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Original poster

Modelling released Christmas Eve on return to Step 2

161 replies

bathsh3ba · 25/12/2021 08:17

I've been really rattled by the release of new modelling on Christmas Eve of all days about the option of moving to 50% or 100% of Step 2 from either 28 Dec or 1 Jan for 2 weeks, 6 weeks or 3 months in England.

They acknowledge there are still a lot of unknowns but of course their data shows the longer and harder you lock down the fewer hospitalisations and deaths (even I could tell you that). But they don't consider the impact of it on wellbeing or anxiety which ONS data already shows is rocketing again.

As a reminder Step 2 means no household mixing inside. This is my key bugbear. I wouldn't even mind rule of 6 indoors as long as I could see a non-bubble friend or family member in my home.

I keep trying to tell myself it's a tactic to encourage boosters and that if Scotland, Wales and NI haven't gone as far as no indoor mixing, England won't. But I can't shake the feeling of dread now.

OP posts:
HoardingSamphireSaurus · 25/12/2021 10:19

@MrsLargeEmbodied

are you all scientists?
Some people on some of these threads are. Some, like me, in a different field, but with lots of experience with data analysis. Early on we also had some who worked on epidemiology and a virologist. But I know at least one of them got sick and tired of trying their best to answer all the questions only to be met with a daft response about DNA etc.

Many people have learned a bit more about data handling over the last 2 years. Sadly this has been a 2 edged sword and as many are further scared or angered as relieved and reassured.

And that applies to journalists as much as anyone else.

Waxonwaxoff0 · 25/12/2021 10:21

@MrsLargeEmbodied

are you all scientists?
Nope. I'm a human being that is going to make my own risk assessments.
MrsLargeEmbodied · 25/12/2021 10:21

thanks @HoardingSamphireSaurus

take all posts with a pinch of salt

HesterShaw1 · 25/12/2021 10:23

@MrsLargeEmbodied

but it is more transmittable, so worrying.
Look at the evidence from South Africa
MrsLargeEmbodied · 25/12/2021 10:25

thanks @HesterShaw1

MrsLargeEmbodied · 25/12/2021 10:25

dont panic folks

MrsLargeEmbodied · 25/12/2021 10:26

i am sorry you have a feeling of dread @bathsh3ba

no point in worrying before you know

doublemonkey · 25/12/2021 10:33

Anyone who's concerned by the modelling should probably read this s
Spectator article. And then not be concerned. The models aren't based on actual data...

www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee

Fallagain · 25/12/2021 10:34

I wouldn’t obey no mixing inside and I have followed all the other rules and been very careful. I would be more comfortable and safer mixing with a small group of people at home rather than mixing with them in a busy restaurant or club.

gettingolderandgrumpy · 25/12/2021 10:38

@bathsh3ba

Apparently the psychologists think they will get previous levels of compliance.
No chance I know people that have died this ( not covid ) and to think that last year was their last Christmas is sad . People say it’s a quiet Christmas next year will be different but what if your not here next Christmas?.
FourTeaFallOut · 25/12/2021 10:38

No, I'm not complying from here on in. And I'm a fairly compliant person. I get a sweat on when the library books are overdue. But they can get fucked if they think I'm doing it all again.

ElectraBlue · 25/12/2021 10:44

Very silly behaviour at this stage.

Nobody will follow no mixing rules.

The data shows that the new variant is much milder. We can't keep shutting things down simply for the NHS.

Also if you do a bit of digging you can see that a large portion of the stats about people with Covid in hospital are people who were admitted for something different (and were diagnosed with Covid at the hospital) or who caught it while in hospital...

There are vaccines/boosters and this is where the focus should be.

I have seen no urgency from government to try to fund the NHS better in this crisis and to focus on trying to make the most of its resources.
Instead they just always revert back to the lazy, last minute lockdown/restrictions options and expect people just to accept it.

So no, I am triple jabbed and followed previous restrictions but I will ignore any restrictions from now on and I hope MPs get rid of Johnson if he caves in to the Sage nonsense...

