Good news re Omicron

[Tryingtryingandtrying]

twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1468985784338366468?t=0RA5_V7CWbGjhgxfNIDbAQ&s=19

All looking pretty positive.

‘Not all about antibodies’ that meant to read as.

@bumbleymummy

To get the thread back on track. Some positive news from SA in that it looks like cases are slowing - without restrictions.

I don't buy it im afraid. Several reasons why its not necessarily true.

The thing to keep an eye on here is the positivity rate which is still increasing.

When the positivity rate is increasing but you are seeing a curve in reported cases and suggestions of problems with testing capacity and computer reporting, take what you are being told with a pinch of salt.

Increasing positivity rates indicate case growth even if thats not reflected in reporting. We have several examples of this happening in the uk during the pandemic.

Until the positivity rate peaks, cases dont drop.

I wouldn't get too excited about South Africa. They have a much, much younger population that's far less susceptible to severe cases in the first place.

Actually RTB, the percentage positivity was lower. Obviously we have to wait a few days to see if the trend continues but let’s hope it does.

They have a much, much younger population that's far less susceptible to severe cases in the first place

People keep claiming this. While its true that they have a younger population average than the UK, it is not exceptionally young by global standards.

In addition they have the same level of obesity as the UK, high rates of lifestyle induced diseases and on top of that a high burden of HIV and TB.

@bumbleymummy

Actually RTB, the percentage positivity was lower. Obviously we have to wait a few days to see if the trend continues but let’s hope it does.

Hope so too

Will take some pressure off here

@MaxNormal

They have a much, much younger population that's far less susceptible to severe cases in the first place

People keep claiming this. While its true that they have a younger population average than the UK, it is not exceptionally young by global standards.

In addition they have the same level of obesity as the UK, high rates of lifestyle induced diseases and on top of that a high burden of HIV and TB.

It doesn't really matter about global standards. Our population is very old by global standards, that's the issue.

Yes, they do have generally quite poor health, and if most people aren't getting very sick, that could be promising.

@bumbleymummy

Actually RTB, the percentage positivity was lower. Obviously we have to wait a few days to see if the trend continues but let’s hope it does.

That would be good if thats the case. It was still going up last I saw, but that was a day or so ago when the curve first started to appear.

If it is dropping its good. Its what you should watch for more than case numbers.

Louis Rossouw and Pieter Streicher are two good twitter accounts to follow for South African analysis.

All the worse case models are assuming complete vaccine escape and zero impact from any immunity.

Is that the case? If so, that's surely unnecessarily pessimistic.

@megustalacerveza

Yes, and being vaccinated is MORE reliable against getting infected than taking a test!

With Omicron, I'm not sure you can still say this for people who's last vaccination was in the spring/summer.

South Africans have been routinely given the BCG vaccination at birth since the 1970's and I've heard of trials there giving booster doses.
Very early days and research is ongoing, but perhaps this has helped reduce the impact of Omicron.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32827313/

Didn't the used to give BCG in the UK as well?
I had mine as a baby in SA but I'm sure DH had his at school here or at least that pinprick antibody test?

[quote Warhertisuff]@megustalacerveza

Yes, and being vaccinated is MORE reliable against getting infected than taking a test!

With Omicron, I'm not sure you can still say this for people who's last vaccination was in the spring/summer.[/quote]
Most people vaccinated in the spring should be getting boosted by now, and people who had their second dose late summer should still have a decent level of protection.

@MaxNormal

Didn't the used to give BCG in the UK as well? I had mine as a baby in SA but I'm sure DH had his at school here or at least that pinprick antibody test?

Yes but Tony Blair stopped it.

They started offering it again in areas with very high rates, I think, but it's no longer a routine thing.

Tealightsandd ah okay thanks. At least the older demographic will benefit from any potential protection then.

Interesting quiz which includes positivity rates here:

www.hartgroup.org/quiz/covid-19-quiz/

I'm not sure how long BCG protection lasts but even if only something, it's better than nothing - if it does turn out to help. The research into its possible benefit against Covid is definitely interesting.

The doctor who first alerted the world to Omicron has just confirmed on LBC radio 5 mins ago that Omicron is a mild disease so further restrictions are not necessary!

Interesting research from Japan on link between BCG and Covid 19 containment

@Whyevencare

The doctor who first alerted the world to Omicron has just confirmed on LBC radio 5 mins ago that Omicron is a mild disease so further restrictions are not necessary!

Yes, and she has absolutely no context regarding the situation here with the NHS or our demographics.

@Whyevencare

The doctor who first alerted the world to Omicron has just confirmed on LBC radio 5 mins ago that Omicron is a mild disease so further restrictions are not necessary!

Which doctor, @Whyevencare? The irresponsible GP who already said that omicron is mild based on her anecdotal evidence of half a dozen young, healthy patients who made her agenda clear when she said the world was overeacting and punishing SA for their excellent genomic sequencing services by imposting a travel ban?

No we mustn’t listen to all these doctors and experts in S.Africa. What do they know?! Posters on Mumsnet know far more..

The BCG angle is interesting. I remember it being discussed earlier in the pandemic.

@Delatron

No we mustn’t listen to all these doctors and experts in S.Africa. What do they know?! Posters on Mumsnet know far more..

I would say our scientists know a fair bit more about the situation here than a random doctor in South Africa working in a completely different context.