65% of hospitalisations are vaccinated.

[Twotone]

fullfact.org/health/economist-vaccination-status/?s=09

On a very basic level and without knowing facts and stats...isn't this because more of the population are now vaccinated than not?

Because most people are vaccinated and because even vaccines aren’t going to save 85-year-olds with bad Covid. They will die of something or other.
Vaccine immunity wanes over time for coronaviruses.. get a booster. Simple.
Lots of decent explanation in that article. And it doesn’t say how many actually go on to die.. I am putting money on it mostly being the very elderly or infirm.

That’s a rather inflammatory title OP the article goes on to say….

However, over time, a larger share of the population has been fully vaccinated.

The vaccines substantially, but not perfectly, protect these people from severe illness. As a result, some still become ill enough to need treatment in hospital. And this small share of a large population is now enough to make up a majority of hospital admissions.

Did you know that most people who have car crashes are wearing seatbelts?

@goodgollygosh23

On a very basic level and without knowing facts and stats...isn't this because more of the population are now vaccinated than not?

Yes - it's just maths, and you see it with all illnesses which have vaccines aimed at the whole population, e.g. MMR

Say you have 1000 people and 950 are vaccinated. And say 10% of the unvaccinated group get Covid, but only 1% of the vaccinated group do. You will have 5 unvaccinated Covid patients and 10 vaccinated ones, even though the infection rate in the unvaccinated group is 10 times higher.

Someone posted this on another thread:



I'll try again

Yes, the way stats work Op. So glad I'm vaccinated.

Google how many unvaccinated pregnant women have ended up in intensive care.

81% of the population have had 2 jabs. 90% have had one.
Only 35% have had boosters but as these were offered by age and vulnerability, most are older, or ‘at risk’.

Context is all.

The facts must be reported accurately but with the information that makes them accurate.

What is the hospitalisation : infection ratio, compared to times of simile levels of infection last winter?

Base rate fallacy. Something to Google.

Great graphic, Gertrude

Just about to post that graphic again and found I’ve been beaten to it!

The More or less podcast on base rate fallacy is really good on this.

Lots of vaccinated people in hospital is not a “gotcha” moment for people who aren’t keen on vaccines.

If 100%of the population were vaccinated, then 100% of hospitalisations would be of vaccinated people.

Isn't it around 80% of over 12s vaccinated now. So if the vaccine didn't work at all, then 80% of people in hospital should be vaccinated. And if you take age into account, if the vaccine didn't work at all, I think it should be over 90% of hospital admissions would be vaccinated people of it were to reflect the general population.

Also, that doesn't take into account whether vaccinated people are having shorter stays in hospital, and if the ultimatr outcome is more positive- i.e survived when they would have died.

The vast majority of those on ventilators in my local hospital are unvaccinated. In fact it's almost 100% unvaccinated.

Well hopefully the threads after threads about the unvaccinated clogging up beds will stop now.

Also, more old people are vaccinated, but even with a vaccine, older people are still more vulnerable to covid.

Imagine you have 100 people over age 80 of whom 90 are vaccinated, plus 100 people age 20 of whom 20 are vaccinated. Now you have 20 people in hospital - 17 of them are old (12 vax-ed) and 3 are young (all unvaxed). That means that 15/20 people in hospital are vaxed, which you might think is bad.

BUT - look just at the old people - 90% out of hospital are vaxed, only 70% in hospital are vaxed ==> the vaccine helps. And look just at the young people. 20% out of hospital are vaxed but 0% in hospital are vaxed ==> the vaccine helps.

This is a statistical error called Simpson's paradox. If you look at the whole population, you can end up with the wrong conclusion because different groups (old / young) have very different starting points.

There is a more detailed explanation here
www.ntu.ac.uk/about-us/news/news-articles/2021/11/in-the-wrong-hands,-vaccination-statistics-can-prove-deadly-simpsons-paradox-shows-why

Did you read the article you've linked to @Twotone ?

"However, over time, a larger share of the population has been fully vaccinated.
The vaccines substantially, but not perfectly, protect these people from severe illness. As a result, some still become ill enough to need treatment in hospital. And this small share of a large population is now enough to make up a majority of hospital admissions."

link again www.ntu.ac.uk/about-us/news/news-articles/2021/11/in-the-wrong-hands,-vaccination-statistics-can-prove-deadly-simpsons-paradox-shows-why

I assume you’ve not posted that thinking you’ve made a point about vaccines not working as clearly if someone did that they’d be highlighting their own stupidity and ignorance.

So I assume you’re just highlighting that vaccinated or not this is a serious virus and worthy of caution - point well made.

Masks on, get vaccinated - all the common sense things - and we can help rein in the rapid spread and avoid a full lockdown again

Yep. So can we stop saying that hospitals are ‘being overwhelmed by unvaccinated people’ now please?

@SLH2003 I have googled, and bamboozled myself! It looks really interesting. I understood the example in Wikipedia about the breathalized drivers, could you explain the implications for these COVID stats? Thank you!

They had a bit of the More or Less on pick of the week yesterday.
If you divide the hospitalised people into bands by age, within each band more will be unvaccinated than vaccinated.

This apparent paradox is quite easy to understand if you think about it for a few moments.

@bumbleymummy

Yep. So can we stop saying that hospitals are ‘being overwhelmed by unvaccinated people’ now please?

Maybe do some more in depth reading of the thread?

The message is not ‘vaccines make no difference’

@bumbleymummy

Yep. So can we stop saying that hospitals are ‘being overwhelmed by unvaccinated people’ now please?

Are you being serious? Do you really not understand the data behind the OP’s statistic?

The unvaccinated are causing hundred if not thousands of cancelled operations as they are taking up so so many ICU beds.

The selfish unvaccinated are making so many peoples’ lives miserable. I hope you’re not one of them.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0b6j20n

More or Less have a recent episode on Simpson’s paradox.

@bumbleymummy

Yep. So can we stop saying that hospitals are ‘being overwhelmed by unvaccinated people’ now please?

Sure, but we can still say ICUs are being overwhelmed by unvaccinated people.