PollyIndia · 25/12/2021 10:47

I have a yoga studio and employ 45 freelancers. We would have to close under step 2.
We couldn’t even do meditation classes.
So not only are we not helping the community, but all my teaching and front of house staff are not employed. It is a complete joke. I am absolutely gutted that I am facing this shit again.

PollyIndia · 25/12/2021 10:48

I agree completely electrablue and I wish I could ignore restrictions. But I can’t, the council will shut me down.

Fishlipandtoeface · 25/12/2021 10:54

Where are you reading about this op?

Fishlipandtoeface · 25/12/2021 10:56

Never mind here www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/decision-on-stricter-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday sorry I have been up since 4 with a horrendous chest infection

HoardingSamphireSaurus · 25/12/2021 10:56

[quote doublemonkey]Anyone who's concerned by the modelling should probably read this s
Spectator article. And then not be concerned. The models aren't based on actual data...

www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee[/quote]
The problem with that is that it is quite likely they were talking entirely at cross purposes. The responses from the Sage bloke are literal ... and can equally be read as explaining how the modellers are entirely free of bias, and choice, when it comes to the datasets they model. They have to be so as not to skew data. The interpretation that has been run with is not quite what he meant, us stripped of his context.

Or rather shouldn't be aimed at him but at those who choose the confounding factors that will be modelled. If you asked that committee why they choose what they choose they would have an equally opaque answer as they too rely on data suggestions from others, economists, agronomists, epidemiologists, behaviourists, all sorts of ists.

When I read that I wasn't dismayed or convinced that there was anything underhand. Just that he was explaining how modelling is independent of the process that chooses what is to be modelled.

christmasmiracles · 25/12/2021 10:57

I don't get it. Can't people just be sensible, rather than worrying about following any rule our dumb government makes ? Can't people think for themselves ?

If you are worried about catching it and passing it on, stay at home as much as possible and keep your circle very small. I don't see why the government has to tell me this.

I've always been very worried about catching it and have kept my circle and activities small. Even when we were ' allowed 'to do certain things, I used my own judgement and comfort level and did what I felt was safe and I didn't do the things I felt were unsafe.

Same about things not being ' allowed '. I had no problem seeing very close family during both lock downs. I kept my circle extremely small, always and still do. And so do the people I've seen. It really is just 4 people who all live together, but it really made a difference to us. Everyone else, I have not seen. But that's my own choice and not because it's not allowed.

Can't people just use their own judgement. I don't get it.

StruggleStreet · 25/12/2021 11:08

Most people I know my age (30s) have recently had it so seems like point in us not mixing now.

StruggleStreet · 25/12/2021 11:08

*little point

ilovesooty · 25/12/2021 11:09

@milly74

These behavioural scientists want PERMANENT restrictions. They can get to fuck
Give it a rest.

Permanent? Ridiculous.

TheKeatingFive · 25/12/2021 11:12

I have seen no urgency from government to try to fund the NHS better in this crisis and to focus on trying to make the most of its resources.
Instead they just always revert back to the lazy, last minute lockdown/restrictions options and expect people just to accept it.

Exactly. And let's not forget these are restrictions the have no intention of following themselves.

ilovesooty · 25/12/2021 11:13

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

I’m comply. So will everyone l know. Including younger people.

I never seem to know anyone like the people on here saying they won’t do it.

I don't know people like them in real life either.
refraction · 25/12/2021 11:13

@Kennykenkencat

They acknowledge there are still a lot of unknowns but of course their data shows the longer and harder you lock down the fewer hospitalisations and deaths (even I could tell you that). But they don't consider the impact of it on wellbeing or anxiety which ONS data already shows is rocketing again

I actually think this isn’t the case.

When this is all over. I think we are going to have a similar amount of deaths just spread over the years, (maybe even more) than if we hadn’t locked down at all.
All that is happening when we lock down is prolong the situation and kill people other ways

gh.bmj.com/content/6/8/e006653