What are the chances of lockdown this Christmas?

[43leftfeet]

I've been away this weekend (UK, but I've been distracted and not following the news).

I see there's been talk of Johnson announcing a "ban on Christmas" possibly, around the 17th - or not, depending on what happens with Omicron - is that about right?

I know we can't know yet what's going to happen, but what are people's feelings?

What do you think the restrictions, if any, are likely to be in England & Wales & in Scotland?

Those worried about the economic state of Britain - don't fucking talk to me if you are pro-Brexit (yes you, Sunak).There's a fucking magic money forest for Brexit

Thank you for assuming that anyone not wanting endless restrictions must be pro-Brexit. I certainly am not.

By the way "Brexit is impoverishing the country, therefore there will be more money for the NHS!" is not quite the killer argument you seem to think it is.

I hope that this will be the last winter of serious issues, as by next winter almost everyone will have been exposed to the virus (or its spikes) one way or another and it will no longer be "Novel."

If, however, it turns out that annual boosters really are essential to stop the NHS cracking up each winter, and if a certain % of the population continues to be refuse---for better or for worse, I think we will start to see "triage" of the unvaccinated-by-choice at some point (ie, they get put at the back of the list when there is pressure on hospitals).

Not because it's a great idea or does not involve significant ethical risks, but because there won't really be any other options on the table. The last 22 months has been a series of slippery slope decisions already (lockdowns, travel bans, vaccine passes, and now vaccine mandates in some countries too). So deprioritizing of the refusers does not look quite as unthinkable as it once did.

@GoldenOmber

Even if your quality of life is very poor - you at the very least have some kind of opportunity for that to improve once the virus is under control.

What does ‘under control’ mean, though? There isn’t going to be a point where we get cases low enough that we can lift all restrictions and have them stay low permanently. And in the long run, people mostly do choose protecting quality of life over avoiding all chance of dying.

Yes. There seems very little understanding of this from some quarters though. Lingering attachment to the idea that we can actually wrestle our way back in charge of covid if we just come up with the right combination of rules and stick to them.

If, however, it turns out that annual boosters really are essential to stop the NHS cracking up each winter, and if a certain % of the population continues to be refuse---for better or for worse, I think we will start to see "triage" of the unvaccinated-by-choice at some point (ie, they get put at the back of the list when there is pressure on hospitals).

Would that apply to anyone refusing the flu jab or any other vaccine as well? Unfortunately I think you’re right though and it will happen and it worries me - it’s almost like mandatory vaccination by stealth.

I'm not exactly sure what the issue is with mandatory vaccination. DCs have a suite of injections as standard.

I'd like to say zero but I suspect 1% of folk on here will be good little children and miss out or use it as an excellent excuse not to socialise with actual people or leave an elderly just bereaved relative alone for example rather than break the rules.
We've got loads of parties and events planned including NYE and going to everything.

@PoppityInThe

It's quite depressing but I'm certain they'll be another lockdown in Jan. They won't do it before Xmas, they'll be too much resistance. I think they realised just shutting shops and keeping schools open was a but pointless, so I suspect it'll be a 'proper' lockdown. We have to learn to live with covid, we can't be living like this or doing this every year. But I can't see that being the consensus any time soon. Mental health, radicalisation etc due to lockdowns/isolation are a greater risk than covid itself

Shutting schools again would be political suicide. There has been so much publicity the last couple of weeks of the terrible harm it has done so many children.

@rookiemere

I'm not exactly sure what the issue is with mandatory vaccination. DCs have a suite of injections as standard.

None of which are mandatory, so not at all comparable. I say this as someone who is fully vaccinated, and my DC have had everything the NHS offer and more.

@rookiemere

I'm not exactly sure what the issue is with mandatory vaccination. DCs have a suite of injections as standard.

Presumably you chose to have them vaccinated and weren't forced in any way?

(BTW I have had my first 2 covid jabs so I'm not an anti vaxxer)

rrhuth
Are you seriously trying to suggest that Brexit will or has cost more than Covid-19, we have shut are economy down, had restrictions, spent and still spending money on test and trace, etc,
Let it go, the vote was 6 years ago

@Enzbear

I'd like to say zero but I suspect 1% of folk on here will be good little children and miss out or use it as an excellent excuse not to socialise with actual people or leave an elderly just bereaved relative alone for example rather than break the rules. We've got loads of parties and events planned including NYE and going to everything.

Or you know, they're disabled or vulnerable and would prefer not to die. Could be that too.

