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Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

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IrenetheQuaint · 18/07/2018 22:59

GinGinGin

20nil · 18/07/2018 23:10

Thanks Red.

Cat: I couldn’t agree more that this is almost entirely down to the Tories and especially David Cameron. But I don’t think there’s much hope of Labour saying yes to a national government either. It would be suicide for the MPs who joined it and the front bench would never prop up the Tories. They want to bring down the government above all else.

Mrsr8 · 18/07/2018 23:12

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

SwedishEdith · 18/07/2018 23:13

.

thecatfromjapan · 18/07/2018 23:15

I despair. ☹️

That's a very good summation, Red.

Arborea · 18/07/2018 23:17

On the last thread RedToothbrush said

If the ERG get their way, they'll get the dementia tax anyway as they'll have to pay for social care.

They already do have to pay for their social care, and to a large extent there's been a dementia tax in place since 2014, although I would guess that most people outside the system (and many within) won't have realized it. However there's always room to make people pay even more, and my guess would be that the current concession for couples which protects the family home will go, meaning that the council will be allowed to charge the cost of care on the person's home, even when their spouse lives there, and will realize it when that person dies/goes into care.

My DH, who is a Remainer, scoffed when I told him about the statement from Arla: I really don't think people will take this issue seriously unless the mainstream media pick it up, and so far this seems unlikely.

thecatfromjapan · 18/07/2018 23:29

It's hard to know what it will take, Arborea.

Sainsbury's warned people ages ago, as did John Lewis.

The BBC are a failure. There should be a rolling, serious news slot, which discusses all this, and not in their ludicrous 'balanced' way. Instead, they treat Brexit as infotainment news: lots of of-the-moment drama stories, fading into the ether, with no serious attempt at joined up analysis.

And never mind their refusal to cover the illegality angle.

And I think Pretzels is tight: it'll be leak, acclimatise, present, leak, acclimatise, present with regard to stockpiling.

It's obscene.

An obscenity.

A nation and lives wrecked because of a completely shit political party clinging on to a worthless tenure of government. ☹️

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 23:30

Jamie Jenkins @ JJJenkinsSJB
The govt is spending £3billion preparing for a No Deal Brexit. That's enough to give every GP Practice another two GPs, and to give each NHS Foundation Trust another 540 nurses for a year.

But yeah, I'm sure we can just fund the NHS with all that sovereignty instead.

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Mrsr8 · 18/07/2018 23:32

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

OlennasWimple · 18/07/2018 23:35

On the Government of National Unity thingy - I said two years ago that this needed a cross-party commission to lead the thinking on the sort of Brexit that we wanted and that we could achieve. I still believe that would have been a good strategy - and let's face it, we wouldn't be in a worse position that we currently are.

We should keep watching two particular things from the previous couple of threads IMHO:

  • Jo Swinson / pairing: a bit of a Westminster politico thing, but how they respond to this shows the regard that the Tory party has for Parliamentary conventions and Doing The Right Thing Hmm
  • novichok. Can we just keep repeating that a Brit cit was murdered on UK soil by the Russians, and no-one seems to give a fuck? Angry
thecatfromjapan · 18/07/2018 23:38

Oleanna I totally agree.

The novichok death has just sunk without trace, hasn't it?

Maybe making a fuss would have been too tricky for the wonderful trade deal we're going to do with the US!

thecatfromjapan · 18/07/2018 23:39

For what it's worth. I've signed the National Unity petition. I may have doubts but ... I need hope.

thecatfromjapan · 18/07/2018 23:46

Someone on Twitter (Chris Grey to give credit) has noticed that 'No Deal' is being re-named 'Hard Brexit' and urging us to resist that slippage.

'No Deal' = catastrophe and we must resist attempts to normalise it.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/07/2018 23:52

Thanks, red Thanks

No deal is Armageddon Brexit

UK Govt 70 Notices to business & householders
70, so similar to # of EU notices to stakeholders
Surely not another UK copy & paste job ?

Robert Peston:

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer
RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 23:54

Do Boris and Leo know something we don't????

No. We know it too. It's logical if you think.

They both know that it will be impossible to have a border in place by March next year. There might be a will to do it, but not the means.

Say everything breaks down in December, or runs late into Feb. How do you suddenly hire and train everyone in time?

It's impossible.

If there is no deal we are into unilateral continuity on the border issue especially if there is no backstop. Because we have to be and Ireland have to be. Cos reality.

Which begs a question of the WTO rules and secure borders. The UK and EU would effectively be in breech on the very first day on 30th March if there is no deal.

So legally do we have no option but to put a border in the sea? Yes. There isn't an alternative in the time frame.

Of course neither side can say this publicly. Cos the DUP. It's politically toxic for both Leo and Boris to say it outright, but both betrayed themselves in admitting they acknowledge this reality and are already signed up for whether they admit it or not.

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RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 23:57

Unilateral Continuity doesn't work for the rest UK politically either.

