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Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

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mathanxiety · 19/07/2018 02:12

The novichok death has just sunk without trace, hasn't it?

It certainly has, making me wonder if someone in the UK has had the granddaddy of massive brain farts.

Whether that happened or not, it's obvious that the government only throws rocks at Russia when it's an easy target, and when it plays well to whatever audience it wants to impress.

mathanxiety · 19/07/2018 02:27

From BJ's speech today:

...worst of all, we allowed the question of the Northern Irish border, which had hitherto been assumed on all sides to be readily soluble, to become so politically charged as to dominate the debate.

If BoJo is not starting a campaign to undermine the DUP and eventually end up with a border in the Irish Sea then these are the words of one of the most stupid people ever to plant a capacious ass on a seat in the HoC.

If he is just a common or garden moron (and all indications so far point to that) then these are the words of someone who thinks in broad strokes and resents being brought down to earth by the details, your average English nationalist who can't understand why Ireland (or any parts thereof) should be allowed to do anything but tip a cap to its betters, and is dumbfounded at the success of Irish diplomatic efforts so far in Brussels.

DGRossetti · 19/07/2018 06:42

.

DGRossetti · 19/07/2018 06:44

Even the BBC seems to have been forced into the bad news camp

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44881058

Plans are being drawn up to issue millions of permits so Britons can drive on EU roads after Brexit.

Up to seven million International Driving Permits could be needed inside a year if the UK and the EU do not agree to mutual recognise of licences, the National Audit Office (NAO) says.

The public spending watchdog warned that "detailed delivery plans" had not yet been completed.

(contd)

EmilyAlice · 19/07/2018 06:54

Goodness, that must mean our current French driving licences (swapped from original UK ones) won't be valid in the UK either. Or would they not be valid in France because the UK driving test would no longer be recognised? Has anyone thought about that yet?

HesterThrale · 19/07/2018 07:12

The suspects in the novichok poisoning case have been identified, and are Russian:

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/salisbury-novichok-attack-skripal-russian-suspects-poisoning-police-investigation-a8453931.html

DGRossetti · 19/07/2018 07:13

Goodness, that must mean our current French driving licences (swapped from original UK ones) won't be valid in the UK either. Or would they not be valid in France because the UK driving test would no longer be recognised? Has anyone thought about that yet?

You'll get an 11th hour SI declaring all EU licences valid. With no checks (of course).

Presumably car insurers are preparing (although I know many that aren't).

frumpety · 19/07/2018 07:23

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/223729

This petition from the last thread is still going strong.

BrexitWife · 19/07/2018 07:23

Place mat king.

I’m hanging on at the idea that we will have a transition period for very personal reasons.
Not sure why we would have the 70 leaflets if we do but.... I need a bit fin hope there.

Mrsr8 · 19/07/2018 07:24

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

BrexitWife · 19/07/2018 07:25

Driving licences.
Of another thing thatnis hard work wo the EU then.

How many more are we going to find out in the next few months?

ConstantlyCold · 19/07/2018 07:27

Thanks Red.

I was listening to Sheila Fogerty on LBC yesterday. Very few callers want BoJo to become PM but loads were supporting Rees Mogg Sad

TheElementsSong · 19/07/2018 07:35

Thanks for the new thread Red

I’m with japancat - Leave voters may have chosen xenophobia initially thinking it would happen at no cost to them, but anybody who still supports Brexit NOW has chosen xenophobia over jobs and food.

And then (as if we’re still 2 years ago and haven’t ourselves deliberately smashed down all options and wasted all that time) they whinge about morally superior Remainers daring to talk about xenophobia.

“Why can’t you see that we Leavers voted for puppies and Christmas and glitter and more immigration from everywhere?”

(1) Because 2 years on it doesn’t matter why you claim you voted. We’re not getting glitter and puppies. So your noble intentions are worth jack,

(2) Because simultaneously (and sometimes even on the same thread) a bunch of other Leavers pop up to explain that they voted to get rid of immigrants at basically any price. Sometimes they’re cunning enough to couch it in weasel words like “Oh noes, 25% of babies are born to women from outside the UK”.