Probably zero lock down, curfews maybe?
Lock down very lite?

"I think they realised just shutting shops and keeping schools open was a but pointless, so I suspect it'll be a 'proper' lockdown."

I very much doubt they will shut schools again and if they do I suspect the number of keyworker children would be so high they might as well not bother.

Why do you think Sunak ended furlough a few months ago? Cut universal credit a little?

He cut universal credit because he’s a twat trying to pretend that punishing the poor is a fiscally prudent way of saving money instead of looking at taxing himself and his mates.

And people fall for it.

There would be absolute outcry if schools shut again and rightly so. Reports coming out today that nearly all children are behind in their education as a result of lockdowns. This is the future workforce of the country.

No surprise about the reports coming out that every child is now behind in their education. And we won’t know the long term effects for years.

I wonder when we’ll finally admit the ‘cure’ was worse than the disease. And lockdowns didn’t even cure anything. Merely prolonged this. To great cost. We lockdown to a novel virus (if you have a healthcare system that is on its knees) it’s not a long term strategy. I don’t know why people keep bringing it up. I know nobody trusts Boris but they haven’t even gone to plan B. We are so far from a lockdown .

@Unphased

rrhuth Are you seriously trying to suggest that Brexit will or has cost more than Covid-19, we have shut are economy down, had restrictions, spent and still spending money on test and trace, etc, Let it go, the vote was 6 years ago

According to the OBR, it is likely to in the long term, yes!

Player067
Brexit hasn’t and will not shut the worldwide economy, causing all the price rises and material shortages, causing millions of deaths etc,, ( nothing to do with Brexit ) I can’t see how they can make that prediction without knowing the full course covid has torun, like most of them reports, done by remainers.

@Waxonwaxoff0

There would be absolute outcry if schools shut again and rightly so. Reports coming out today that nearly all children are behind in their education as a result of lockdowns. This is the future workforce of the country.

That, and also the reduction in contacts would be much less than last time because working parents would have to cobble together ad hoc childcare. That was also true during the last lockdown, but the numbers will be higher now because there'll no longer be a cohort of furloughed parents who can look after their DC at home.

@Waxonwaxoff0

There would be absolute outcry if schools shut again and rightly so. Reports coming out today that nearly all children are behind in their education as a result of lockdowns. This is the future workforce of the country.

I’m not surprised, only that it was hammered as a solution by so many for this long.

I wonder when we’ll finally admit the ‘cure’ was worse than the disease. And lockdowns didn’t even cure anything. Merely prolonged this. To great cost.
Lots of us said this right from the start but no leader can ever admit it. It would be political suicide. They all privately know it's true though. Look at the costs in terms of impact on education, missed cancer appointments, mental health, suicides, ruined lives, wrecked relationships - the list is never ending.
First it was three weeks to flatten the curve. Then it was vaccines are our way out of this. Well we now have very high rates of vaccination and look where we are - talk, again, of the NHS being on the verge of being overwhelmed (NHS seems to be in a perpetual state of being overwhelmed!).
People seem to think of only we could get a few more people vaccinated, all will be rosy in the garden. They are living in absolute Cuckoo Land. It's like a mass psychosis.

@Unphased

rrhuth Are you seriously trying to suggest that Brexit will or has cost more than Covid-19, we have shut are economy down, had restrictions, spent and still spending money on test and trace, etc, Let it go, the vote was 6 years ago

Yes Brexit is going to cause greater economic damage than Covid, of course.

If you find it hard to understand why maybe do a little reading.

@Unphased

Player067 Brexit hasn’t and will not shut the worldwide economy, causing all the price rises and material shortages, causing millions of deaths etc,, ( nothing to do with Brexit ) I can’t see how they can make that prediction without knowing the full course covid has torun, like most of them reports, done by remainers.

I thought you were asking people (me) to 'let it go' - so stop with the 'remainer' bullshit.

If you don't understand why Brexit is worse for the UK economy than Covid, you can educate yourself easily enough.

@rrhuth - nobody knows the damage Brexit will or will not do - absolutely nobody. There are far too many variables.
What we can say is that Covid's impacts will dwarf those of Brexit (and already have done). Covid has completely superseded Brexit. It has superseded everything. The only reason we have not seen Covid's economic fallout so far is that economies have been artificially propped up by money-printing up until now.
2022 will be very tough.

@siestalady

I doubt they will lock down as I think people will pay very little attention to it (and they know that)

^ this