Modelling released Christmas Eve on return to Step 2

[bathsh3ba]

I've been really rattled by the release of new modelling on Christmas Eve of all days about the option of moving to 50% or 100% of Step 2 from either 28 Dec or 1 Jan for 2 weeks, 6 weeks or 3 months in England.

They acknowledge there are still a lot of unknowns but of course their data shows the longer and harder you lock down the fewer hospitalisations and deaths (even I could tell you that). But they don't consider the impact of it on wellbeing or anxiety which ONS data already shows is rocketing again.

As a reminder Step 2 means no household mixing inside. This is my key bugbear. I wouldn't even mind rule of 6 indoors as long as I could see a non-bubble friend or family member in my home.

I keep trying to tell myself it's a tactic to encourage boosters and that if Scotland, Wales and NI haven't gone as far as no indoor mixing, England won't. But I can't shake the feeling of dread now.

I'm baffled by all of these people saying they want/need restrictions - they must realise that this will be in place for each and every winter at least. All the families fretting and arguing today about testing/ the vulnerable - are they going to do that every year because covid is here to stay and it is as good as it is going to get vaccine wise.

Hopefully the back benchers will win over the behavioural Scientists.

Nope, no way am I going to comply. I am triple vaccination mated had Covid pre vaccine and post vaccine, neither infection was serious, quite happy to have omicron if it further boosts my immune system.
I’ve worked frontline healthcare since the beginning of the pandemic and I’m no longer willing to sacrifice my mental well-being or that of my family.
I will protect my patients by following current SOP and isolate if I test positive. But as for another lockdown, no chance.

I’m baffled by people that don’t mind NHS staff facing tons of patients they can’t safely look after as they have no staff

@Angrymum22 I can’t imagine any frontline worker saying that right now.

@doublemonkey that’s dated 18th December

I won’t be complying.

I find it depressing that in the UK the suggested approach when restrictions are considered is always a complete ban on household mixing. Other countries in Europe, often held up on here as a good example of what should be done, generally seem to allow a limited amount of household mixing. For example, the Netherlands' recent lockdown and Germany's additional measures both still allow a small amount of indoor mixing. I feel there'd be more buy in if there was more recognition of how important it is for people to have a small amount of social contact, rather than lurching straight to complete draconian bans.

My reason is the 12 mnth delay to my routine screening mammogram. I was diagnosed with breast cancer in August. Should have had mammogram in May 2020. Fortunately it had not spread but would have been picked up in 2020. I have been very lucky but a lot of women have not. Thirty percent of breast cancer is picked up through routine screening, a friend of mine had her first mammogram post fifty this year and has been diagnosed with advanced aggressive stage 4. She will be lucky to see next Christmas. This is going to be a common problem due to the shutting down of screening programmes for over 12 mnths.
The reality of lockdown is that we may save a few lives at the expense of loosing many more long term.
Covid kills predominantly elderly people who are in poor health, the obese and people with underlying health problems. It is tragic that many people who survive it will go on to die of treatable diseases whose diagnosis has been delayed.

So many of us have had covid now and the combination of natural immunity and vaccines should be enough now for us to make our own sensible decisions without much risk.

I find it interesting that on every ‘schools’ thread, the cry is ‘the schools must be the last to close / everything else must close before the schools / won’t everyone think of the children / children have suffered enough’, but when there is a suggestion of putting this into practice in ways that impinge on people’s lives, the instant reaction is ‘no, we won’t comply’.

IF restrictions need to be put in place BUT people don’t comply, THEN the government will have to put restrictions on the things they can control centrally, like schools and universities. IF restrictions are needed, then we either have to move on from glib phrases about ‘putting the children first’ to actually do something that we nay personally find difficult or we have to admit that we are only willing for ‘others’ to compromise to prioritise children and their education.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow
I never seem to know anyone like the people on here saying they won’t do it.

Me neither @ArseIn, just mindless idiots on here. They manage it in many other countries, plus masks etc, etc, just seems that British snowflakes think they’re different and can’t cope.

@DarknessAndLight

So many of us have had covid now and the combination of natural immunity and vaccines should be enough now for us to make our own sensible decisions without much risk.

Should it?

