Time for some honesty: Simple Solutions for Complex Task Never Work.
There is a quote which I forget, which relates to authoritarian leaders, that is along the lines of being afraid of the man who offers you an easy solution.
This is the most basic thing of popularism.
What should worry you most is that EVERY politician in the UK is currently offering you this. Even the Remainers.
No one is up to the job. No one is really admitting the complexity of the task.
A People's Vote won't solve that. Its a 'solution' that might not even be possible at this stage due to the time it takes to set one up - which is lost from virtually all conversation. And even then, how the question is phrased is so unbeleivably contensious with parliament so divided its impossible to see how you could get them to agree to the wording.
Its arrogant to assume that remainers would win: there is still no honesty in the debate and the lies persist. Without being honesty in politics, any referendum is a car crash waiting to happen. Its Cameron's mistake and others are in danger of making it again.
The only purpose it may serve, is to start reframing the debate but that will only happen if there is a conscious decision by all to be more honest about the current state of play.
Even the thought that the only way out for politicians is to 'hand it back to the electorate' as they are too crap to sort it their internal squabbles is a nonsense.
The only way you could hand it back to the public in the time frame would be to trigger a General Election, and there is certainly no will to do that from the Tory Party and the numbers are not there to trigger it otherwise. Not that a General Election looks likely to create anything but another hung parliament and thus no way forward.
In terms of May's leadership, its difficult to see what happens next. With Remainers as well as Leavers torpedoing The Turd Way, its dead in the water. May has to go back to the drawing board. But there the alternative will have to align further either with one or the other group: and the EU will NEVER agree to a deal which is closer to the Brexiteer / Davis position.
May either has to go hard, and then compromise later with the EU. Probably to the point which is remainier than The Turd Way anyway or she has to go softer from the off, which would send the Brexiteers into a rage and trigger a leadership contest for certain. If May goes softer, there might be more inclination from Labour to agree to it and save her neck. But even then Labour tribalism runs so deep, its hard to see that happening either. They might promise it, then pull out, causing even more issues later on.
Whether she could survive a leadership contest is still open to debate. There are the numbers to trigger a contest. But to oust her? Don't know. And then there's the question of the alternative. Who steps up and who then answers the question of what the plan is and then how do they get the EU to agree to it?
All the while the clock is ticking.
There is virtually no time for anything now. Everything is up shit creek. The only thing that is likely is No Deal. And thats what the ERG want. They are happy just to cause trouble and obstruct everything from here on in.
But it is entirely possible that faced with that, the EU would agree to an article 50 extension. Provided we asked for one. Who would be brave enough.
If we want a deal and we want Brexit to be successful we HAVE to have an extension.
Otherwise the possibility of remaining also comes back into play.
I don't see a way out in any direction, apart from the death grip of the ERG dragging us all kicking and screaming over the cliff to absoluete chaos.
The ONLY way forward, is a massive swallowing of pride and reigning in of ego to a cross party solution AND compromising with the EU. That seems like a cake hope right now.
Remember the equation that will dominate the next few weeks:
Number of Con votes in 2017 - Number of votes for UKIP in 2015 = How much each Tory MP is shitting themselves about their job.