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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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RedToothBrush · 28/09/2018 08:46

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/28/theresa-may-tory-grassroots-brexit-tension-boils-over?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet&__twitter_impression=true
'May's totally betrayed us': Tory grassroots' Brexit tension boils over
Conservative constituency groups backed the PM after Salzburg, but many are livid about her Chequers plan

A poll last week by the Tory grassroots website ConservativeHome found that, post-Salzburg, just one in 10 party members thought May should stick with her plan – down from a quarter before the EU’s rebuff.

And

“Most people cannot conceive a situation where Theresa May can give any more concessions without totally losing face in the party and the country,” said Costelloe. “Unhappy would be far too mild a word. The membership would be absolutely incandescent.”

Party Conference is going to be a PARTY

OP posts:
Talkstotrees · 28/09/2018 08:46

Thank you Red Flowers

1tisILeClerc · 28/09/2018 08:52

With 'not knowing what we don't know' wasn't it Mr Bush that coined that, or maybe a chief of staff?
Agreed, a statement 'We haven't a clue' would have saved a lot of effort, in keeping with the lack of effort into getting a possible deal, you know one that fits the EU parameters even slightly.
At least 'Yes Prime Minister' was humourous, and it made sense even if 'wrong'.

bellinisurge · 28/09/2018 08:53

The belligerent will just say "bring it on" and "it's all the EU's fault ".
Someone needs to be a grown up.

1tisILeClerc · 28/09/2018 08:56

{Party Conference is going to be a PARTY}
For the benefit of 'reality TV' can it be a mortal combat party with real swords?

lonelyplanetmum · 28/09/2018 09:00

The party conference is going to be a massacre.

It’s just so dangerous isn’t it? There’s a no feasible plan - a vacuum. On the one hand there’s a briefing paper that succinctly and perceptively comments it is not clear where the govt go from here.

There is a economic chaos looming. This means that our parliamentarians and electorate flailing in the vacuum will grasp at any solution, possibly Boris’s?

The chaos has created an opportunity -like in the US for the very powerful to make a killing. Like those behind Aggregate IQ, SCL Elections, Cambridge Analytica, Legatum, IEA, Atlas Network, Civitas, CPS, Policy Exchange, Sovereign Asset Management, Cobden Centre, Cato Institute etc.

Unlike DH I’m not prone to conspiracy theory. On this occasion there are ruthless survival of the fittest forces lurking. Unless some how people wake up and act together, the public rights protections and benefits, the NHS, free state education, food standards, workers rights are about to be sacrificed.

Clearly Boris shares the views of some of the disaster capitalist types and no doubt he is impressed by the wealth of the list of the billionaires like the Mercers, corporations, think tanks etc.But to what extent is he in their pockets?

TheElementsSong · 28/09/2018 09:10

Thanks for the excellent summary Red!

As for the state of the grassroots Leavers, I think they're starting to foam at the mouth a bit, judging by recent activity on MN. There has just been a particularly enjoyable example (I might print it out and frame it) on the second referendum thread.

mostdays · 28/09/2018 09:17

I've started sharing the government papers on consequences of a no deal Brexit on Facebook and asking whether this is what leavers voted for. Inevitably half the replies are "project fear! Remainer propaganda!" from eejits people who are surprised when I point out this is government issued stuff. The very government dragging us towards no deal...Our biggest problem is always going to be the millions who don't care enough to engage with the details but who do care enough to vote leave.

There was an article in one of the local papers about Fenland, where I used to live, being the unhappiest place in the country. The leave vote there was big. People honestly believe that Brexit is going to make their lives better and happier.

Peregrina · 28/09/2018 09:22

Is the Tory party going to be a massacre? Don't they value preservation above all else? They will only stab May in the back if they think she is clearly a vote loser, and that isn't the case so far.

Rumsfeld is the man of the unknown unknowns. It's a statement which raises a laugh but is true. It summarises the unintended consequences of some actions.

1tisILeClerc · 28/09/2018 09:25

Thank you Preregrina, that name was rattling around but I wasn't sure.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 28/09/2018 09:37

Great OP Red thank you.

Hasenstein · 28/09/2018 09:41

.

Peregrina · 28/09/2018 09:42

Where is the second Referendum thread?

The Tory grassroots may be frothing at the mouth, but they want us to crash out, just going by your link Red. What a pity the reporter didn't ask them about what should be done about the GFA, which they probably don't realise is an international treaty. Or another pity, that he didn't find a Tory club in the north somewhere, to see if they have a different take on the situation.

Motheroffourdragons · 28/09/2018 09:45

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

MyBrexitUnicornDied · 28/09/2018 09:59

Thanks red lord only knows what the Tory party conference will be like.

DGRossetti · 28/09/2018 10:16

.

CardinalSin · 28/09/2018 10:19

Thanks again Red. I've skipped the last couple of threads (lack of time, and needing to keep my blood pressure down!).

Mark Thomas does an entertaining take on a No Deal Brexit.

1tisILeClerc · 28/09/2018 10:22

Boris Quote from SKY news.
{Canada-style free deal to "fulfil the instruction of the people".}

Did anyone see that on the voting form?
Another version of 'lie'.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 28/09/2018 10:23

Has anyone seen this? Apologies if its been linked before:
twitter.com/news2dayRTE/status/1044985180253896704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1044985180253896704&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thepoke.co.uk%2F2018%2F09%2F28%2Fkids-tv-brexit-explainer-thats-simple-brilliant%2F
Its a piece on Brexit from RTE's children's news programme. Somewhat telling that the way news is pitched to adults here is how they pitch news at kids in ROI.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/09/2018 10:25

'Brexit fatigue' leaves British businesses unprepared for no deal

If those firms suffer Brexit-related losses, then I hope their shareholders act accordingly against CEOs & managers who cba to do their job

The Uk govt too, isn't doing as much as govts of those E27 members most affected by Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/28/brexit-fatigue-leaves-british-businesses-unprepared-for-no-deal

Last week the Dutch prime minister said his country was more prepared than the UK for a no-deal Brexit,
and the Irish government launched a national campaign of events and workshops to help businesses understand potential changes in export regimes.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/09/2018 10:25

German govt checklist: Are you ready for BREXIT?

With Brexit countdown days-hrs-minutes- seconds !

Useful for smaller companies (larger ones should have been prepping since the ref)

Practical checklists for each topic, e.g. movement of goods
and each firm can customise their own list.
Far better than the pathetic UK govt notices.

https://www.ihk.de/brexitcheck-en

DGRossetti · 28/09/2018 10:26

“Most people cannot conceive a situation where Theresa May can give any more concessions without totally losing face in the party and the country,” said Costelloe. “Unhappy would be far too mild a word. The membership would be absolutely incandescent.”

"... you say that like it's a bad thing ..."

1tisILeClerc · 28/09/2018 10:35

Hi Cardinal, you meant Mark Steele but yes a very funny take.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/09/2018 10:36

I expect Boris, JRM and co are just laying out their stall for the leadership election after Brexit

Is even Boris stupid enough to want to be the one in charge when the Brexit unicorn crashes over the cliff ?

Afterwards though ...

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
Hazardswan · 28/09/2018 11:13

Morning. Thanks Red