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Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

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BrexitWife · 19/07/2018 13:33

So let me get that right.
They are still wanting to get an agreement with the EU BUT are organising everything with the WTO to be able to trade within their guidelines.... ok.....

They’ve never wanted any abreenet with the EU haven’t they?

annandale · 19/07/2018 13:49

Tbh they've played this one intelligently - I am so pleased to hear that someone is preparing for something that I hardly care what it is.

RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 14:15

Alex Wickham @WikiGuido
Paired Tory MP to the Sun: "I didn’t vote and honoured my pair, and he demanded to know why not afterwards."

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
All going swimmingly

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
The instruction to break pair went out
Tory MPs I’ve spoken to never got the alleged “rescind” instruction

www.thesun.co.uk/news/6818384/chief-whip-julian-smith-under-massive-pressure-to-resign-after-tory-mp-accuses-him-of-deceiving-theresa-may-over-a-cheating-row/
Chief Whip Julian Smith under massive pressure to resign after Tory MP accuses him of deceiving Theresa May in vote cheating row

Ahead of crunch votes on Tuesday which could have brought down the Government, The Sun has established Mr Smith gave orders to as many as FIVE Tory MPs to break their pairings – deemed a serious breach of honour

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
This is looking very bad indeed for the Chief Whip.

And not to clever for Leadsom who defeated the government about this nor Brandon Lewis who lied about his role in it.

Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes
Are any bookies taking bets on Julian Smith? Asking for a friend. @LadPolitics @pppolitics @coral @WilliamHill

I doubt he's got too many friends in parliament with how he's been pressuring others...

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RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 14:19

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/pound-sterling-latest-retail-sales-june-bank-of-england-interest-rates-a8454071.html?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1531989722
Pound sterling falls as UK retail sales in June much worse than expected

City of London analysts had expected sales to grow by 0.2 per cent in the month, building on the 1.3 per cent surge in May, but instead they fell by 0.5 per cent

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RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 14:22

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
1. Ready for this explanation? Tory sources say chief whip considered but did not go through with telling any MPs on short term pairs to vote even though they weren’t meant to
2. But Julian Smith did, by accident, they say, tell Brandon Lewis to vote, breaking the long term pair of Jo Swinson
3. This explanation is, shall we say, not exactly likely to calm things down completely - clear Tories couldn’t deny what was going on
4. Update - Tory sources say chief whip considered and might have told some MPs to break their short term pair - but if he did, none of the MPs actually went through with it
5. Chief whips's defence for breaking pairing system is that he only thought they should break a particular kind of pair - this is going to make a lot of people very very cross - one insider says it's 'dog ate my homework'

Well thats me convinced that Julian Smith is a lovely chap I'd like to play cards with, whilst having a pint.

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RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 14:25

Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes
The line changes again... this is looking grim for Julian Smith

On the plus side, there are four Tory MPs who aren't as low as Julian Smith and Brandon Lewis and didn't want to cheat at a parliamentary vote that might change the course of the countries history.

This needs to be acknowledged given the state of the Tory Party atm.

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RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 14:27

Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes
Ladbrokes not taking bets on Julian Smith's demise.

Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics
Sorry, will steer clear of this one

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RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 14:29

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/18/vote-leave-whistleblower-sues-taxpayers-alliance-for-unfair-dismissal?CMP=share_btn_tw
Vote Leave whistleblower sues TaxPayers' Alliance for unfair dismissal

Shahmir Sanni alleges he was fired after revealing concerns about Brexit campaign group

Oh goodie Smile

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RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 14:34

www.ft.com/content/2159c68e-8b4c-11e8-b18d-0181731a0340?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a
UK Treasury to relax border taxes in ‘no-deal’ Brexit
Move would raise concerns over tax evasion but could be needed to keep goods flowing

Speaking to a committee from the House of Lords, Mel Stride, financial secretary to the Treasury, said that if the UK failed to secure an agreement with the EU, the government knew it would have to choose between UK security, revenue collection and keeping goods flowing.

“The priority will be to keep flow moving,” he said.

Security is feeding people tbf.

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placemats · 19/07/2018 14:40

0.5% is not insignificant.

I'm reeling at the thought of 15% on interest rates, just like the old days.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/factcheck+how+high+were+interest+rates+in+the+eighties/2470357.html

placemats · 19/07/2018 14:43

Back to the good old days. Geoffrey Howe's resignation speech.

Howe was a pro Europe MP.

RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 14:44

Robert Peston @Peston
A Tory source confirms @JulianSmithUK did instruct Tory MPs who had “short-term” pairs to break them (though apparently he didn’t succeed), in a frantic attempt to maximize government vote on trade bill (hence text from @JulianSmithUK I quoted in earlier tweet). But...
...he wasn’t trying to break long-term pairs with those on maternity leave. Which is why he apologised to @joswinson when @BrandonLewis broke pair with her. This is a genuine distinction but is it a proper and ethical one? You decide

Well that ok then... Hmm

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DGRossetti · 19/07/2018 14:47

The problem with the pairing debate, is it's like Timothy Evans pardon.

WON'T CHANGE A FUCKING THING

Maybe concentrate energies where something can be done ?

SwedishEdith · 19/07/2018 15:00

Mike Hind@MikeH_PR

I have only just realised that vile reactionary Philip Davies & lying Esther McVey are an item.

I didn't know this either. Shock

RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 15:02

Esther Webber @estwebber
MPs vote 79 to 22 to reject an amendment to ensure complaints against them are routinely published

PATHETIC on multiple levels.

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BrexitWife · 19/07/2018 15:05

Well it seems that MPs are now all about covering their backs and nothing else.
From that to voting to protect their seat, to avoid a GE etc etc

IrenetheQuaint · 19/07/2018 15:06

The pairing debate is extremely important. Messing with agreements like pairing is a classic way for an unscrupulous government to reduce challenge via the voting system. Hopefully the massive publicity now will discourage the whips from trying this sort of stunt again.

Motheroffourdragons · 19/07/2018 15:11

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

DGRossetti · 19/07/2018 15:16

The pairing debate is extremely important. Messing with agreements like pairing is a classic way for an unscrupulous government to reduce challenge via the voting system. Hopefully the massive publicity now will discourage the whips from trying this sort of stunt again.

Like the expenses scandal stopped MPs taking the piss ?

Unless all this blathering about pairing invalidates the vote (the one thing I know it doesn't) then it's just diversionsary.

There's one school of thought (mine) that says just stop pairing now. Endof. No discussions. No confusing "explanations". Just stop pairing now. If Corbyn came out with that, I could warm to him a bit.

In fact, I'll say it here. If "pairing" isn't scrapped, the Tories have gotten away with it. And so emboldened will look to the next "mistake" in their favour.

Scrap pairing, and let the Tories live by the sword they unsheathed. Let them bleat about it being unfair.

But, we all know that won't happen.

RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 15:29

How does the Scottish Parliament handle pairing as Esther Webber made a reference to it not being an issue there.

I have no idea

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frumpety · 19/07/2018 15:43

Can I ask anyone on here who might have knowledge of the system , in the olden days you used to get sent your NI number through the post just before your 16th birthday , yes ?
Can anyone think of a reason why a British citizen might have to travel to their nearest city and be interviewed for over an hour on their own to be allowed one ? Child was born abroad but registered appropriately to be classed as a British citizen, now lives in the UK.

Just realised own child who will be 16 soon has also not received their NI number, was born in the UK to parents also born in the UK and all grandparents born in the UK.

DGRossetti · 19/07/2018 15:52

Well the NI system is hopelessly broken anyway (duplicate NI numbers, and - as a friend found out in 1991 - they can quite happily mix up people with the same surname[1]).

I'm going to go out on a limb, and ask how "British" the surname in question is ?

[1]she discovered when for some reason she had to claim something, and was told - despite working for several years - that she had no NICs. Much noise later, and the Department of Stealth and Total Obscurity (as twas) confirmed via her payslips that she had been paying in.

At least my (and now DWs) name is unique in the UK. Otherwise I'd be worried too.

placemats · 19/07/2018 15:58

I just don't even want to think about the 'pairing' of Esther McVey and Phillip Davies.

Smile
RedToothBrush · 19/07/2018 16:10

Kevin Schofield @ polhomeeditor
Downing Street spokeswoman says the PM still has confidence in Julian Smith and Brandon Lewis, and hasn’t spoken to the chief whip today.

She can't afford to lose Smith. Passing a deal and avoiding a leadership challenge hinges on the whip.

That's why it matters so much.

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OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 19/07/2018 16:28

Given pairings aren't normally allowed in matters of a critical votes, and that Jo Swinson had different pairs over two days I'm guessing the classification of short term pairing means those of the normal pairing arrangements, whereas not short term applies to those that Leadsom agreed to allowing them in not usual circumstances, like the MPs on maternity. Otherwise what the hell does that distinction even mean?