Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
70
OlennasWimple · 29/09/2018 01:41

Place mat king

One day I'll be able to follow that with "Isn't it nice to have good news for a change?"

BigChocFrenzy · 29/09/2018 01:44

Tory MPs will never let Johnson lead, says former deputy Alan Duncan

Duncan is a former Tory deputy chairman

(He was also the first openly gay Tory minister, appointed by Cameron. It was a big deal for a Tory, then suddenly it didn't matter for him or for any other gay Tory afterwards - shows an abrupt attitude shift can happen)

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/tory-mps-will-never-let-boris-lead-says-former-deputy-alan-duncan-in-devastating-attack-7fd5qgpnk

Mr Johnson mistakenly believes he can become “Britain’s Trump” but has spent all his electoral appeal, Sir Alan Duncan has told The Times.

In a devastating attack on his previous boss, the senior minister says the Foreign Office had to “invest an enormous amount of time handling” Mr Johnson during his period as foreign secretary.
...
" not intellectually focused
he's got a very untidy mind.
And he doesn't know if he's a journalist or a politician - but he does know it's all about him".
...
The more he repeats what everyone can see is not credible the more his own credibility disappears"

borntobequiet · 29/09/2018 06:38

The Beeb will have lost the yoof with the first mention of Noel Edmonds. It’s a wonder it doesn’t reference the Beatles.

borntobequiet · 29/09/2018 06:46

And re the vegetarian meals I raised an eyebrow slightly at this
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45653279
Yes it’s aimed at the obese. But I’ve seen a couple of Leavers comment that rationing would at least solve the obesity crisis. Few things easier to stockpile and distribute than shakes, soup and bars!

lonelyplanetmum · 29/09/2018 07:05

" Vote Leave for a low calorie squirrel and chestnut soup diet. " Wonder how that would have gone down.

The BBC has now shifted from not mentioning Brexit ( e.g. the total censoring of the first marches) to some regular comment.

It's still biased though. Why are the BBC prepared to promote a renegade ex cabinet minister touting alternative plans for the country in defiance of the Gov'ts declared position.? Yet it will not give any oxygen to the possibility that retaining EU membership ( say for a decade or so) may be a safer option.

They are belatedly showing anxieties about car manufacturing though- three articles in succession hidden in the business pages.

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
MangoSplit · 29/09/2018 07:07

Place marking

lonelyplanetmum · 29/09/2018 07:12

But BCFs link is what should be the main news ..

<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/28/us-groups-raise-millions-to-support-rightwing-uk-thinktanks" target="_blank">https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/28/us-groups-raise-millions-to-support-rightwing-uk-thinktanks

The plan that Boris is touting comes directly from the IEA doesn't it? Why isn't the previous influence of Legatum and the switch of the team to the IEA and it's role in the formation of the ERG and Liam Fox's policy bigger news?

It IS what happened in the US and it's very scary.

lonelyplanetmum · 29/09/2018 07:35

" The Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), the Adam Smith Institute, Policy Exchange and the Legatum Institute have all received financial support from US backers via this route.
The disclosure leaves the thinktanks facing questions as to whether wealthy Americans have undue influence in British politics, particularly over the form Brexit takes.
The UK thinktanks are some of strongest proponents of radical free trade deals with reduced regulation – positions likely to benefit big American businesses, which have opposed Europe’s tighter regulations since the 2008 financial crash."

It's hard to explain and weird but it almost makes me feel sorry for the ERG types. There's this con about taking back control because the right wing of the Tory party think that they can dominate. But am I right to think they are small fry and will be swallowed up if organisations fuelled by people like the Mercer family and the Koch brothers gain even more influence? Over $300 million was spent to influence the US 2012 elections 2012 and more than $174 million in the 2014 mid terms.

The infiltration is now happening here -the ERG (and Boris ?) are the mouthpieces for the IEA. The emphasis is the wrong way around, if mentioned at all in the press it looks as if the IEA is helping the ERG and /or the government with ideas. But really aren't the politicians who buy into the IEA's opinions just being used as puppets for those behind the IEA?