So much of this is pure threat

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KennDodd · 19/07/2018 00:01

www.peoples-vote.uk/march

KennDodd · 19/07/2018 00:02

And this

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/223729

Motheroffourdragons · 19/07/2018 00:02

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

lonelyplanetmum · 19/07/2018 00:04

.

Gratitude

thecatfromjapan · 19/07/2018 00:06

Sorry to lower the tone but .. .

Having spent much of the day furious at the Conservatives, I'm now angry - all over again with the bloody Leave voters.

Given that what we all knew has now been confirmed (all that extra money went on racist advertising because it was most effective), I just find myself thinking:

What the fuck is wrong with all these people?

Being racist is more important to them than jobs, rights ... and food.

Food, for fuck's sake!

Let them eat racism!

☹️☹️☹️☹️

And look what they've unleashed. Not only racists rioting on the streets but racists all over mainstream television.

We have a huge problem with racism. If half the population choose racism over food ...

OlennasWimple · 19/07/2018 00:13

I agree thecat Sad Angry

Red - let's be honest, if there were to be a hard border in March 2019, we would need to be preparing for it right now. There is a raft of legislation (both primary and secondary, I believe) that would need to be amended, as well as the personnel, infrastructure, information systems and everything else that is needed. In fact, starting right now still wouldn't be enough time to do it properly

Icantreachthepretzels · 19/07/2018 00:52

Thanks for the new thread Red. Can't believe how fast we got through that last one.

I just watched a clip from the Last Leg - I stopped watching the when they became such weasels about talking about brexit (they did an episode talking about how Britain was getting poorer whilst everywhere else was growing and did a 'humourous' Hmm is it OK - getting people to send in ideas to make Britain rich again. Never once pointed out the brexit shaped elephant in the room.)
Richard Osman - who is clearly a remainer, really, said such a mealy thing about how Brexit could be a really good thing for this country Hmm but not in the hands of the people who were running it. (said something about hard right oligarchs etc.)

Jo Brand - Shero of the hour - waited until he had finished and then said 'yeah - I disagree with all that.' He tried to make a joke of it - realising she was about to call him on his utter cowardice he said 'so you do think it should be in the hands of the hard right oligarchs?' But she wasn't having it - just straight to the point 'no - you said Brexit could be a good thing and it isn't.'
He tried to weasel again, 'it has to happen.'
She disagreed again.

All these men with their shit eater grins, saying what they think people want to hear because they are too afraid to speak the truth.

I suppose as a fat, middle aged woman who has the audacity to speak in public for a living, Jo is used to plenty of hatred and a bit more won't phase her - but god bless her for daring to say it where the men wouldn't!

And surprising very little hatred (none at all that I saw) in the comments section. Some stupid comments about brexit, yes, and about how the show is too left wing - but no vitriol.
Maybe more and more people are ready to hear the truth.

mybrainhurtsalot · 19/07/2018 01:04

It is completely crazy. But - not sure if this makes it better or worse - I don’t think they are knowingly choosing racism over food. People think they can keep everything the same (or even better, just like the bus said) and lower immigration, which has been very successfully made the scapegoat for years of poor decisions by our own government.

People are not taking the reports of food shortages, medicine supply issues etc seriously, so it’s just being ignored. I’ve been reading the threads right from the start. Along with other readers I’m therefore much more informed than your average person about how Brexit is going and the impossibility of success, (thanks to all the amazing contributors, analysis and links on these threads).

And yet... a big part of my brain is still thinking “it can’t possibly happen, surely someone will call a halt to this madness”. So I’m really not that surprised that these kinds of stories about food shortages, job losses, no flights etc aren’t making an impact. It’s just so far removed from our current position that it seems ludicrous. Like those people who used to say “the consequences can’t be that bad or they wouldn’t have let us vote on it”. It’s disturbing, we’re just bumbling towards disaster.

The government should at least be honest about the expected impact of Brexit. In that ARLA report it said something like Brexit may well be a success in the long term, but in the short to medium term it would lead to shortages and higher prices. They said it would take years to build up our capacity to be self-sufficient. We need that honesty from the government so people know what is coming. They maintain the farce of a Brexit dividend and deny the accuracy of projections that are forecasting a huge drop in GDP and millions of job losses. No wonder a lot of people keep their head in the sand - who’d imagine a government would be willing to destroy the country? To avoid admitting a mistake? For ideology? It seems impossible, but it’s happening.

lonelyplanetmum · 19/07/2018 01:46

What the fuck is wrong with all these people? Being racist is more important to them than jobs, rights ... and food.

And

So I’m really not that surprised that these kinds of stories about food shortages, job losses, no flights etc aren’t making an impact....

It's from December 2017 but a YouGov poll found:

•Half of Leave voters over the age of 65 would be happy for their family members to lose their jobs in order to ensure Brexit goes ahead.
•61% of people who voted Leave at the referendum think that “significant damage” to the UK economy is a price worth paying for taking Britain out of the EU.

This suggests,pro rata, that being racist is more important than jobs to approx 8.5 million people.