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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

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mathanxiety · 04/10/2018 19:49

10degreestostarboard Tue 02-Oct-18 15:15:20

Nope - our mistake was in sending everyone to university when not all are suited. All we have done is devalued the degree qualification and passed on debt

Which is why those like mother of dragon moaning is mildly irritating. Her children are at good universities and with good onwards prospects. Why shouldn’t they contribute to that?

The real con trick is on the ba(hons) courses in community services at a rubbish former poly.

I agree that some subjects could be put in the category of 'Mickey Mouse degrees', and I believe that polytechnics should have remained technical education-focused, maybe as in the Regional Techs/Institutes of Technology in Ireland, with degrees developing over time and in sync with developing demands in industry and tech trends. Calling every third level institution a university was a cultural mistake. It pandered to snobbery.

These questions are completely separate from the idea that anyone should pay for a third level education of exceptional quality. There is no reason why this should be so, as it shits the door on talented individuals who cannot afford such an education. American universities can offer exceptional education to exceptional students regardless of ability to pay. The absolute best offer some financial assistance even to families with an annual income on paper of $150,000. The state university system of New York offers free third level.

Universities, especially those with strong tech/engineering faculties, are extremely important drivers of economic growth.

The debt question is nothing short of a massive fraud.

mathanxiety · 04/10/2018 20:12

The trouble is, we only need a very finite number of experts in ancient Norse lesbian myths.

The problem in the UK is that someone with a degree in ANLM has probably dropped maths and science subjects at age 16, has probably not done calculus or statistics or subjects requiring abstract reasoning since their mid teens, whereas a graduate with a similar major in the US has done all of that and maybe a good deal more for half of their university career.

DD1 for instance did a broad range of subjects through high school and was required to do the same in her first two years of university. Her transcript included Calc III, physics, biology, chemistry, philosophy, Persian, fine art, linguistics, various stats courses, various English lit courses, and courses in her major. While her degree is in Economics, she could have gone on to medical school, veterinary, pharmacy or law school. Her best friend is now doing her residency in oncology and has a BA in Chinese. She is not a native speaker.

I have a former BIL whose degree is in Philosophy, again from a highly regarded American university and again with a lot of maths and science coursework under his belt. He has been raking in a comfortable salary in software development since the mid 1980s.

Early dropping of subjects, and the resulting maths/humanities divide is a huge problem in the UK.

BackInTime · 04/10/2018 20:29

Early dropping of subjects, and the resulting maths/humanities divide is a huge problem in the UK.

Completely agree with this. It seems that in the UK we narrow education choices far too young.

mathanxiety · 04/10/2018 20:34

Wrt the GFA, a quote of Arlene Foster from the Belfast Telegraph, supplied upthread by SusanWalker.

“It has been deeply frustrating to hear people who voted remain and in Europe talk about Northern Ireland as though we can’t touch the Belfast Agreement. Things evolve, even in the EU context," Mrs Foster said.

“There has been a lot of misinterpretation, holding it up as a sacrosanct piece of legislation.”

It's not a piece of legislation of course.

It's an international treaty. This is why honest democratic politicians are careful about it.

The DUP are showing their real intent here. They correctly saw that Brexit would destroy the GFA and are pushing hard to ensure this ultimate aim of theirs will come to pass. The wishes of the majority of the electorate in NI regarding both Brexit and the GFA count for nothing in their eyes.

They are betting on the weakness of TM and her vulnerability in any election. Also on her cowardice and the long history of the Tories putting party advantage over all other considerations.

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/trimble-warns-arlene-foster-changing-belfast-agreement-would-be-huge-mistake-for-unionists-37383015.html
A warning from David Trimble and Reg Empey (United Unionist Party) that an attack on the GFA would be a dangerous and foolish initiative.
www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/trimble-warns-arlene-foster-changing-belfast-agreement-would-be-huge-mistake-for-unionists-37383015.html
In response, Lord Trimble hit out at the DUP.

"Part of the reason why we don't have a functioning administration in Northern Ireland is because the DUP have abused the processes laid down under the Agreement," he said.

"The Good Friday Agreement has not outlived its purpose, what has happened is that it has been abused by the participants, and I think it would be a good thing for people to think of ways of ensuring that those abuses don't continue. That wouldn't be a major change to the agreement, it would be adjusting procedures or practises to repair the damage done after the last year and a half.

"I'm not happy with the way things have developed or how the agreement has been abused.

"There are some areas, such as the petition of concern, which could be used in a better way.

"It's not time for a major overhaul of the terms of the agreement - that would be very dangerous and foolish.

"Saying you want to reopen issues would be a huge mistake, particularly from a unionist point of view. It was such a good thing for unionism, a very good agreement.

"In all the days of the Troubles the best deal on constitutional matters ever offered to unionism was the Good Friday Agreement."

Lord Trimble also urged against changing the accord "at the drop of a hat".

"It's not a matter of saying we should abolish it," he stated. "It's 'can you be sure that it can be used in the spirit that was intended at the time of its making?'

"The Good Friday Agreement is as important and relevant now as it was 20 years ago.

"It's a basic constitution for Northern Ireland, and you don't change a constitution at the drop of a hat."

Meanwhile, Lord Empey accused Mrs Foster of using "very loose language" and called for her to "reconsider her position" as she risked "opening Pandora's box".

"Arlene, not for the first time, has used very loose language with regard to the Belfast Agreement," he stated.

