Westministenders: Simple Solutions for Complex Tasks Never Work

[RedToothBrush]

Time for some honesty: Simple Solutions for Complex Task Never Work.

There is a quote which I forget, which relates to authoritarian leaders, that is along the lines of being afraid of the man who offers you an easy solution.

This is the most basic thing of popularism.

What should worry you most is that EVERY politician in the UK is currently offering you this. Even the Remainers.

No one is up to the job. No one is really admitting the complexity of the task.

A People's Vote won't solve that. Its a 'solution' that might not even be possible at this stage due to the time it takes to set one up - which is lost from virtually all conversation. And even then, how the question is phrased is so unbeleivably contensious with parliament so divided its impossible to see how you could get them to agree to the wording.

Its arrogant to assume that remainers would win: there is still no honesty in the debate and the lies persist. Without being honesty in politics, any referendum is a car crash waiting to happen. Its Cameron's mistake and others are in danger of making it again.

The only purpose it may serve, is to start reframing the debate but that will only happen if there is a conscious decision by all to be more honest about the current state of play.

Even the thought that the only way out for politicians is to 'hand it back to the electorate' as they are too crap to sort it their internal squabbles is a nonsense.

The only way you could hand it back to the public in the time frame would be to trigger a General Election, and there is certainly no will to do that from the Tory Party and the numbers are not there to trigger it otherwise. Not that a General Election looks likely to create anything but another hung parliament and thus no way forward.

In terms of May's leadership, its difficult to see what happens next. With Remainers as well as Leavers torpedoing The Turd Way, its dead in the water. May has to go back to the drawing board. But there the alternative will have to align further either with one or the other group: and the EU will NEVER agree to a deal which is closer to the Brexiteer / Davis position.

May either has to go hard, and then compromise later with the EU. Probably to the point which is remainier than The Turd Way anyway or she has to go softer from the off, which would send the Brexiteers into a rage and trigger a leadership contest for certain. If May goes softer, there might be more inclination from Labour to agree to it and save her neck. But even then Labour tribalism runs so deep, its hard to see that happening either. They might promise it, then pull out, causing even more issues later on.

Whether she could survive a leadership contest is still open to debate. There are the numbers to trigger a contest. But to oust her? Don't know. And then there's the question of the alternative. Who steps up and who then answers the question of what the plan is and then how do they get the EU to agree to it?

All the while the clock is ticking.

There is virtually no time for anything now. Everything is up shit creek. The only thing that is likely is No Deal. And thats what the ERG want. They are happy just to cause trouble and obstruct everything from here on in.

But it is entirely possible that faced with that, the EU would agree to an article 50 extension. Provided we asked for one. Who would be brave enough.

If we want a deal and we want Brexit to be successful we HAVE to have an extension.

Otherwise the possibility of remaining also comes back into play.

I don't see a way out in any direction, apart from the death grip of the ERG dragging us all kicking and screaming over the cliff to absoluete chaos.

The ONLY way forward, is a massive swallowing of pride and reigning in of ego to a cross party solution AND compromising with the EU. That seems like a cake hope right now.

Remember the equation that will dominate the next few weeks:

Number of Con votes in 2017 - Number of votes for UKIP in 2015 = How much each Tory MP is shitting themselves about their job.

.

Thanks Red. Still don't quite know where I'm at after the weekend of Trump/private conversations with Lilibet being aired/TM saying the words 'no Brexit at all'...

Thank you red

And wither Labour ?

I am still slightly incredulous to believe there are some Labour MPs - from Thatcher-hit constituencies - that could even contemplate voting with the Tories. On anything.

Any news on companies/services actually leaving yet?
The '£300 million' bone to throw at the aircraft business rather pales into significance when you look at the turnover.

I've often found that simple solutions often don't solve simple problems either

Thanks red

The '£300 million' bone to throw at the aircraft business rather pales into significance when you look at the turnover.

Are we sure it's not already been announced, so is hardly "new" ? (That well known trick of announcing the same spend multiple times).

Alternatively where else is losing £300 million at the same time ?

And finally, how much of that will actually get to the industry after various authorities and bodies have sliced their administration fee off it ?

Many, many years ago, I wrote a short story about a bequest of £1,000,000 to a hospital which only resulted in a plaque detailing the bequest after the various management committees had appropriated varying amounts for administration ...

Thanks for the new thread Red

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/fall-immigration-brexit-cost-uk-finances-billions-global-futures-a8448261.html

The fall in immigration since Brexit is already costing the UK more than £1bn a year, according to new analysis by an independent think tank.