Have you called Sir Patrick and told him that?

@HoardingSamphireSaurus

Modelling should be done using data. It shouldn't be done based a desired outcome.

Modelling to frighten people into compliance is extremely dangerous and irresponsible. I'd prefer we were treated like adults and allowed to behave as such. More and more people are realizing that the narrative being pushed is total bull.

@Angrymum22

My reason is the 12 mnth delay to my routine screening mammogram. I was diagnosed with breast cancer in August. Should have had mammogram in May 2020. Fortunately it had not spread but would have been picked up in 2020. I have been very lucky but a lot of women have not. Thirty percent of breast cancer is picked up through routine screening, a friend of mine had her first mammogram post fifty this year and has been diagnosed with advanced aggressive stage 4. She will be lucky to see next Christmas. This is going to be a common problem due to the shutting down of screening programmes for over 12 mnths. The reality of lockdown is that we may save a few lives at the expense of loosing many more long term. Covid kills predominantly elderly people who are in poor health, the obese and people with underlying health problems. It is tragic that many people who survive it will go on to die of treatable diseases whose diagnosis has been delayed.

I am so sorry for what you went through but as Chris Whitty says how are people still actually thinking like this.

@cantkeepawayforever

I find it interesting that on every ‘schools’ thread, the cry is ‘the schools must be the last to close / everything else must close before the schools / won’t everyone think of the children / children have suffered enough’, but when there is a suggestion of putting this into practice in ways that impinge on people’s lives, the instant reaction is ‘no, we won’t comply’.

IF restrictions need to be put in place BUT people don’t comply, THEN the government will have to put restrictions on the things they can control centrally, like schools and universities. IF restrictions are needed, then we either have to move on from glib phrases about ‘putting the children first’ to actually do something that we nay personally find difficult or we have to admit that we are only willing for ‘others’ to compromise to prioritise children and their education.

Totally agree!

[quote Fishlipandtoeface]@doublemonkey that’s dated 18th December[/quote]
It shows how they're making their models, which are not based on real world data.

I have covid now (again. 3 vaccinations, 2 infections ). Out of isolation on Tuesday.
I will never again be told who I can and can’t have in my house.

I've had 3 vaxxes, 1 infection and have always followed the rules but I really hope they stop short of banning all indoor household mixing, it would feel like such a waste and backwards step. I don't think Tory rebels will make a difference as Labour just vote it all through.

the cry is ‘the schools must be the last to close […] but when there is a suggestion of putting this into practice in ways that impinge on people’s lives, the instant reaction is ‘no, we won’t comply’.

It’s because they haven’t really tried very hard, and people are feeling their mental health, businesses, and right to lead a fulfilled private life, is being given away too easily.

If some of the bad things started to actually happen, folk might be more forgiving. But ironically, as some have pointed out, previous lockdown efforts have actually made things worse in some ways. Trust in models and predictions aren’t high anymore.

i don't think Tory rebels will make a difference as Labour just vote it all through.

It's not about getting it through the commons, it's about whether it would prompt a leadership challenge.

Not sure anything would trigger that at the moment.

Nobody would step forward until there was a definite end in sight. No-one, any party.

Not sure anything would trigger that at the moment.

I think that's naive.

After years of rolling lockdowns increasing numbers of people no longer care and will make the minimum effort only to avoid fines, while resenting it bitterly.

[quote LadyPenelope68]**@ArseInTheCoOpWindow
I never seem to know anyone like the people on here saying they won’t do it.

Me neither @ArseIn, just mindless idiots on here. They manage it in many other countries, plus masks etc, etc, just seems that British snowflakes think they’re different and can’t cope.[/quote]
Obviously every single person you know has felt confident enough to share their unvarnished views with you, and give you a comprehensive account of their behaviours during every lockdown.

@bathsh3ba

I've had 3 vaxxes, 1 infection and have always followed the rules but I really hope they stop short of banning all indoor household mixing, it would feel like such a waste and backwards step. I don't think Tory rebels will make a difference as Labour just vote it all through.

Some of the political decisions made has really thrown and confused my own understanding and assumptions. For decisions around covid restrictions, I’m thankful for the stance and opinions of the Tory rebels.