Plan for people who are CEV?

[Curiousmouse]

What is it?

Most of us had our boosters in September and early October.

We know that protection from Omicron is significantly reduced after 10-12 weeks, from a variety of studies.

The government now appears to have decided not to give fourth doses. Surely that means that the most vulnerable people are now ironically the least protected, given most others were vaccinated so much more recently. It's hard to see how we are going to avoid a deluge of CEV people hitting the hospitals. I don't feel confident at all.

(Yes I realise the small number of severely immunosuppressed will get fourth doses, but that isn't the same thing).

I’m CEV and immunocompromised. I’ve had 3 jabs but I’m delayed on my 4th due to a chronic infection and other medical issues. I’m feeling a bit anxious because I’m due the booster/4th jab so I’m minimising any high risk activities like public transport and theatres. Bit fed up but it’s only temporary.

[quote treeflowercat]@rrhuth

No, it is nothing like bloody flu. And the flu vaccine provides protection for longer.

Back in 2020 I'd have agreed with you, but things have changed. I'm not saying it is precisely the same, more that the risks of the two now seem to be comparable rather than Covid being an order of magnitude (ie 10 times or so) more deadly.

Also, I appreciate that the flu isn't trivial to someone who is CEV (and look up the vaccine stats - they're not great for the flu either!) so comparing it to the flu isn't to trivialise it, but to try and place it, and our response, into perspective. The sheer numbers of infections at the moment mean the absolute risk from Covid is worryingly high for someone with CEV, but I don't think ever greater restrictions are the way to deal with it. The only compelling argument for continued testing and isolation rules at the moment is to protect the CEV...

The quickest way to low numbers is to let the wave crash through as fast as we can whilst maintaining critical services and protecting the CEV. Stringing it out by lockdowns and the like just prolong the agony and don't really solving anything.
[/quote]
You can't protect the CEV. So what you're calling for is simply accelerated illness and deaths in that group due to the NHS pressure.

And you are wrong re. covid and flu comparison.

If you don't care if people die, at least just say that.

@Watapalava

I honestly think many CEV have a heightened perceived risk- i know people with cancer, heart disease and over 90 have covid since vax and all been very mild. The data currently does not support the notion that cev are at anywhere near the risk they were last year.

Anecdote does not equal data.

How do you know that the risk has changed since last year? For those who have no response to vaccine, it’s almost virtually the same! The only different for people like me is that we have access to anti virals which obviously is reasuring.

Hopefully most CEV people are taking advice from doctors, the ones with medical training and the person’s medical history in front of them.

I’m severely immunocompromised, I am not shielding but I am avoiding busy places like theatres (which don’t mandate masks or testing - which may be fine for the general population but not for me). I’m not asking for restrictions or expecting other people to modify their behaviour but it stinks when people come on these threads with their own agenda.

I am CEV had third dose in October. The letter said I would get a booster in the Spring.

I currently have Omicron. This is day 5 and I am doing ok. The new drugs are apparently not available yet. I'm isolating but have no symptoms really beyond a bit of nasal congestion and sore muscles.

CEV and immunocompromised here.
I had my third dose in October (turned up for my booster to be told I should have had a third, so they did it then). My booster is booked for Sunday but I have two more days of teaching 180 different students to get through before then!

Staff and students are testing positive at a ridiculous rate.

My prediction is that within a couple of weeks the government will decide people no longer need to isolate with Covid to keep schools open 🙄

The horse has bolted now and I think they’ll just let it rip - but if they’re going to do this they need to allow the vulnerable to shield if they need to and their consultants recommend it.

I'm in Scotland. I had my third primary in October and my booster last week. I received a letter with appointment for my third primary and a text saying I was now eligible for my booster which I booked online. I was eligible 12 weeks following the third vaccine.

@herecomesthsun

No, it isn't like the flu. .Can you stop repeating this tripe please.

Well...

