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Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

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BrexitWife · 19/07/2018 08:16

Another thing that use cannot see working in a No Deal situation is the situation of EU citizens.
The (un)famous app was supposed to be ready by now and of course isnt.
A No Deal would mean that the Uk doesn’t have to accept settled status either.
So what would they do with EU citizens to register them/allow them to stay etc... ? Too little time for them to register anywhere. Can’t send them all back. Can’t ask them to apply for a visa as any other country.

boatyardblues · 19/07/2018 08:20

Thank you RTB and others for keeping up the good fight and documenting this shambles so assiduously. Reading RTB’s OP brings home how the Brexit omnishambles has exposed the weakness and disorder in the UK’s political system. It is so damaging to the UK’s ‘brand’ as a mature, stable democracy and a safe place to invest. It’s an own goal that is no doubt visible from space.

20nil · 19/07/2018 08:23

Trying to reason with hard leavers is like trying to reason with religious fanatics. No point.

As for people waking up to the reality of a crash out, they won’t until it’s too late. The Leave vote was built on decades of activism and reinforced by shiny buses and shedloads of propaganda about Turkish invasions and so on. Public option is generally very slow to turn and needs a lot of managing. Unless there is such a shock that panic ensues fast ...

TheElementsSong · 19/07/2018 08:23

extra 5% of their pay packet.This just so they can sit in their sitting room, just knowing that there are less Polish people arriving.

Yes, and again backs up japancat’s point that these people are so xenophobic that they prefer it to food 😮 It’s quite a thought, isn’t it?

BrexitWife · 19/07/2018 08:24

lonely I agree.
And I personally have found the shift in people, their attitude etc... the questioning about ‘so where are you from?’ Followed by ‘how long have you been there?’ And it’s not new. It started well before the referendum.

The U.K. is totally ripe for a far right gouvernement. It won’t call itself far right (that’s oh so not british) but it will be far right. Actually in a lot of ways, it is already far right and has been for a while. Remember all those Conservatives politicians praising Marine LePen and her policies?

Best we can hope for is a transition period to ease things off a bit.
The majority of the population will bow to the 30 or 40% of the population that is so keen on xenophobia/racism/looking down on the poor or the disabled.

BrexitWife · 19/07/2018 08:28

The Leave vote was built on decades of activism and reinforced by shiny buses and shedloads of propaganda

YY to that. It was obvious to me as a foreigner. Things ramped up in the last 10 years or so. So many little things that made me very uncomfortable and everyone just accepted.
Same as the drip drip effect we were talking about re the may very bad sides of Brexit/stockpiling etc....

annandale · 19/07/2018 08:32

I'm sure I'm not the only person in the UK who is 'instinctively' quite conservative and right wing. I wouldn't like to say some of the thoughts that go through my head sometimes as a kneejerk reaction to situations.

But what I expect from my MP, my parliament and the judiciary is that they specifically DON'T run the country according to my worst instincts. I expect deliberation, debate, expertise and a decision which about 99% of the time does NOT accord with my 'common sense' 'gut instincts' because most of the time that's just lizard brain prejudice that I would be ashamed to share with my best friend.

frankiestein401 · 19/07/2018 08:36

r4 today just now - pharma rep made point that trade in medicines was not covered by WTO so no alternative to a deal if (considerable) bidirectional trade was to continue post brexit.

RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 08:39

Yvette Cooper @ YvetteCooperMP
So I tried. I really tried today to find out from the Prime Minister how on earth her Chequers customs plan is going to work. But I failed. Sorry. Still #baffled

David Henig @ davidheniguk
Fortunately I can help with explaining how the Chequers customs plan is going to work.

It won't.

Even if the EU accepted it.

Which they won't.

Don't trust a plan that can't be easily explained.

Paging all journalists, paging all journalists... Why are you not reporting this? Why are you not asking whether Yvette or Theresa is correct.

Instead of being sensationalists and covering Tommy fucking Robinson (which he's delighted at) or Steve Bannon. Hello Newsnight.

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BrexitWife · 19/07/2018 08:42

annandale what happens is the opposite.
When politicians do act according to the ‘worst instincts’, it’s seen as ok because so many people think those things anyway. So they dont feel ‘wrong’ to people.

Peregrina · 19/07/2018 08:45

And yet... a big part of my brain is still thinking “it can’t possibly happen, surely someone will call a halt to this madness”.

Like a boulder rolling down a hill it gathers its own momentum and can't be stopped. As with Fascism in the 1930s, it became too late for normal politics to stop it. It took a War.

