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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 03/10/2018 23:10

Thanks for the funding link, woman Yet another shameful "hostile" act by the H.O.

re November, imo:
Unless May makes a significant concession on NI, there may not even be a Council meeting, or at least Brexit may not reach the Agenda.

However the meeting goes, or even if it doesn't happen,
if the EU has decided by the 18 Nov meeting date that a WA is not possible, then they are going to announce this clearly enough to warn all E27 businesses and orgs to complete there preparations for no deal.

I expect Labour to respond with a No Confidence motion, but it probably won't succeed because there aren't several Tory MPs willing to risk a Corbyn govt

  • NC would mean that May and JC have 14 days to try to gain support for a minority govt; if neither can, then it*s a GE. Unlikely.

The no deal announcement would shock the markets - if they really believe it.
They might not believe it until late Jan - hence the date of that conspiracy that James Patrick wrote about.

Once No Deal moves from being a worry to an imminent catastrophe:

The markets will react / panic,
Sterling will crash to Euro parity, maybe later to dollar parity,
capital flight,
UK economy downrated 2+ levels by Moody etc

This might cause sufficient damage to panic
either
May into a U-turn / her possible fallback plan - that's Norway+ or even Remain
or
cause the Tories to topple her and install someone for Norway+

DoctorTwo · 03/10/2018 23:12

Alternative Ulster?

BigChocFrenzy · 03/10/2018 23:16

Sounds like May is still trying to negotiate directly with Germany & France in particular, over the head of Barnier

  • E27 leaders have repeatedly said they won't do that

Her fascist friend Orban and possibly Poland might support this tactic; noone else

She should be telling Robbins to hammer it out with Barnier

BigChocFrenzy · 03/10/2018 23:20

red Best thing for a stinking cold is chicken soup with 40 cloves of garlic
(yes, genuine recipe and you won*t be in the mood to dtd anyway)
then an early night in a warm bed.

mathanxiety · 04/10/2018 00:21

In July 2009 the then business secretary John Hutton announced plans to amend the law and a consultation on it all .. The point is tips and restaurants has been in issue for at least 9 years. Surely if you’re trying to do a ‘Look a squirrel’ there are better Topics

I suspect the Tories are going to unveil a system similar to that in the US restaurant industry - wait staff being paid very little and depending on tips to earn an actual income. This will be packaged as 'opportunity' for the most motivated to earn £££, and those unable to hack it will be pilloried as lazy, unambitious, not service minded, etc.

Loving the Topic/squirrel reference.
What has a hazelnut in every bite?/squirrel sh!#e! is a refrain from school that occasionally pops back into my conscious brain...

mathanxiety · 04/10/2018 00:23

Tips are taxed in the US. The IRS has schedules to consult as you prepare your taxes, indicating how much you owe.

mathanxiety · 04/10/2018 00:32

Thomasinaa
What advantage would come (and to whom) from deliberately harming the EU? Who is behind it?

Steve Bannon.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/10/2018 01:56

Hazelnut in every bite  math !

BigChocFrenzy · 04/10/2018 01:57

Ooh, the MN gremlin wants us to be grumpy and is removing smileys again

lonelyplanetmum · 04/10/2018 06:11

Loving the Topic/squirrel reference.
What has a hazelnut in every bite?/squirrel sh!#e

Thank you Math . I wondered if anyone would get it! The Topic squirrel shite phrase from my childhood also pops into my head periodically. I think of that phrase when the gov try to introduce anything else, it just seems like a squirrel distraction ( like Tips). Although to be fair, they should be doing something else after two years..
If tips do go back to counting as wages like the US we will return to the position where tips can count towards the minimum wage.Is there a minimum wage in the US? Off to google.

If we still retain a minimum wage of course. The way we are headed it could be repealed by a Minister sitting in their office one day just instructing some minion to knock out a statutory instrument.

Peregrina · 04/10/2018 08:09

I wish we would adopt the Scandinavian system of not tipping. It would be so much easier.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/10/2018 08:12

There is a minimum wage in the US, low like ours.
There is a big campaign to raise it to $15 / hr

Mmmcainswoman · 04/10/2018 08:24

Has anyone else bought Mc Cain chips for tea.Wink Grin

Big old Mc Strike today, service economy workers. Low skilled I suppose Mrs may would call them: Wetherspoons, TGI Fridays, McDonald’s, Uber Eats and Deliveroo.

Peregrina · 04/10/2018 08:30

Has anyone had those McCain Gastro chips? Expensive but good.

woman11017 · 04/10/2018 08:34

Back to my old name now, was trying out a mc cain version there.Smile

I'll try them Peregrina just bought the kiddies variety for the first time in yonks.

Think that service workers' strike might be one to watch today though.

Not being reported yet in our media as far as I can see. As expected.

mathanxiety · 04/10/2018 09:21

10degreestostarboard Tue 02-Oct-18 14:58:03
Motherof dragons

...so, err,why shouldn’t your children be paying for their (world class) university courses again?

Or should poor folk contribute from their taxes instead?

Maybe the UK should do as the 66 best universities in the US do and accept students on a need blind basis, then offer those who can't pay a free ride, give or take?