RedToothBrush · 29/09/2018 07:36

www.thesun.co.uk/news/7374505/raab-interview-brexit-irish-border/
Brexit secretary Dominic Raab accuses EU chiefs of using Irish border dilemma as part of plot to break up the UK
In an exclusive interview with The Sun, Mr Raab has criticised the EU for trying to sabotage Britain's Brexit plan

Dear Dominic, I voted Remain and one of my main reasons for doing so, was the Irish border because I understand the politics of NI enough to realise it was a bit of an issue. Its not my fault or the EU’s that those running the referendum campaigns deliberately avoided the subject. If you are only just now learning about NI politics then that's your ignorance and your problem. What was that phrase a leaver used here about it not being their circus? Well guess what Dom, you're the ring master. Sort it out.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 29/09/2018 07:38

www.thesun.co.uk/news/7374726/theresa-may-tory-members-sacked-before-election/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Theresa May faces Tory revolt after poll reveals 80% of members believe she should be axed as PM before next election
It comes as a second survey found that 60 per cent of global investors don't have faith in her ability to deliver a Brexit deal by the November deadline

OP posts:
DGRossetti · 29/09/2018 07:38

I wonder what the real story behind a sudden shortage of epipens is ..

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45667480

RedToothBrush · 29/09/2018 08:00

That's bizarre. A sudden - and unexpected - surge in demand? Which the manufacturers couldn't plan for. Which is affecting the whole of Europe. (doesn't sound like they supply the US)

So either people suddenly got allergies all at the same time, or someone paid over the odds to get priority for a big order.

I note here the expiry is 12 months so someone needs them for something in the near future.

We'll spotted DGR.

It does very much sound like we either have a sudden event based mass allergy breakout in the population which is scary to think about or we have Brexit related issue.

OP posts:
Peregrina · 29/09/2018 08:02

"Not my monkey, not my circus" was the quotation, I think.

As for Johnson being questioned by Peston: Switzerland. is. in. the. Single. Market. you. prat. There, spelt it out in sentences of one word, with information which one second of googling would have told him. It's not in the EU Customs union, which may be why he is getting confused. Even that is pathetic, he was Foreign Secretary.... probably the worst in terms of sheer laziness in history.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 29/09/2018 08:05

Just caught the end of a piece on BBC Breakast about the U.K. leaving Euratom. Apparently they didn’t get any response to their repeated requests to the department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy for a minister to comment.

RedToothBrush · 29/09/2018 08:08

m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/sajid-javid-should-be-the-next-prime-minister-says-tory-local-government-chief_uk_5badcb18e4b0b4d308d1af58?mkg&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage
Sajid Javid Backed By Tory Town Halls' Chief To Be Next Prime Minister
The head of the Local Government Association tells HuffPost UK: "He quietly gets on and does his job - that is not Boris’ strong suit."

Tory party conference and all the headlines are about Theresa going and who will be the next leader.

Nothing on policy.

Which might be good for the party under the circumstances

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 29/09/2018 08:09

Seven months from now

Johnson "I mistakenly didn't realise Switzerland was in the single market"

OP posts:
woman11017 · 29/09/2018 08:15

It does very much sound like we either have a sudden event based mass allergy breakout in the population which is scary to think about or we have Brexit related issue
Epipens are absolutely essential for teachers. The range, frequency and complexity of severe allerigic reactions that so many kids have is staggering now. It's rocketed in the last 5-10 years.

RedToothBrush · 29/09/2018 08:21

Otto English @ otto_english
The Conservative party conference is being held at the ICC in Birmingham - built with £49.7million of funds provided by theEuropean Council. The foundation stone was laid by Jacques Delors.

Birmingham city centre was destroyed by German bombing in WW2 and hastily and cheaply reconstructed in the 50s and 60s. Hundreds of millions of pounds of EU money has poured into that city since the 80s with the Conservative Party conference taking place bang in the centre

And please.... please don't tell me it's "our money" or that the UK government would have done it anyway because I can't be bothered to take you by the hand, lead you to a corner and explain simple things in words of one syllable

OP posts:
1tisILeClerc · 29/09/2018 08:22

Perhaps a bit of over thinking but:
{Hence the reports that thousands of UK military generators would need to be flown back from Afghanistan etc
and put on boats all around the NI coast}
Which will imply at least several hundred MILITARY to oversee the running, maintenance and SECURITY of the generators, who will naturally be based in NI.
This 'ramping up' of military personnel in NI may not go down well with certain groups, and as such may inflame the currently very delicate situation.