ONS estimated Covid cases in week ending 11 December = 1.092 million

Covid deaths reported for seven days to 4th January = 910

Recognising that deaths follow a few weeks later after cases, there should be a rough correspondence between the two figures, giving a IFR of 0.083%.

This is consistent with The Medical Research Council (MRC) Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge estimates that, in the UK, the fatality rate of Covid is currently around 0.085% (compared to between 0.5 and 1% when Covid was "novel" back in early 2020.)

And this is based on Delta... Omicron won't have translated into fatality stats yet but all the indications are from ventilation and ICU admissions that it causes significantly east severe disease, and it's reasonable to believe the IFR will trend to around the 0.03-0.05% mark. The IFR for flu is around this level.

So whereas Covid pre-vaccine, pre-treatment and pre-omicron was most definitely more deadly than the flu, it seems that Covid js trending towards it in terms of virulence.

That's not to say Covid is trivial any more than to say that flu is trivial to someone who is CEV. I'm merely trying to provide context.

@Bessica1970

The horse has bolted now and I think they’ll just let it rip - but if they’re going to do this they need to allow the vulnerable to shield if they need to and their consultants recommend it.

That's probably the least worst option.

How will shielding be reintroduced, now that the whole infrastructure for it has been dismantled? And what provision for the MH of the adults and children who have had tomdo it fir so long already? And the education of the children, including secondary and tertiary education?

And it's a bit shit to make the outside world too dangerous for several million people (of all ages)

And how would you keep hospitals safe enough for vulnerable patients? Or are you planning to end all cancer investigations, treatments, transplants etc?

@treeflowercat

Depending on the type of disability or illness, Covid can absolutely be more risky to some people than the flu. Is it more risky to all CEV people? Nope. However, there’s a group of people for whom are at much higher risk of complications from Covid (even with vaccines and treatments) than seasonal flu.

[quote treeflowercat]@herecomesthsun

No, it isn't like the flu. .Can you stop repeating this tripe please.

Well...

ONS estimated Covid cases in week ending 11 December = 1.092 million

Covid deaths reported for seven days to 4th January = 910

Recognising that deaths follow a few weeks later after cases, there should be a rough correspondence between the two figures, giving a IFR of 0.083%.

This is consistent with The Medical Research Council (MRC) Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge estimates that, in the UK, the fatality rate of Covid is currently around 0.085% (compared to between 0.5 and 1% when Covid was "novel" back in early 2020.)

And this is based on Delta... Omicron won't have translated into fatality stats yet but all the indications are from ventilation and ICU admissions that it causes significantly east severe disease, and it's reasonable to believe the IFR will trend to around the 0.03-0.05% mark. The IFR for flu is around this level.

So whereas Covid pre-vaccine, pre-treatment and pre-omicron was most definitely more deadly than the flu, it seems that Covid js trending towards it in terms of virulence.

That's not to say Covid is trivial any more than to say that flu is trivial to someone who is CEV. I'm merely trying to provide context.
[/quote]
The presentation of patients with COVID-19 and seasonal influenza requiring hospitalisation differs considerably. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is likely to have a higher potential for respiratory pathogenicity, leading to more respiratory complications and to higher mortality. In children, although the rate of hospitalisation for COVID-19 appears to be lower than for influenza, in-hospital mortality is higher

www.thelancet.com/article/S2213-2600(20)30527-0/fulltext

Apart from that, covid is a novel illness, and some of the high death rate, inconvenience and social issues etc have been to do with that. There has been a huge effort of scientific understanding going on regarding management and outcomes.

And, quite apart from that, it is really unpleasant to come on a threat of people who have been shielding and are now exposed to significant risk of illness, and wrongly tell them that that they are fools afraid of the flu.

So stop doing it.

@nether

“And how would you keep hospitals safe enough for vulnerable patients? Or are you planning to end all cancer investigations, treatments, transplants etc?”