Global Future, which promotes the benefits of openness, calculates that the loss to the public finances is the equivalent of more than 23,000 nurses or 18,000 doctors.

It also claims that meeting the government’s immigration target of “tens of thousands” will also cost Britain £12bn a year by 2023 – which represents 60 per cent of the funds promised to the NHS by Theresa May as part of a so-called “Brexit dividend“.

(contd).

The resignations from the ERG group....aren't they pretty pointless now? May's white paper (the turd way) is surely a prevent-a-no-deal-at-all-costs last gasp which has been run past the EU already. And because it was widely signalled that a steady stream of resignations was planned, hardly any shock value either. (Though given that taxpayers could be refunding MPs 2k for joining the ERG, that's a bit annoying.)There is no point going back to the drawing board because tweaking policy won't satisfy rabid Brexiteers and nutters (J R-M et al) who have no interest in details or deals whatsoever (look at Davis). So if May's plan goes through, it's BINO (and she's probably attempt to hang on). If it doesn't go through, GE, EU delay, hung parliament. But if Labour in charge, hopefully a cross party solution.

@haaretzcom
Ahead of Trump - Putin summit, Germany says can no longer fully rely on U.S. White House

Germany's foreign minister said on Monday Europe could not rely on Donald Trump and needed to close ranks after the U.S. president called the European Union a "foe" with regard to trade

"We can no longer completely rely on the White House," Heiko Maas told the Funke newspaper group. "To maintain our partnership with the USA we must readjust it. The first clear consequence can only be that we need to align ourselves even more closely in Europe."

Its arrogant to assume that remainers would win: there is still no honesty in the debate and the lies persist

You are right. I have a horrid feeling that if there was a 2nd referendum. The vote would still be to leave. Even if that meant huge job losses.

Because they wouldn't equate the job loses with their Leave vote.

You are right. I have a horrid feeling that if there was a 2nd referendum. The vote would still be to leave. Even if that meant huge job losses.

Which is why you'd need to build in some sort of quorum.

Referenda should only be valid if >90% of the electorate vote.

But that's academic, as I really cannot see the UK ever having a referendum in my lifetime. Not only did Camerons cretinism cause this mess. He managed to nail up the emergency exit too.

Sky News Breaking @SkyNewsBreak
Prime Minister Theresa May's spokesman says there is not going to be a second referendum on Brexit under any circumstances

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Ok, this is a fairly compelling indication that there will now be a further referendum

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Whispers around Commons this morning that govt will accept three or maybe even for of Brexiteer amendments - not confirmed but a lot of frantic politicking going on behind scenes

Thanks Red
This is so depressing. I agree about the possibility of a new vote coming out for leave. Although some leavers may change I've heard remainerd plan to vote leave on the basis that the bureaucrats and politicians should have listened to the people first time round.

I think remainers do need to explain that "no deal" still imposed a set of rules and regulations and what WTO rules are.

Sammy Wilson MP @eastantrimmp
Justine Greening’s call for a second vote is a hare-brained, divisive and duplicitous proposal.

Harry Cole@MrHarryCole
DUP tell Justine Greening to join the LibDems.. ouch

Ciaran Jenkins @C4Ciaran
Theresa May’s spokesman: ”There is not going to be a general election.” (March 2017)

Place marking

@BBCBreaking
Donald Trump says he expects to have "extraordinary relationship" with Vladimir Putin as they begin first summit
Must be a kick in the teeth to Brexiteers, Trump only said we have the highest level of special.

Thanks, red

imo, a Withdrawal Agreement specifying transition is more likely than an extension:

• It would avoid the EU having to put up with UK MEPs, especially Farage & the Kippers Exending A50 longer than about one month would mean the UK participating in EP elections
• It would give the EU until 31 Dec 2020 to complete removal of the UK from their supply chains and building up the infrastucture for an EU-UK.
• Easier to sell to Brexiters than delaying Brexit itself

BUT
the WA would be very sparse, just specifying a transition deal under PayNoSay - remains as now from EU side, including NI - and saying that further negotiations on the future relatuonship would continue.

Barnier would have to reassure the RoI about the current border remaining unchanegd throughout the transition and that afterwards, from 1 Jan 2021, there would be no deep deal without either Norway+ or the NI backstop

• without this backstop,the UK might be able to get a CETA-type deal, no more

Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
PM's spokesman on Chequers agreement: "Cabinet is behind it, businesses have come out to support it and now we need to get on with negotiating with the EU."