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Original poster

Modelling released Christmas Eve on return to Step 2

161 replies

bathsh3ba · 25/12/2021 08:17

I've been really rattled by the release of new modelling on Christmas Eve of all days about the option of moving to 50% or 100% of Step 2 from either 28 Dec or 1 Jan for 2 weeks, 6 weeks or 3 months in England.

They acknowledge there are still a lot of unknowns but of course their data shows the longer and harder you lock down the fewer hospitalisations and deaths (even I could tell you that). But they don't consider the impact of it on wellbeing or anxiety which ONS data already shows is rocketing again.

As a reminder Step 2 means no household mixing inside. This is my key bugbear. I wouldn't even mind rule of 6 indoors as long as I could see a non-bubble friend or family member in my home.

I keep trying to tell myself it's a tactic to encourage boosters and that if Scotland, Wales and NI haven't gone as far as no indoor mixing, England won't. But I can't shake the feeling of dread now.

OP posts:
ColettesEarrings · 25/12/2021 08:23

Meh. People simply won't obey zero household mixing anymore. Few will put up with that again. So yes, perhaps we won't be able to do it in public hospitality venues, but I'll damn well have a friend over for coffee.

Flapjacker48 · 25/12/2021 08:24

Gov can say it but people just won't comply with no household mixing

BigSandyBalls2015 · 25/12/2021 08:26

I will completely ignore any no mixing rule … that boat has sailed and there will never be the same level of conformity again.

Original poster
bathsh3ba · 25/12/2021 08:26

My friends and family won't break any rules so I won't have a great deal of choice.

OP posts:
N4ish · 25/12/2021 08:27

Agree, there will be no point introducing any ‘rules’ on household mixing, people just won’t adhere to them. The behavioural psychologists advising the government must be aware of that.

Overthebow · 25/12/2021 08:31

Yes no point in them implementing no mixing rules, no one will comply. Everyone I know stuck to the rules previously but everyone has said enough now and they won’t do it this time. There’s no way I will do it.

Original poster
bathsh3ba · 25/12/2021 08:34

Apparently the psychologists think they will get previous levels of compliance.

OP posts:
WhiteXmas99 · 25/12/2021 08:41

…with a highly infectious variant a lockdown will probably flatten the curve of hospital admissions which will make the wave easier for the NHS to deal with. Not convinced that fewer people will catch it in the long run.

milly74 · 25/12/2021 08:41

@bathsh3ba

Apparently the psychologists think they will get previous levels of compliance.
well they really are in dream land aren't they Being ruled by shady psychlogists seeking compliance....
Waxonwaxoff0 · 25/12/2021 08:42

@bathsh3ba

Apparently the psychologists think they will get previous levels of compliance.
Doubt it. I expect people have been careful in the run up to Christmas because they want to see family, but after Christmas will be a different story.
DarknessAndLight · 25/12/2021 08:48

More and more people are realising the way the media and government are using fear tactics and using incorrect data, sensationalist headlines or worst case scenario modelling to achieve this.
How many people would have had first hand experience of omicron by January and recovered?
The trust is fading fast.

Pinkflipflop85 · 25/12/2021 08:55

If they think I'm going to stop visiting family indoors they can get to fuck.

TheKeatingFive · 25/12/2021 08:57

Apparently the psychologists think they will get previous levels of compliance.

They don't.

Because they're highly trained professionals and not stupid.

However it would damage the cause to make that expectation known, so they're careful with what's shared with the public.

baroqueandblue · 25/12/2021 09:03

@TheKeatingFive

Apparently the psychologists think they will get previous levels of compliance.

They don't.

Because they're highly trained professionals and not stupid.

However it would damage the cause to make that expectation known, so they're careful with what's shared with the public.

Yep. So careful we already know what they've got planned and are preparing not to cooperate Confused
TheKeatingFive · 25/12/2021 09:07

So careful we already know what they've got planned and are preparing not to cooperate

The behavioural scientists aren't leaking the plans, that's the government.

The BS are being careful not to say that they expect less compliance, because that in itself would drive even less compliance.

milly74 · 25/12/2021 09:08

These behavioural scientists want PERMANENT restrictions. They can get to fuck

MrsLargeEmbodied · 25/12/2021 09:09

but it is more transmittable, so worrying.

Tippexy · 25/12/2021 09:10

It’s all very well saying “no one will comply” but some of us have family and friends who will comply, which is the position I think the OP is in. I know it’s crazy, but OP might even want to comply herself!

So what do we do for three months then?

baroqueandblue · 25/12/2021 09:10

The BS are being careful not to say that they expect less compliance, because that in itself would drive even less compliance.

Your thinking reminds me of how religious people second guess God's plan.

milly74 · 25/12/2021 09:11

@Tippexy

It’s all very well saying “no one will comply” but some of us have family and friends who will comply, which is the position I think the OP is in. I know it’s crazy, but OP might even want to comply herself!

So what do we do for three months then?

Get 3 months off for being good compliant people then another vaccine and another 3 months locked up?
rainrainraincamedowndowndown · 25/12/2021 09:11

To me, way how the English people think is a great mystery. So many cases, so many death, but it feels like world need to go on without any restrictions.

My native country hasn't had proper lock down. Cases are low, death are low, though people seems to comply with things like mask wearing and sd without mandate. The daily news is very sombre. But at the same time they just announced economy is recovering to pre covid times.

ferretface · 25/12/2021 09:16

Step 2 is bollocks because it prevents outdoor group sport 😓 I'll be so depressed if running club, parkrun etc have to stop.

milly74 · 25/12/2021 09:17

@rainrainraincamedowndowndown

To me, way how the English people think is a great mystery. So many cases, so many death, but it feels like world need to go on without any restrictions.

My native country hasn't had proper lock down. Cases are low, death are low, though people seems to comply with things like mask wearing and sd without mandate. The daily news is very sombre. But at the same time they just announced economy is recovering to pre covid times.

We don't need restrictions and loss of our civil liberties for what frankly for many is a cold anyway the restrictions aren't exactly working are they? Two years in and counting as for the vaccine - waste of time and money
puppeteer · 25/12/2021 09:24

It’s such a let down that after nearly two years of this, still the only way of dealing with it is to remove freedoms.

It really feels like no one is pushing the modellers to think about alternatives. They’re being so lazy to jump to restrictions each time.

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 25/12/2021 09:27

I’m comply. So will everyone l know. Including younger people.

I never seem to know anyone like the people on here saying they won’t do it.