Given that many scientists believe that Omicron first appeared in the UK in September, if it were to have any affect on hospitalisations, we would have seen it by now.
I don’t think that’s true, because of exponentials, and the way new variants tend to become established.
When you look at Wuhan strain, there’s
evidence we had it in January 2020 and clearly there was a lot of seeding happening in February. But we didn’t see a big impact on hospitalisation until March - and that was in a totally immunologically naive population, not one with a competing strain and a lot of vaccination and infection immunity.
Similarly when you look at Delta, we know delta was seeded in a pretty significant way back in April (still pretty angry about that one) but we didn’t start see the impact on hospitalisations until mid-June at the earliest.
That’s not to say Omicron will follow the same pattern - I hope it doesn’t - but I don’t think the argument holds.