RedToothBrush · 29/09/2018 08:34

Patrick Kielty @patrickielty
And please.... please don't tell me it's "our money" or that the UK government would have done it anyway because I can't be bothered to take you by the hand, lead you to a corner and explain simple things in words of one syllable

1. Northern Ireland is made up of a majority of Unionists (as in the Conservative and Unionist Party) and, believe it or not, a rather large minority of Nationalists (as in Irish Nationalists)

2. These Irish Nationalists don’t see themselves as British but rather inconveniently as Irish (who knew?)

3. For over 30 years we killed each other because of these differences which means Northern Ireland is nothing like Camden or Westminster.

4. The Good Friday Agreement ended that violence by the following devious magic - Unionists were guaranteed that Northern Ireland would be part of the UK until the majority voted otherwise.

The Irish was border was removed and the island linked so Nationalists could pretend they were already living in a United Ireland (yes, Tony Blair did slight of hand much better than you)

5. Some of these Nationalists then accepted being part of the UK as their day to day lives were essentially Irish.

6. This cunning plan was sold to us on the basis that we were all part of the EU therefore fixation on nationality was so last World War.

7. Implementing the Good Friday Agreement was torturous (think Brexit with actual bombs, not metaphorical suicide vests) but we finally made peace. Yet 20 years later NI remains a divided society.

8. Thanks to your glorious Brexit vision Northern Ireland will become more divided as some form of economic border checks will become part of daily lives.

9. If those checks take place between NI and Ireland, the Nationalists who were once happy being part of the UK will change their mind.

10. If they take place in the Irish Sea some Unionists will be livid. However they'll still support being part of the UK (the clue is in the Unionist bit)

11. Your Brexit lies have opened a Pandora’s box for Northern Ireland. It's one reason why the majority of people in NI voted to remain in the EU (almost as if they knew more about the fragile equilibrium of their politics than you)

12. Barely mentioned before Brexit, a border poll is now inevitable thanks to your monumental ignorance.

13. When that poll is eventually held the Nationalists who were once content being part of a Northern Ireland within the UK and EU will vote to leave the UK to feel as Irish and European as they did before Brexit.

14. The poll will be much closer thanks to your Brexit folly and could easily be lost by Unionists, breaking up the UK.

15. Any break up of the Union will be your fault (a tad inconvenient as a member of the Conservative and er, Unionist party)

16. The EU is not responsible for your blundering lack of foresight. Like most people in Northern Ireland they were happy with the status quo.

17. By the time the penny drops that you can’t preserve the Union you want without the one you don’t, it will be too late.

18. You will be remembered not as the Churchillian visionary you delude yourself to be but the ignoramus who triggered the break up of the UK.

19. If there’s any justice all this will come to pass when you're Prime Minister so you can finally swim in the constitutional sewage you've created (though we all know you’ll be in Nice with your trotters up)

20. Meantime, if you’re so concerned about keeping Northern Ireland totally aligned with the rest of the UK where’s your support for our same sex marriage and women’s right to choose? Your silence is deafening.

That Patrick Kielty whose Dad was murdered in the Troubles, in case you were unaware Boris and Dom.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 29/09/2018 08:40

In the future

Johnson "I mistakenly didn't realise Brexit meant leaving the European Union, I didn't get what EU was an abbreviation for"

Johnson "I mistakenly didn't realise that the GFA stopped people blowing things and people apart in England too. I just thought applied to NI which doesn't really matter"

OP posts:
Mrsr8 · 29/09/2018 08:41

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/09/2018 09:19

From that article, the advice doesn't give confidence:

"The DHSC guidance said that if people were left with nothing but expired AAIs they should keep them - until they get replacements - and be prepared to use them.
While AAIs lose their potency and become less effective after their expiry date, they are not harmful, and it is better to use an expired AAI than none at all"

I wonder which epipens are in sort supply, because there seem plenty available online, even in the UK, e.g.
www.clickpharmacy.co.uk/epipen

BigChocFrenzy · 29/09/2018 09:22

A problem with daft questions on visa waiver forms, at least the US version:

The woman who accidentally ticked: 'I am a terrorist'
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-45678517

"Nobody who was engaged in terrorism, espionage or genocide would ever tick 'yes',

I don't imagine that anybody has ever deliberately ticked this box.
"But once you are on that list you are never going to get off it."

woman11017 · 29/09/2018 09:23

I wonder what the real story behind a sudden shortage of epipens is
I wonder which epipens are in sort supply Oh, I see. Sad