Good news re Omicron

[Tryingtryingandtrying]

twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1468985784338366468?t=0RA5_V7CWbGjhgxfNIDbAQ&s=19

All looking pretty positive.

Having had Delta doesn’t prevent infection from Omnicrom

It's not that clear-cut. In practice it's more likely that prior infection will provide protection against severe illness for many even if it doesn't completely guard against a positive test.

www.nytimes.com/article/omicron-coronavirus-variant.html

Not according to this.

Nadhim Zahawi is on sky news now ( hi lights from his tv interview this morning ) and he sounds very bleak , you then listen to another news channel or LBC and you hear from other scientists and it's not nearly as bad.
It's honestly 'doing my head in ' as they say
I went into town earlier on and they were queuing up knee deep at the vaccine centers. That is a good sign.

The NY article days exactly that. Whilst previous infection doesn’t stop you getting infected with Omicron, vaccination or previous infection will reduce the severity of the disease. And that’s what we want.

Says!

Not according to this

That's good news then, it means the much milder cases now seen in SA compared to Delta aren't due to their previous very high natural infection rate.

Thank you Delatron so exactly what I said then.

@MaxNormal

They have a much, much younger population that's far less susceptible to severe cases in the first place

People keep claiming this. While its true that they have a younger population average than the UK, it is not exceptionally young by global standards.

In addition they have the same level of obesity as the UK, high rates of lifestyle induced diseases and on top of that a high burden of HIV and TB.

It’s like the elephant in the room - nobody seems to acknowledge the levels of (often uncontrolled, in poor areas) HIV in SA. All I seem to read is how it’s not a vulnerable population - not age wise, perhaps but in terms of controlled disease and overall lifestyle factors, very much so.

Yes exactly @MaxNormal

Immunity isn't all or nothing, @ArseInTheCoOpWindow (although there are some diseases, like measles, where infection or vaccination provide sterilising immunity that prevents reinfection). Just like immunity from the vaccine does not prevent infection totally, it reduces the risk of infection and the risk of severe disease or death. Natural immunity is likely to have some effect. We are waiting to have enough data to understand how much protection vaccination or prior infection can give.

We aren't in the same position as we were at the beginning of the pandemic where nobody had any immunity or earlier waves where very few people had immunity. Currently over 90% of the UK have COVID antibodies from vaccination or infection. You have to take into account the effect of immunity on preventing infection in the first place and on the severity of symptoms when comparing omicron to previous variants.

I would cautiously suggest it is more likely, if we are seeing less severe symptoms in people with omicron, that it is probably due to existing immunity rather than omicron being less virulent than other variants. The virus isn't milder, our immune response is better.

Nadhim Zahawi is on sky news now ( hi lights from his tv interview this morning ) and he sounds very bleak

Being cynical, he's the vaccine minister... His career progress depends on the successful implementation of the booster programme. The more people he can persuade to get boosted, the better for him. He won't do that by giving breezy new interviews where he downplays Omicron. (I fully support the booster programme btw)

He’s education minister though!

I'm only reporting on his interview this morning on sky news! He sounded concerned, but it's hard as you then listen to someone else and they are much more positive about it.
Who do you believe?

Zahawi was vaccines minister from November 2020 until September 2021.
He is now minister for education.

It’s like the elephant in the room - nobody seems to acknowledge the levels of (often uncontrolled, in poor areas) HIV in SA.

That is also a factor.

I haven't been able to find any stats on testing in SA. I believe private tests are prohibitively expensive (about half a week's salary for those on the lowest incomes). Perhaps any posters from SA might be able to tell us more about the availiblity of free public health COVID tests? I would also guess that those on the lowest incomes (and those most likely to be HIV+ and not receiving treatment) are the least likely to test to avoid self isolation too.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

He’s education minister though!

Whoops... that goes my theory!

Wonder if he’ll be like Gav?🤨

Whoops... that goes my theory!

Regardless, the government needs people to get boosters. Ramping up the fear is always the preferred approach to drive action.

It was mostly men in the queues today at the vaccine center in town that I noticed.
They are powering through them here

@chesirecat99

That's why I am asking the question who the doctor was, *@Delatron*, so I can assess for myself whether they are a credible source and what evidence they are basing that statement on.

I concede I may have a bee in my bonnet about that GP irresponsibly claiming that omicron was mild when she had pretty much nothing to base that on. Look at all the people posting on MN who have bought into her statement that omicron is mild and basing their decisions on whether to get a booster or stick to restrictions on the asssumption that omicron is just a cold, when the truth is, we really don't know. It doesn't help that most people can't get their head around the idea that mild for most and highly transmissible still equals high numbers of cases, which could be a huge public health issue.

On the other hand, if the doctor @Whyevencare heard on LBC actually has some new data and real evidence that omicron is mild, I shall be dancing with joy and cracking open the Christmas this evening.

FWIW, there are plenty of posters on MN who are as qualified, if not more qualified than a GP, to understand and interpret the data.

The doctor was Dr Angelique Coetzee

Thanks, @Whyevencare. I shall put the celebratory back in the fridge in that case and wait for someone who isn't enjoying their 15 minutes of fame and has something more than anecdotal evidence.

ECDC epidemiological update on omicron

“ All cases for which there is available information on severity were either asymptomatic or mild. There have been no Omicron-related deaths reported thus far. These figures should be assessed with caution, as the number of confirmed cases is too low to understand if the disease clinical spectrum of Omicron differs from that of previously detected variants.”

www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/epidemiological-update-omicron-data-12-december

These figures should be assessed with caution, as the number of confirmed cases is too low to understand if the disease clinical spectrum of Omicron differs from that of previously detected variants.

The sample size was 766, @bumbleymummy. You can't really conclude anything much from such a small sample.

I did quote that part for a reason @chesirecat99 :)

SA are a few weeks ahead of us and, as reported above, data from there looks positive so far too. Things aren’t as bad as they were at this stage with delta. We obviously have to keep a close eye on things but let’s hope the positive news continues.

I was reading the news from S.Africa this morning. Cases levelling off and no they didn’t impose any restrictions on a population that is not as vaccinated as ours. (Yes a younger population but still -no restrictions/ no lockdown)

It doesn't look like that from the case figures...