So, dear puppies-glitter Leavers, who should we believe?

NB. I do not feel morally superior. What would be the fucking point? Feeling morally superior would be the flip side of the coin from whinging about your hurty feelings that nobody appreciates your glitter-puppies Leave vote like it’s still 2 years ago.

Mrsr8 · 19/07/2018 07:38

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

CaptainBrickbeard · 19/07/2018 07:39

lonelyplanetmum those poll results put me very much in mind of the Leopards Eating People’s Faces Party voter bewailing that she didn’t think leopards would eat her face. Those Leave voters prepared for the cost of Brexit have no intention of paying it themselves. They’ll change their tune if they realise they will suffer as well.

ClashCityRocker · 19/07/2018 07:43

My sincerest hope is that when these notices are issued, all but the staunchest of leave voters will go 'Eh? Fuck no, this is not what we voted for!'

And then by some sort of miracle brexit will go away.

Pure anecdata, but amongst the leavers I know there has been a definite shift in thinking to 'brexit could have been great but they're fucking it up...it needs stopping'.

(of course, anyone with an ounce of critical thinking skills could have seen their was a risk of this outcome....but no, unicorns for all and taking back control)

RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 07:44

Can't wait to hear Corbyn say that the Russian suspects have been set up or they aren't really Russian...

Anyway

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
Times:

Cabinet stays away as Johnson harks back to ‘glorious vision’ — but does he have a plan?

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a7e8f6b0-8ad5-11e8-a0fd-e428ecc3ac12
Brexit: Cabinet stays away as Boris Johnson harks back to ‘glorious vision’

That'll be a no then.

Good to see the Times pointing out his obvious immission.

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ClashCityRocker · 19/07/2018 07:45

I also think there is an element of pure hard headedness and not wanting to admit they were wrong.

Even whilst the house burns down around them.

RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 07:47

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/chief-whip-julian-smith-told-mps-to-defy-pairing-deals-r5rv59fm3
Chief whip Julian Smith ‘told MPs to defy pairing deals’

Well that ties with the claim he was cracking up under the pressure...

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/07/19/let-scientists-uk-mps-demand/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Let more scientists into the UK, MPs demand

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lonelyplanetmum · 19/07/2018 07:52

Those Leave voters prepared for the cost of Brexit have no intention of paying it themselves. They’ll change their tune if they realise they will suffer as well.

Yes I think that is true of many. Looking at all the articles about 2/3 (?)of Leave voters do not want to pay themselves.

But there is a considerable core of Brexit voters willing to put their money where their mouth is.

This study is interesting- it's from September 2016 but more detailed than some other studies, so gives a good feel for people's ability to sacrifice.

"A core of Brexit voters would tighten their belts to reduce migration: over a third of Leave voters indicated they would contribute 5 percent of their income to cut European migration to zero. More than half of Brexiteers are willing to pay at least 3 percent of their income to reduce European net migration from the current 185,000 to under 80,000. The average person who voted Conservative in the 2015 General Election is willing to stump up 2.5 percent of their pay packet to reduce European immigration to half its current level."

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/hard-brexit-only-if-its-free/

SusanWalker · 19/07/2018 08:01

I agree that the use of words needs to be challenged. When they were grilling the PM I noticed that Bernard Jenkins called it a WTO brexit. It needs to be called a crash and burn brexit, because that's what it is. Calling it a WTO brexit makes it sound planned and organised when it's anything but.

I also think this is why Sarah Woolaston was pushing for the government to give planning advice and warnings to the general public and not just business. I see so many people say just leave and go to WTO terms, they don't have a clue about the consequences. Because JRM and his ilk have told them it will all be fine, when it won't.