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sdlp-mla-calls-for-arlene-foster-to-resign-over-good-friday-agreement-comments-37382008.html
A SDLP response to Foster:
In the wake of her comments Mr [Daniel] McCrossan said that Mrs Foster should do the "honourable thing and resign" or at "the very least" take a long holiday.

"You’re out of control and wrong to say the Good Friday Agreement is not "sacrosanct"," the West Tyrone MLA wrote on social media.

"It’s a treaty lodged with the UN and fully endorsed by 676,966 (71%) of NI voters.

"Far more than 349,442 (44%) who voted Leave.

"You’re hugely divisive and dangerous - each and every time you open your mouth you put your foot in it!"

mathanxiety · 04/10/2018 21:06

Somerville
Coming from the kind of poverty and discrimination that encouraged narrow mindsets and sectarian violence, my parents’ generation of Irish Catholics hammered home the importance of education and learning for its own sake as a route away from bigotry and towards freedom. The older I get the more convinced I am that they are right.

YY to that.

My mum's parents had a small farm in the SE of Ireland. It's still in the family, with my cousin now the farmer. Granny and grandad had eight children born in the 1930s to mid 40s, all of whom were sent to third level education as a means of giving them the chance to stay in Ireland as opposed to emigrating as grandad's brothers and sister had to. Or if they emigrated they would not have to break their backs working in construction.

In NI in particular, third level education was seen as the only way for Catholics to escape the poverty and discrimination trap set by the Unionist majority who gerrymandered constituencies at all levels to ensure virtually no nationalist/RC representation, with resulting appalling effects on employment and housing. The segregated education system worked in favour of RCs seeking to escape it all, as schools encouraged academics.

Meanwhile in Unionist areas, jobs for school leavers were assured, but they did not survive the massive decline in manufacturing industry and in particular the death of ship building. There was no tradition of third level education, and in fact, Queens University was seen from the 50s on as a bastion of nationalism and an environment unfriendly to students expecting the same privilege that they experienced as Unionists in other areas of life.

Result - a massive problem in educational attainment among protestant/Unionist boys in the bottom socio economic half of society, fostered by a very counter productive model of manhood that emphasises violence and tribal loyalty.

www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-26855040
Take a look at the table at the end.

mathanxiety · 04/10/2018 21:13

The outrage of the current system saddles non academic children with a life time of debt in return for a 'career' in retail with a degree in lesbian Norse myths from the university of Colton Bassett.

To be fair, you really don't see that many unusual courses of that ilk in places like 'the university of Colton Bassett'.

For the most part it is 'degrees' in home care, and English Lit or History degrees for students who have demonstrated little or no academic inclination that end up wasting taxpayer money and let's face it, turning out people who are not really able to write, whose reading material on their courses included books that a lot of people in schools both in the UK and in the rest of the world studied in their secondary cycle. I am thinking Animal Farm and similar.

Peregrina · 04/10/2018 21:30

You’re out of control and wrong to say the Good Friday Agreement is not "sacrosanct"," the West Tyrone MLA wrote on social media.

"It’s a treaty lodged with the UN and fully endorsed by 676,966 (71%) of NI voters.

Treaties can be amended or superseded by another, if all the signatories agree that this is necessary. But that is not the case with the GFA.

1tisILeClerc · 04/10/2018 21:39

The GFA CAN be amended but it would take a lot of negotiating over many, many years and it would have to be done free of the extra strain being imposed on it by Brexit. Therefore for the purposes of Brexit it is solid.

Peregrina · 04/10/2018 21:55

Therefore for the purposes of Brexit it is solid.

I absolutely hope so. The existence of the GFA was what swung me to vote Remain. I would have loved to vote to give Cameron a kick in the teeth, but this issue was too important and too hard won for me to do that.

Icantreachthepretzels · 04/10/2018 22:00

I came over to the thread from my 'I'm on' list just now - and saw the top line of Peregrina's post 'you're out of control and wrong...' - all following on from posts by math.
'bloody hell' I thought, 'it's all kicked off over at westminsterenders'. Very glad to see it was just a quote - and aimed at the much more deserving Arlene Foster Grin

mathanxiety · 04/10/2018 22:14

Yes indeed SingingBabooshkaBadly. The US in particular has a long history of respecting technical/engineering/tinkering focus, maybe because of such a strong German heritage, maybe because of being a frontier society engaged with taming nature for about 200 years. Certainly the early founding of the Army Corps of Engineers was a major boost to the idea of technical education being a very valuable and respect-worthy thing.

mathanxiety · 04/10/2018 22:15

Grin Icantreachthepretzels
It wouldn't be the first time I have been accused of being out of control and wrong

bellinisurge · 05/10/2018 06:33

Arlene Foster's comments are opportunistic shit. She's taking advantage of the stupid "I don't want to do it like this, mummy, it's too hard" whining from Brexiteers.

Peregrina · 05/10/2018 07:24

Going back to "Mickey Mouse" degrees. I think I have seen one in Golf Course Management, described thus. Yet far from it, there can be a good living to be made from managing golf courses. However, in the old days this would have been a technical qualification HNC, HND or such.

borntobequiet · 05/10/2018 08:14

One of my ex students did a golf course management qualification, not sure it was a degree, and as far as I know is doing very well for himself.

Chocolala · 08/10/2018 18:50

Golf course management is apparently an excellent degree, because there is a shortage of golf course managers (who knew!?!).

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