Good news re Omicron

[Tryingtryingandtrying]

twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1468985784338366468?t=0RA5_V7CWbGjhgxfNIDbAQ&s=19

All looking pretty positive.

That's why I am asking the question who the doctor was, @Delatron, so I can assess for myself whether they are a credible source and what evidence they are basing that statement on.

I concede I may have a bee in my bonnet about that GP irresponsibly claiming that omicron was mild when she had pretty much nothing to base that on. Look at all the people posting on MN who have bought into her statement that omicron is mild and basing their decisions on whether to get a booster or stick to restrictions on the asssumption that omicron is just a cold, when the truth is, we really don't know. It doesn't help that most people can't get their head around the idea that mild for most and highly transmissible still equals high numbers of cases, which could be a huge public health issue.

On the other hand, if the doctor @Whyevencare heard on LBC actually has some new data and real evidence that omicron is mild, I shall be dancing with joy and cracking open the Christmas this evening.

FWIW, there are plenty of posters on MN who are as qualified, if not more qualified than a GP, to understand and interpret the data.

I would say our scientists know a fair bit more about the situation here than a random doctor in South Africa working in a completely different context.

But we still don’t know yet re virulence?

Modelling used same as Delta but it may not be the case.

I’ve got no issue with scientists here. I will listen to them and also doctors/ epidemiologists and experts in S.Africa. Since that is where we are getting the the data from. For me they are more credible than posters on Mumsnet.

I wouldn’t claim to know more than they do.

We’re a month in to this. We knew very quickly that Delta was more serious. No we don’t have all the info yet but every day we have more info from S.Africa. I wonder when we can draw conclusions?

They have a younger population but they also have a lower vaccination rate. We can’t focus on one without considering the other.

[quote TeloMere]South Africans have been routinely given the BCG vaccination at birth since the 1970's and I've heard of trials there giving booster doses.
Very early days and research is ongoing, but perhaps this has helped reduce the impact of Omicron.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32827313/[/quote]
This is really interesting.

My mum who's a nurse (shades of Jonny Briggs for those old enough to remember) and who's now working in a vaccination centre, said she'd heard something about BCG vaccinations and a Covid connection. She never had hers because she was found to be naturally immune to TB. Last Christmas she was in the house with my sister who was quite poorly from Covid and she never got it. She's 74 now, and hardly been careful since, has been living he life as much as possible. Still no Covid. Thank goodness.

Yes, interesting about the link to the BCG vaccination. Our class had it in 1964 (UK) after an initial Mantoux test - mine was positive which presumably meant I already had the antibodies so didn't get the BCG. We were about 14. As far as I can remember, this was commonplace in schools so is there a dip in numbers testing positive for covid in this age group?

I was born in 1975 and we had the BCG jab in Y8.

However I've also had Covid!

Oh I see what you mean 😁

There have been prior studies that suggest that the BCG gives protection against other diseases, such as flu, in children. The global BRACE trial is looking into whether the BCG can provide any protection against COVID, other off target effects and investigating the mechanism. Exeter University are undertaking the research in the UK.

www.mcri.edu.au/brace

They have a younger population but they also have a lower vaccination rate. We can’t focus on one without considering the other.

True, @Delatron but natural immunity from infection plays as much as a role as immunity from vaccination. You need to consider the level of antibodies in the population from both types of immunity.

We're also learning more about the role of genetics in the risk of severe disease and death in individuals. A recent study from Oxford suggested that 60% of South Asians and 15% of Europeans have a gene that doubles the risk of death from COVID. The same gene was rare in those with black African heritage (although you need to bear in mind that the sample size was much smaller for this group). That could potentially result in huge differences in the death/severe disease rate in SA compared to the UK.

I had the BCG jab in school. Not had covid and only had the 'flu twice. Interesting.

Yes natural immunity will play a part. Are we assuming South Africa has far higher levels than here?

@Billandben444

Yes, interesting about the link to the BCG vaccination. Our class had it in 1964 (UK) after an initial Mantoux test - mine was positive which presumably meant I already had the antibodies so didn't get the BCG. We were about 14. As far as I can remember, this was commonplace in schools so is there a dip in numbers testing positive for covid in this age group?

The BCG offers protection for about 15 years. We also know it isn't great aganst protecting against TB in adults though. I don't think there have been any studies into cross protection against other diseases in adults but the BRACE trial is looking into that, not just for COVID.

A very positive thread on Twitter!

twitter.com/pieterstreicher?s=21

@chesirecat99 don’t a high percentage of South Africans have Dutch heritage?

I haven't been able to find that data, at least not up to date data, @Delatron. I think there have been over 3 million cases in a population of 59 Million but that is pretty meaningless without knowing the level of testing nor the number of those that were reinfections or how many of them are also vaccinated (pre or post infection)...

[quote bumbleymummy]@chesirecat99 don’t a high percentage of South Africans have Dutch heritage?[/quote]
Doubt it - about 80% are black African, and about 16% white or mixed race (rest are Asian and 'other', whatever that means)

And given the country's history, it's unlikely there are that many mixed race people who have been included in the black African group. And then of course, not all the white people are of Dutch descent.

If we are concerned about "there may be factors specific to South Africans that are protecting them," then it makes most sense to compare the previous waves of COVID (esp Delta) with the current Omicron wave, and see how they compare.

The Omicron looks pretty different to the previous waves, frankly.

Not sure how things will pan out, but I now feel confident in saying that I am sure that the really apocalyptic predictions being made by some people are not going to happen.

No, @bumbleymummy. Over 80% of the South African population have black African heritage, about 8% are mixed race, 7% white European, 2% Indian/Asian.

Kokeshi123 I agree that that is the most useful comparison at this stage. Everything else is more speculative.

Sorry, I meant a high percentage of the white population have Dutch heritage but if they make up such a small percentage in general then that may make little difference irt that European gene.

Not sure if this has already been mentioned, but Nadhim Zahawi (vaccines minister) said this morning that ‘there are now people in hospital with the omicron variant’.

His choice of words is interesting- he did not say due to omicron, and he will have access to that data. More likely that people in hospital for other reasons have tested positive for omicron.

This in itself is good news as I suspect he is putting a negative spin on this to encourage people to get their boosters rather than omicron causing many hospitalisations.

Time will tell.

Yes. Why they can’t be more open about hospital admissions I don’t know. There’s a huge difference between being so ill with Covid that you need to be hospitalised and going in to hospital for something else and testing positive whilst there. Yet all those figures are lumped together.

Given its increased transmissibility surely it will spread rapidly in hospitals? Which is unfortunate but I can see the headlines now ‘hospital admissions soar due to Omnicon’ when it’s nothing of the sort.

The Omicron looks pretty different to the previous waves, frankly.

It has been suggested that Gauteng was hard hit by delta because there were fewer people with antibodies compared to other regions (based on seroprevalence in donated blood from January 2021). Part of the problem with trying to untangle the web and compare omicron to other variants is that immunity from prior infection and vaccination is much higher.

Omicron not Omnicon

Why would Sputh Africa have immunity?

Having had Delta doesn’t prevent infection from Omnicrom