influencing and attempting to influence Brexit and elections in the EU, supporting both the hard Brexiters' objectives and the far right.

Is it because it is billionaires and corporations (Koch brothers, Mercer, Murdoch, Bannon & Breitbart, Cambridge Analytica, the dark money supporting the DUP......) and not technically (1) state sponsored that it doesn't count? ConfusedHmm

(1) Still to be estaishef whether Trump was/is involved especially as Bannon used to work for him and as such, it could be argued that it was/is indeed state sponsored as he as he likes to remind us is POTUS Hmm The buck stops with him.

prettybird · 29/09/2018 11:21

That was supposed to include my Place Mat King Grin

🐟🎣👑

lonelyplanetmum · 29/09/2018 11:41

Still to be established whether Trump was/is involved

It doesn't matter whether Trump was directly involved. The dark money interference created a climate where Trump could flourish.

The intervention of billionaires and corporations (Koch brothers, Mercer, Murdoch, Bannon & Breitbart, Cambridge Analytica, and now the same influences supporting the DUP and the IEA here) was so persistent and insidious. A long term campaign to get students on board -going into universities with talks and food to influence young lawyers and politicians with their agenda and spread the right wing libertarian way of thinking from the roots upwards.

It worked in the US but I naively and mistakenly thought it couldn't happen here but that is what we are seeing now...

woman11017 · 29/09/2018 11:53

Thread relevant to
US groups raise millions to support rightwing UK thinktanks
story:
@DelvingHaylee
First stop:
their close relationship with Hoey, the Gatestone Institute John Bolton and different think tanks (including Mercer's funded/closely linked to the IEA Heritage Foundation/Cato Institute) discussing the benefits of Brexit for the United States
twitter.com/DelvingHaylee/status/1040573318741549056

MyBrexitGoesOnHoliday · 29/09/2018 12:01

When the woman comes to the struggling organisation, their term typically is shorter. The female leader is then typically replaced by a white male- the saviour effect.
It’s also well known that often those women actually succeed where men wouod have failed though.
Men seem to come back when it lo safety do so.

prettybird · 29/09/2018 12:06

Thanks for picking up my typo lonelyplanetmum Blush - but you knew what I meant Grin

I agree that it is still unacceptable, whether it not Trump was/is involved and I am sure he was . Indeed, I would say it is more unacceptable that it is dark money and faceless/unaccountable billionaires and corporations. SadAngry

1tisILeClerc · 29/09/2018 12:08

{I hate to say this, but again the Social Darwinists want survival of the fittest - and assume that will include them.

Also, many authoritarians regard allergies, especially in children, as "fussiness", so would see this as a great opportunity to force people - poor people of course - to "eat what they are given"}
I think it was a BBC website yesterday or day before where they were talking about mothers with babies that have significant disabilities killing them. Kenya was the focus of that report. I also commented that for many parts of the world 'allergies' are a luxury. If you live in a part of the world where other foods are not available the choice is suffer from what allergies do to you, or die of starvation. It is horrible and Brutal but for too many simply part of death.

Mrsr8 · 29/09/2018 12:11

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

1tisILeClerc · 29/09/2018 12:36

{“The second reason is a very, very narrow French one of trying, as it were, to raid our economy to get businesses to go to France.”}
(From David Davis's 'rant' at France and Germany wanting the UK to 'suffer'.)
Any 'grown up' would understand that if you want to stay in the game you would have stayed in the EU and 'fought your corner' rather than whinging and crying to mummy. He obviously doesn't understand the MASSIVE own goal he (by failing to negotiate for 18 months ) and the rest of the UK government have given to all the other EU countries by DEMANDING that the UK drops out of CU and SM, the main mechanism for fairness across the EU.
I am an idiot but even I can see the outright stupidity of the UK action, and now to 'blame' the EU for it is beyond belief.