Modelling released Christmas Eve on return to Step 2

[bathsh3ba]

I've been really rattled by the release of new modelling on Christmas Eve of all days about the option of moving to 50% or 100% of Step 2 from either 28 Dec or 1 Jan for 2 weeks, 6 weeks or 3 months in England.

They acknowledge there are still a lot of unknowns but of course their data shows the longer and harder you lock down the fewer hospitalisations and deaths (even I could tell you that). But they don't consider the impact of it on wellbeing or anxiety which ONS data already shows is rocketing again.

As a reminder Step 2 means no household mixing inside. This is my key bugbear. I wouldn't even mind rule of 6 indoors as long as I could see a non-bubble friend or family member in my home.

I keep trying to tell myself it's a tactic to encourage boosters and that if Scotland, Wales and NI haven't gone as far as no indoor mixing, England won't. But I can't shake the feeling of dread now.

@MrsLargeEmbodied

but it is more transmittable, so worrying.

Not worrying if it's a lot milder like it seems to be. Most people I know who've got it are asymptomatic.

but more people will get it, more people self isolating, not working, that is the issue
and who knows whether it is mild for All

@puppeteer

It’s such a let down that after nearly two years of this, still the only way of dealing with it is to remove freedoms.

It really feels like no one is pushing the modellers to think about alternatives. They’re being so lazy to jump to restrictions each time.

What alternatives are there, can you share your thoughts?

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

I’m comply. So will everyone l know. Including younger people.

I never seem to know anyone like the people on here saying they won’t do it.

Sorry but you are a fool

Are bubbles still allowed as they were at the start of this year?

Yes what are the alternatives? To me the only alternative is that everyone takes the vaccine. Can’t believe there are still people who are not vaccinated. They should stay indoors!

Not convinced that fewer people will catch it in the long run.

Lockdown is not to prevent people catching it, it is to stop everyone catching it at the same time.

@SadandSaggy

Yes what are the alternatives? To me the only alternative is that everyone takes the vaccine. Can’t believe there are still people who are not vaccinated. They should stay indoors!

The one that is effective for 10 weeks????

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

I’m comply. So will everyone l know. Including younger people.

I never seem to know anyone like the people on here saying they won’t do it.

Really? Genuinely curious to know at what point you’d say ‘No, enough.’

I will mostly comply but I will either bubble with PIL or send the primary aged dc to school (they are classed as vulnerable), neither of which we did during the last lockdown. Ds2 tried to kill himself last lockdown and I won't let myself get stretched so thin again with work, caring and schoolwork that I didn't notice how desperate he was.

Household restriction guidance is useless at this point and totally unenforceable.

It's a question of whether England follows the sort of measures Scotland and Wales have put on hospitality into the new year.

They can't stop household mixing but they can stop people going into nightclubs if they're shut.

@bathsh3ba

Apparently the psychologists think they will get previous levels of compliance.

People socialise less in January anyway. It's a bunker down month.

Investing in surge capacity seems obvious.

I know an argument is that it can’t be done quickly. But we’ve had months since the great unlocking, and not a single model has advised capacity over restrictions. Where’s the long term thinking?

Or making inter-hospital transfers routine. (Rather than an exceptional creative tactic.)

And allowing NHS staff that have covid but no or few symptoms back in to work.

To renew the agreement with private providers.

I feel no time has even been spent looking.

The "no household mixing" rule can get to fuck. I shall decide who I have in my home, not some jumped up twerp in a suit.

They acknowledge there are still a lot of unknowns but of course their data shows the longer and harder you lock down the fewer hospitalisations and deaths (even I could tell you that). But they don't consider the impact of it on wellbeing or anxiety which ONS data already shows is rocketing again

I actually think this isn’t the case.

When this is all over. I think we are going to have a similar amount of deaths just spread over the years, (maybe even more) than if we hadn’t locked down at all.
All that is happening when we lock down is prolong the situation and kill people other ways

surely its the pubs/cinemas/theatres/nightclubs/football matches?
anywhere where people mix

@bathsh3ba

Apparently the psychologists think they will get previous levels of compliance.

You mean like the last lockdown where very few took any notice and just carried on

@MrsLargeEmbodied

surely its the pubs/cinemas/theatres/nightclubs/football matches? anywhere where people mix

And those things are a massively important part of the economy and wellbeing.

There are no winners when restrictions are introduced. You might stop a few infections. But with the transmission so easy, it's going to spread whatever we do, at best we can slow it but at a hugely damaging cost

@milly74, all effectiveness has not worn out after 10 weeks. Such a stupid argument for not getting the vaccine. NHS staff are also fed up treating these idiots. I rather the government paid for. 4 th round of vaccines than spending money on paying furlough too.

@Whichjab

Not convinced that fewer people will catch it in the long run.

Lockdown is not to prevent people catching it, it is to stop everyone catching it at the same time.

Isnt that the only way out of this. If enough people catch what seems to be a much milder variant at the same time then there is no one to infect and this shit will be over.

I think the world needs to stop locking down and work together to get this over with.

According to SAGE we should be having 2 million people per day testing positive. This would mean that we would all be immune by mid January and the virus wouldn’t have anywhere to go.

Locking down is just going to prolong everything and lead to more unnecessary deaths.

@DarknessAndLight

More and more people are realising the way the media and government are using fear tactics and using incorrect data, sensationalist headlines or worst case scenario modelling to achieve this. How many people would have had first hand experience of omicron by January and recovered? The trust is fading fast.

Odd. I thought that as time goes by and we see more of the data more and more people were realising that the modelling is unconnected to the political agenda and the government makes decisions based on the health threat and the economic threat balance. Modelling the best case scenario would be absolutely fucking useless.

Sensationalism comes from those who often wilfully misrepresent the data. The data is freely available for reasons of transparency. So it is really some for people with little understanding of the rigours of data analysis to make some very odd conjectures, and then scare themselves, get very angry.

Or decide that everyone will have had it and nobody will die... missing the wider point entirely!

are you all scientists?

That's the tipping point @Kennykenkencat, the point of the modelling.

When the modelling shows that the balance has tipped and we would be best off 'letting it rip' then I would imagine that's what will happen.

Maybe the next set of data will show that... we can hope.

I would 'comply' and I would make my own risk assessment. I know that the making your own risk assessment is scoffed at but its common sense.
I work from home (so am fortunate) therefore I would see my elderly parents if I've not mixed for a week or so. If I go out and meet a friend in close contact I just hang back from seeing them.

I’ve said before on these threads, but I am happy to personally comply. I’ll not socialise, etc. What I won’t do is prevent my child from seeing peers. He is 5 years old and an only child. At one point, this time last year, Welsh rules stated he wasn’t even allowed to play in a playground/park. I’d hurry him passed our local ones and he didn’t see another child or human other than DP and I for a month/five weeks over Christmas. It was too hard on him and had had repercussions for the rest of the year. Never again.