Someone has to pay for university. It can be the state paying, or the money can come from massive donations by graduates and/or sponsorship from corporations. In the US, university endowments pay for students from disadvantaged backgrounds to attend the world's finest universities (check out any list of the top 100). UK university endowments are pitiful compared to the millions and millions at the disposal of American universities.

You get to choose which it is - state or private money - that pays for universities. It has to be one or the other.

The only choice not open to anyone in the UK who is interested in any sort of a future for anyone, rich or poor, is closing down the third level avenue of opportunity. It would be very helpful to the UK to redesignate many universities as polytechnics and to try to restore some of the prestige technical education once had, with hard core technical courses and partnerships with industries to facilitate study-plus-apprenticeship routes into careers. Sadly, this probably won't happen...

The attitude of begrudgery toward third level education is the hallmark of a society that is going nowhere, fast. Hopefully your opinion is not one that is widespread.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 04/10/2018 09:39

Math am I right in thinking that in the US and elsewhere the term polytechnic has a certain prestige that it lacks in the U.K.? I seem to remember some of the last institutions here to have polytechnic in their names dropped it because it put off potential students who wanted to go to a ‘proper’ university whereas in other countries polytechnic donates excellence in science, engineering etc.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/10/2018 10:55

Nissan becomes latest manufacturer to warn against hard Brexit

Stop dancing and start listening to what industry are telling you:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/04/nissan-becomes-latest-manufacturer-to-warn-against-hard-brexit

[today] The Japanese carmaker Nissan has warned the government that serious disruption will be caused to its huge manufacturing operation in the north-east of England if the UK fails to secure a deal with the EU that avoids a hard Brexit.
< that's no just no deal, it's any kind of hard Brexit >

Carlos Ghosn, the chair of Nissan, has described its British operations as “a European investment based in the UK”,
which employs almost 8,000 people, mostly at its factory near Sunderland. A further 30,000 people are employed in UK companies supplying Nissan.
...
Colin Lawther, a Nissan executive, told the House of Commons international trade committee in February 2017 that tariffs would add £500m to the plant’s costs, which it might not survive, and that long delays of parts at borders would be a disaster for the operation.
...
In a statement to the Guardian authorised by the main board in Japan, Nissan said:
...
"Today we are among those companies with major investments in the UK who are still waiting for clarity on what the future trading relationship between the UK and the EU will look like.
As a sudden change from those rules to the rules of the World Trading Organization will have serious implications for British industry,
we urge UK and EU negotiators to work collaboratively towards an orderly balanced Brexit that will continue to encourage mutually beneficial trade.”
...
Senior executives at Toyota, BMW and the PSA Group, which owns Vauxhall, have all warned this week that they are likely to reduce their operations in the UK in the event of a hard Brexit.

In September Ralf Speth, chief executive of Jaguar Land Rover, warned the prime minister that its operations faced grinding to a halt
and that “tens of thousands” of jobs in the industry could be lost.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/10/2018 10:58

UK car sales tumble 20% amid emissions and Brexit uncertainty – business live

Not helped if domestic market weakens.
Some other businesses also reporting tumbling profits

www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/oct/04/uk-car-sales-tumble-brexit-emissions-tests-stock-markets-dollar-italy-business-live

BigChocFrenzy · 04/10/2018 11:09

This is from 2017, but afaik the situation has remained basically the same:

PSA Group factories across Europe are currently running at such low capacity they could easily swallow up the output of the Vauxhall plants in the UK – and still have room to spare

http://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/psa-groups-underused-factories-swallow-uk-productio/129812

BigChocFrenzy · 04/10/2018 11:31

France warned on Wednesday that it would prefer Britain to crash out of Europe without a deal rather than accept a compromise that undermined the integrity of the European Union

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/10/03/no-deal-brexit-better-bad-deal-us-says-macron-minister/

The stark warning from Nathalie Loiseau, the country’s Europe minister, came as both sides prepared for a crucial fortnight of negotiation following the close of the Conservative party conference.

“No deal would be better than a bad deal, < sounds more convincing from France somehow >
Ms Loiseau told a French radio station, turning familiar Brexiteers’ own mantra back on the UK,
before warning that “time is running out” for Theresa May to strike a deal with Brussels.

1tisILeClerc · 04/10/2018 11:42

I would expect there to be quite a 'bunfight' in boardrooms and between various heads of EU industry planning which UK manufacturing to take on, to help unemployment figures in Europe. Give locals and immigrants a job.

ShinyElena · 04/10/2018 13:02

This makes me so frustrated.

Mercedes-Benz abandoned plans to move production to UK plant after Brexit vote

Mercedes-Benz had been considering moving production to the UK ahead of the EU referendum in 2016, but decided against the move after the vote for Brexit, the car maker’s chief executive has revealed.

Dieter Zetsche, outgoing head of the brand, told Paris Motor Show attendees that he had begun negotiations with Nissan regarding potentially using its Sunderland plant to build Mercedes-Benz cars.

“Before Brexit there was one project where we were looking at an option of producing cars in Sunderland together,” he said.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/mercedes-benz-brexit-production-move-nissan-plant-sunderland-a8568331.html

Peregrina · 04/10/2018 14:43

TM only did well by the dismal standard of last year. Nothing new or sensible.

BestIsWest · 04/10/2018 18:28

I did my degree in Economics at a Poly. It was an excellent course. Very well taught.

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