DGRossetti · 19/07/2018 08:49

Seems no one owns Brexit either (which could be a blessing in disguise)

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer
prettybird · 19/07/2018 08:53

Re the BBC and its lack of investigative journalism in favour of so called "balance" Hmm

Dh read out a tweet at the weekend which said something along the lines of "If someone says it's raining and someone else says it's sunny, it's not the BBC's job to report both "sides" but instead it should look outside to check for itself" Confused but much more succinctly than that Wink

🐟🎣👑

Mrsr8 · 19/07/2018 08:59

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

lonelyplanetmum · 19/07/2018 09:04

DGR- ref owning Brexit.*
*
Where's Jezza on that poll. He owns a fair share of it all too n'est ce pas

Alltheprettyseahorses · 19/07/2018 09:07

This is interesting from Britain Elects.

Labour leads the Tories in our poll tracker by 1pt:
Lab: 39.3% (+0.4)
Con: 38.4% (-2.7)
LDem: 9.1% (+1.0)
UKIP: 5.5% (+2.2)
Grn: 3.1% (+0.1)
Chgs. w/ 05 Jul

Yet Corbyn trails May by 8 points in YouGov's best PM survey.

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer
DGRossetti · 19/07/2018 09:12

Like a boulder rolling down a hill it gathers its own momentum and can't be stopped. As with Fascism in the 1930s, it became too late for normal politics to stop it. It took a War.

Whatever your feelings about Ben Elton, (and apologies if it was Richard Curtis) but his one-line explanation of why WW1 happened ("Blackadder goes Forth") is so true - and yet it got a laugh Confused

Baldrick: The thing is: The way I see it, these days there's a war on, right? and, ages ago, there wasn't a war on, right? So, there must have been a moment when there not being a war on went away, right? and there being a war on came along. So, what I want to know is: How did we get from the one case of affairs to the other case of affairs?

Edmund: Do you mean "Why did the war start?"

Baldrick: Yeah.

George: The war started because of the vile Hun and his villainous empire-building.

Edmund: George, the British Empire at present covers a quarter of the globe, while the German Empire consists of a small sausage factory in Tanganyika. I hardly think that we can be entirely absolved of blame on the imperialistic front.

George: Oh, no, sir, absolutely not. [aside, to Baldick] Mad as a bicycle!

Baldrick: I heard that it started when a bloke called Archie Duke shot an ostrich 'cause he was hungry.

Edmund: I think you mean it started when the Archduke of Austro-Hungary got shot.

Baldrick: Nah, there was definitely an ostrich involved, sir.

Edmund: Well, possibly. But the real reason for the whole thing was that it was too much effort not to have a war.

George: By Golly, this is interesting; I always loved history...

Edmund: You see, Baldrick, in order to prevent war in Europe, two superblocs developed: us, the French and the Russians on one side, and the Germans and Austro-Hungary on the other. The idea was to have two vast opposing armies, each acting as the other's deterrent. That way there could never be a war.

Baldrick: But this is a sort of a war, isn't it, sir?

Edmund: Yes, that's right. You see, there was a tiny flaw in the plan.

George: What was that, sir?

Edmund: It was bollocks.

Baldrick: So the poor old ostrich died for nothing.

So now, we're here. It's too much effort not to have Brexit.

RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 09:15

The Telegraph @ the telegraph
MPs who fiddle their expenses will be given anonymity under new plans

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/18/mps-fiddle-expenses-will-allowed-remain-anonymous-new-plans/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
MPs who fiddle their expenses will be given anonymity under new plans

Just. Words. Failing.

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RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 09:17

Sally Claire @ klujypop
My fave tutor at uni had a great journalism 101 lesson: “If someone says it’s raining & another person says it’s dry, it’s not your job to quote them both. Your job is to look out of the f**king window and find out which is true.”

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RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 09:18

I may have that particular tweet bookmarked prettybird

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RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 09:23

I understand quote was from a Sheffield university lecturer.

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lonelyplanetmum · 19/07/2018 09:32

MPs who fiddle their expenses will be given anonymity under new plans

BeyondAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngryAngry

So where are we going with this path then. Trumpety? The Marcos? Berlusconi? El Gordo? Lazarenko? Fujimori? Baby Doc Duvalier? Slobodan Milosevic? Ben Ali ? Mobutu?

How far can we go?

prettybird · 19/07/2018 09:37

That's the tweet Red Grin

Thanks! Smile

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 19/07/2018 09:37

Thanks red

DGRossetti · 19/07/2018 09:40

He's back tonight but phoned me to tell me he thinks we should get a chest freezer and forage for fruit in the autumn.

Ugh ! Darked on fruit. Yuck.