SusanWalker · 19/07/2018 08:07

news.sky.com/story/amp/police-forces-are-failing-hate-crime-victims-11441276?__twitter_impression=true

Police forces across Britain are failing victims of hate crimes, a report has found.

A major review, the first of its kind, found victims have been let down after being targeted because of their race, religion, sexual orientation or disability.

And the report warns police must address these failings in their response to hate crime, ahead of an expected post-Brexit surge in attacks.

RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 08:08

Sam Morgan @ samjamesmorgan
Brexit Paper translation nightmare: native speakers find mistake after mistake in official docs, criticise some as “unreadable”
www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/translations-of-british-brexit-plan-provoke-ridicule/
Translations of British Brexit plan provoke ridicule

I'd heard we'd translated into every EU language, but they'd spelt German Deutsch rather than Deutsche and for some inexplicable reason forgotten Swedish. That should have been an alarm bells shouldn't it? We were trying to be clever. Why didn't we stick to doing what the British do best and just put it out in English?

Facepalm

EURACTIV.com
HomeNewsPoliticsBrexitTranslations of British Brexit plan provoke ridicule
Translations of British Brexit plan provoke ridicule
By Sam Morgan | EURACTIV.com 6:41 (updated: 7:51)

The Brexit White Paper has been translated into 22 languages, to varying degrees of effect. [DExEU]

The UK government has taken the somewhat unprecedented step of translating the executive summary of its Brexit White Paper into 22 European languages.

That move has been interpreted by many Brussels officials as an attempt to bypass the European Commission’s negotiating team, led by former French Commissioner Michel Barnier, and appeal directly to national capitals.

The Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU), previously overseen by MP David Davis before his resignation, has been working with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) on the translation effort.

But this alleged olive branch gesture has been met with ridicule after translation experts and native speakers discovered that there are numerous mistakes and irregularities in at least a few of the translations.

May's Brexit blueprint faces backlash after sacrificing services
Even though Theresa May’s Brexit White Paper prompted a furious reaction from a large section of her Conservative party, not to mention a broadside from US President Donald Trump, not everyone was unhappy with it.

In Barnier’s native French, a ‘principled Brexit’ is translated as ‘un Brexit vertueux’, which many Francophones are unhappy with because it changes the meaning of the original by adding an increased moral element to the term.

In the Croatian version as well, the term used for the United Kingdom is ‘Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo’, even though it has been out of use for a number of years in official documents. ‘Ujedinjena Kraljevina’ is the current accepted version.

One Welsh speaker told EURACTIV that the Welsh version uses the word ‘cenhadaeth’ to denote the mission of an organisation but pointed out that another meaning of ‘cenhadaeth’ is ‘religious evangelism’

And

But it is in the German version where irregularities have been spotted the most. For a start, on the Department for Exiting the European Union’s White Paper homepage, the link to the German text was wrongly labelled as ‘Deutsche’ when the correct spelling is without an ‘e’. It was later corrected.

The names of Estonia and Finland were also incorrectly spelled, as was Poland’s although the Polish version has now been unpublished from the website.

We have to write and understand translation to make trade deals and ensure there is nothing lost in translation.

How?!

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annandale · 19/07/2018 08:08

'hitherto assumed to be readily soluble'

'hitherto neither thought or talked about by anyone at Westminster and I miss those days'

Fixed it for you Boris.

lonelyplanetmum · 19/07/2018 08:13

It would be laughable ,if it was not so not funny.

Lets combine the facts of an underlying willingness to sacrifice, plus the successive popularities of Boris, and now Jake Rees Mogg.

This means there are some of the great unwashed who are prepared to trust JRM and his cronies with an extra 5% of their pay packet.This just so they can sit in their sitting room, just knowing that there are less Polish people arriving.

Looking at both these facts means there is little hope.

I may be tired (due to the ferrying of older DD and friends back from the airport) but my hopes are fading.We are powerlessly in hock due to a toxic combination of foolish voters and a right wing coup. This isn't going to go into reverse,
unless a political alternative rises phoenix like and now.