Not sure who this is aimed at because no one on this thread has suggested this course of action. I predicted that the government will ‘let it rip’, not that they should.

I think people are vulnerable in different ways. For some it is about the immune system not working properly, for other scarring on the lung, for yet others the effects of long covid with their condition. And other condition specific considerations. I don't think it's right for people who are not vulnerable in any way to dump generalities on this thread, whether they have a CEV friend or relative or not. They are unlikely to be relevant.

@nether

How will shielding be reintroduced, now that the whole infrastructure for it has been dismantled? And what provision for the MH of the adults and children who have had tomdo it fir so long already? And the education of the children, including secondary and tertiary education?

And it's a bit shit to make the outside world too dangerous for several million people (of all ages)

And how would you keep hospitals safe enough for vulnerable patients? Or are you planning to end all cancer investigations, treatments, transplants etc?

The infrastructure needs to be reinstated in my opinion... it's been done recently so it doesn't have to be devised from scratch.

With regards to numbers, "millions" are no longer so vulnerable that they need to be shielded.... To say that is to imply the vaccine was all but useless! Those that are genuinely CEV despite the vaccine, such as those who are severely immuno-suppressed. We're not talking about the numbers pre-vaccine.

As for the world not being safe enough... we're there already and many would have said we were even before the current wave. Nothing short of a severe lockdown would have a chance of suppressing numbers to "safe" levels, and those levels will rise as soon as these are softened however many HEPA filters are installed or mask mandates enforced. Better to let the non-CEV take "the hit" and for numbers to be allowed to naturally fall, which if Soutb Africa is anything to go by, would take 4-6 weeks....so nothing like the months and months of the previous shielding.

Have been given a date for 2nd booster (Scotland) as CEV. Am not taking it - you can have mine.

With regards to numbers, "millions" are no longer so vulnerable that they need to be shielded....

Wha definitions are you using? And what are the estimated numbers in your proposed group?

People are too integrated in society to be completely shielded; what about families with CEV parents for example.

& South Africa's wave seems to have had a different course to that in Europe - they have a younger population, it is summer there etc

I don't think a complete lockdown would work, and if we wanted to try that we have missed the time to have one that would give the best outcome in reducing cases.

It would be very reassuring to have some more clarity on what would happen if I get covid and how I would access support/ getting antivirals etc.

It would be good if my children had been offered vaccination in a more timely way and if some thought had been given to the risks that families face.

Blended schooling for CEV families that want it would be quite good.

That sort of thing.

Nothing short of a severe lockdown would have a chance of suppressing numbers to "safe" level

I disagree with you on that

@nether

Nothing short of a severe lockdown would have a chance of suppressing numbers to "safe" level

I disagree with you on that

I’m with you @nether

I suspect there is more we can do without increasing restrictions. I think neither more restrictions nor lockdowns are the answer.

to those CEV with covid.

I'm ignoring the 'debaters' & ploppers. They are tiresome.

I am very glad about the antivirals, but sorry to hear about the PP's bank hol experience.

I agree @Mickarooni

Personally I would be happy with just a fourth vaccination. I'd then feel safer till spring, and worry less about whatever else is decided. I don't think this should be a big ask.

Nothing short of a severe lockdown would have a chance of suppressing numbers to "safe" level

Addenbrookes Hospital found you can do it with air filtration.

@nether

Nothing short of a severe lockdown would have a chance of suppressing numbers to "safe" level

I disagree with you on that

China is struggling to contain Omicron in Xi'an despite ultra strict restrictions and very high compliance... I'd be interested to know what you think would work!

@Kjcf

Your right it’s not like flu. For a lot of people it’s more like a cold!!

You do know that this thread is about people who are clinically vulnerable, in fact C extremely V in many cases?!

Your comment isn't really appropriate for this thread.

Fwiw covid for me was not like a cold or flu. I've never been rushed to hospital with a high risk of heart attack or stroke when I've had flu or a cold in the past.